To feed a family of four just the basics costs R145.18 more than a year ago

5 Jan 2025

Despite multiple conversations and interventions by civil society and the government, the price of food baskets is still rising even if it’s at a slower rate than previous years when food inflation was in double digits. Access to nutritious food is inadequate for millions of working class people and millions relying on grants.

Maverick Citizen has been tracking the prices of 14 basic food items that a consumer can buy with R370, the amount of the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant. The cost of the basket is sitting at R412.85.

Prices in our food basket were steady from January 2024 owing to the cooling of food inflation to less than 4% from late 2023. Experts predicted an easing in food prices from previous years when food inflation was as high as 14%. However, the prices are still unaffordable for many South Africans.

Year on year, the average price of the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group’s (PMBEJD) household food basket rose from R5,238.20 in December 2023 to R5,383.38 in December 2024, an increase of R145.18 or 2.8%.

The PMBEJD’s Household Affordability Index (HAI), which measures inflation on basic expenditure items for households living on low incomes, helps explain the impact of rising costs. The organisation tracks the prices of 44 basic foods from 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries in multiple South African provinces.

The average cost of the household food basket increased by R22.34 (0.4%), from R5,361.04 in November 2024 to R5,383.38 in December 2024.

“In December, of the 44 foods tracked: 21 foods increased in price, and 22 foods decreased in price. Foods in the basket which increased in price in December 2024 by 5% or more include: spinach (9%), bananas (7%) and apples (9%). Foods in the basket which increased in price in December 2024 by 2% or more, include: samp (2%), curry powder (3%), chicken feet (3%), tomatoes (3%), carrots (2%), canned beans (2%), apricot jam (2%), and white bread (4%). Foods in the basket which decreased in price in December 2024, by 5% or more, include: potatoes (-5%), and onions (-14%),” the index reads

The Stats SA Consumer Price Index shows food inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages is 2.3%, an all-time low for 2024.

Despite steady monthly increases for most of 2024, primarily driven by dairy, meat and vegetable oil prices, the FAO Food Price index released on 3 January 2025 shows that overall in 2024 prices remained below 2023 levels.

“The FAO Food Price Index stood at 127.0 points in December 2024, down 0.6 points (0.5%) from its November level, as decreases in the price indices for sugar, dairy products, vegetable oils and cereals more than offset increases in meat. The index stood 8.0 points (6.7%) above its corresponding level one year ago, yet remained 33.2 points (20.7%) below the peak reached in March 2022. For 2024 as a whole, the index recorded 122.0 points, 2.6 points (2.1%) lower than the average value in 2023,” the Index reads

Food basket check

Workers and wages

The national minimum wage (NMW) is R27.58 an hour and R220.64 for an 8-hour day. In December 2024, with 19 working days, the maximum national minimum wage for a general worker was R4,192.16.

“For Black South African workers, one wage typically must support four people,” the HAI reads. “Dispersed in a worker’s family of four persons, the NMW is R1,048.04 per person – this is below the upper-bound poverty line of R1,634 per person per month.

“The December 2024 average cost of a basic nutritional food basket for a family of four persons is R3,799.59. On our calculations, using Pietermaritzburg-based figures for electricity and transport, and the average figure for a minimum nutritional basket of food for a family of four, puts electricity, and transport, taking up 61.1% of a worker’s wage (R2,562.97/R4,192.16).”

The index also points out that food is bought after money for transport and electricity have been paid for or set aside (leaving R1,629.19 – for food and everything else). The PMBEJD calculates that in December 2024 workers’ families will underspend on food by a minimum of 57.1% (having R1,629.19 left over after transport and electricity, and with a basic nutritional food basket costing R3,799.59).

“In this scenario there is no possibility of a worker being able to afford enough nutritious food for her family. If the entire R1,629.19 all went to buy food, then for a family of four persons, it would provide R407.30 per person per month. This is below the food poverty line of R796,” the HAI explains.

Stretching a grant

Millions of South Africans rely on different types of grants to access food. The HAI paints a grim picture of how far a child grant can go while other civil society organisations have been advocating for better access to the grants and a universal basic income grant as well as for increases that align with the food inflation and the food poverty line.

“In December 2024, the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet was R968.56. Over the past month, the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet increased by R2.11 or 0.2%. From December 2023 the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet increased by R28.83 or 3.1%. In December 2024, the Child Support Grant of R530 was 33% below the food poverty line of R796, and 45% below the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet (R968.56),” the HAI reads

This year the Gauteng Division of the High Court in Pretoria is set to rule on a Social Relief of Distress grant exclusion case brought by the Institute for Economic Justice and #PaytheGrants against the government. Millions of people who qualify to receive the grant are excluded by the system, and hundreds of thousands have challenges accessing the funds despite being approved to receive the R370 monthly grant.

Agricultural performance

Stats SA reported a sharp decline in South Africa’s agricultural performance in the third quarter of 2024, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28.8%.

In response, Agri SA and Agbiz requested the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) to conduct a detailed analysis of the data.

“While a decline was anticipated due to a challenging mid-summer drought, the extent of the decrease was surprising,” the organisations said.

BFAP, a research organisation with extensive knowledge of South African and African agriculture, has been publishing the BFAP Baseline for over 20 years and has recently issued quarterly research briefs on agricultural performance.

“The analysis indicates that the year-to-date (first three quarters of 2024) decline in real agricultural GDP should be between 5–6%, as opposed to the current official decline of 15.5%. Furthermore, the BFAP annual models project that the agricultural sector will contract by 4.8% in real terms in 2024, implying that agriculture is expected to grow in the last quarter of 2024,” the organisations said.

“This figure is also much closer to the initial BFAP Baseline real AgGDP forecast for 2024 of -2.2%, published in August 2024. These results have been shared with the Department of Agriculture, which will engage officially with Statistics South Africa. To ensure better data quality going forward, the Department of Agriculture, Agri SA, Agbiz, and BFAP will form the SA Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee starting January 2025.” DM

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Stretching a grant

Agricultural performance