Getting hot, hotter… Five takeaways from the WMO’s new five-year climate forecast

The world is on track to remain hot, or get hotter, over the next five years, according to a report released today, 28 May, by the World Meteorological Organization.

The WMO’s report – Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2025-2029 – draws on forecasts from 15 international climate institutions, including the UK’s Met Office, as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It provides some of the clearest near-term predictions of our warming world, and warns that global temperatures are set to remain at or near record highs for at least the next five years. 

“We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.

“Continued climate monitoring and prediction are essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.”

Here are five key takeaways you need to know:

We’re on track to exceed 1.5°C of global warming – even if temporarily

There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels (the average from 1850 to 1900).

The report also predicts a 70% chance that the five-year average itself will pass the 1.5°C mark.

People wash and cool down under public showers on the Camps Bay beachfront as the sun sets on another hot day in Cape Town on 16 January 2016. (Photo: EPA / Kim Ludbrook)

Why does this matter? The Paris Agreement’s “Long Term Global Goal” is to keep global warming well below 2°C, and ideally below 1.5°C, to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. These targets refer to long-term averages, typically calculated over 20 to 30 years, to account for short-term variability, and highlight the human-driven warming trend. 

Climate scientists commonly use a multi-decade average period to define climate normals and long-term trends, because if the averages change significantly, it’s considered climate change, which is driven by human activities, not natural variability.

Scientists warn that every fraction of a degree beyond this threshold brings more intense heatwaves, droughts, floods and the risk of crossing irreversible tipping points in Earth’s climate system.

If the long-term average exceeds 1.5°C, it would mark an official breach of the Paris Agreement. However, the WMO notes that these projected exceedances are likely to be temporary, not yet the long-term average that would officially breach the Paris Agreement. 

Each of the next five years is likely to be near or above current temperature records

The report forecasts that global average temperatures for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C hotter than the pre-industrial average. There is an 80% chance that at least one of these years will be the warmest on record, overtaking 2024 – the hottest year in the 175-year observational record.

Read more: It’s official — 2024 warmest year on record globally, first to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial level

Although it remains very unlikely, there is now even a 1% chance that a year in the next five could see a global temperature rise of more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be a truly alarming milestone, with potentially severe consequences for both natural and human systems.

As Professor Coleen Vogel, a climatologist with Wits University’s Global Change Unit, has explained: “This is likely the warmest Earth has been in 125,000 years. It is possible that during the Last Interglacial, about 125,000 years ago, Earth has been warmer.”

The drought-plagued Impofu Dam in the Eastern Cape. (Photo: Estelle Ellis)

But, she explained that such past periods of higher temperatures were caused by slow changes in the orbital characteristics of Earth, occurring over tens of thousands of years. 

Read more: On the fence about climate change? We check the facts with scientific experts

“The warming that has occurred since the pre-industrial era is rapid, and cannot be explained by any natural process, including slow orbital changes or changes in solar activity (no systematic trends in incoming solar radiation that can explain the warming since the pre-industrial era).”

She added: “It is not only average temperatures that are increasing, but also extreme temperature events. Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves can be detected across the planet, also in southern Africa, and these changes are also directly attributable to global warming and the underlying human-induced causes of global warming.”

The Arctic is heating more than 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world

The Arctic continues to be the climate canary in the coal mine. The WMO predicts that average winter temperatures in the Arctic will be 2.4°C higher than the recent 30-year baseline (1991 to 2020) – more than three and a half times the global mean anomaly.

This rapid Arctic warming is not just a problem for polar bears. It disrupts global weather patterns, accelerates sea level rise and threatens to release more greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost, creating feedback loops that could worsen global warming.

Rainfall patterns are shifting

The WMO’s forecast highlights major shifts in rainfall patterns over the next five years. From May to September, wetter-than-average conditions are expected in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, while the Amazon is likely to be drier than usual.

For South Africa and the wider southern African region, the report does not specifically predict new extremes – neither unusually wet nor dry conditions are highlighted for the forecast period. 

However, it is worth noting that the past five years have seen drier-than-average conditions in southern Africa, contributing to water stress and drought risk. While the models do not forecast a dramatic change for our region in the immediate future, ongoing vigilance is needed, especially as climate variability and extreme events become more common globally.

The report also notes that El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) conditions are predicted to be mixed or mainly neutral, which means less certainty about major swings in rainfall for southern Africa.

Sea ice is vanishing fast

The WMO forecasts further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk in both March and September. The loss of sea ice has far-reaching consequences, including rising sea levels, disrupted fisheries and altered weather patterns that can affect regions far from the poles – including southern Africa. DM

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