Freddy recognised as the longest-lasting tropical cyclone in history

Control room operator Robert Thompson keeps an eye on the system as he participates in a hurricane response exercise at the South Florida Water Management District headquarters on 21 May 2013 in West Palm Beach, Florida. The South Florida Water Management District conducts an annual exercise before the beginning of the hurricane season to practise the agencies emergency operations response to and recovery from a catastrophic hurricane. (Photo: Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

By Julia Evans

4 Jul 2024

The World Meteorological Organisation has verified that Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which moved more than 12,000km across the Indian Ocean in early 2023 for 36 days, is the longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which traversed more than 12,000km across Earth in February and March last year, has officially been verified as the longest-lasting tropical cyclone in recorded history, totalling 36 days, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Freddy crossed the Indian Ocean basin, starting off the coast of northwest Australia and reaching southern Africa, travelling the equivalent of nearly 33% of the Earth’s circumference from 4 February to 14 March 2023.

freddy longest tropcial cyclone Last year’s Cyclone Freddy entered the history books as longest-lasting tropical cyclone in history. (Photo: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre)

It caused severe human and economic losses, with southeastern Africa bearing the brunt of the impact – raising the alarm on how important early warning systems and proper climate adaptation mechanisms are.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Cyclone Freddy’s deadly trail of destruction a grim reminder of the need to prioritise climate adaptation

After more than a year of investigation, a WMO international committee of experts set up in March 2023, a few days before the cyclone ended, were able to verify that Freddy had, at 36 days, broken the record as the longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record.

The committee, working under the auspices of the Weather and Climate Extremes Archive, conducted a detailed analysis and verification of the distance and duration of Freddy.

A satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. (Source: EUMETSAT / Meteosat-9)

cyclones john freddy Best tracks of Tropical Cyclone John (1994) and Tropical Cyclone Freddy (2023) with wind speed in colour. Inset maps show the retrogression motion occurring in both Tropical Cyclones. (Graphic: WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Committee)

The previous record holder was Tropical Cyclone John in 1994, which existed at tropical storm status or higher in the North Pacific Ocean for 29.75 days, according to the committee’s recent reanalysis.

“Freddy was a remarkable tropical cyclone, not only for its longevity but also for its ability to survive multiple land interactions, which unfortunately had significant consequences for southeast African populations,” said Chris Velden, committee member and tropical cyclone expert from the University of Wisconsin.

What made Freddy unique was the ping-pong movement across the Mozambique Channel, making landfall in Mozambique and Madagascar twice and moving to southern Malawi.

Due to its prolonged passage near and over land, Freddy was particularly destructive, with more than 1,200 people reported dead or missing in Malawi, more than 1.3 million people affected in Mozambique, with more than 180 deaths, and nearly 200,000 people affected by the first and second landfall in Madagascar.

According to the African Risk Capacity’s Tropical Cyclone Explorer model, the damage caused by Freddy was estimated at $481-million.

A changing climate

“The extremes presented for adjudication for the WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive are ‘snapshots’ of our current climate,” said Randall Cerveny, Rapporteur of Climate and Weather Extremes for WMO.

“It is possible, and indeed likely, that greater extremes will occur in the future.”

Dr Francois Engelbrecht, a meteorologist and climatologist professor at Wits University, explained to Daily Maverick that currently the scientific community doesn’t have evidence that tropical cyclones are occurring more frequently due to climate change.

But there are general findings across the world’s ocean basins of an increase in the number of Category 3 to 5 hurricanes.

Engelbrecht, who was a lead author on a pivotal Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, said: “Across the world, we can already detect an increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes that is directly attributable to global warming.”

Engelbrecht explained that along with climate change increasing the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, it was logical that tropical cyclones would last longer in a warmer world.

Tropical cyclones need warm tropical water, with sea surface temperatures higher than 27°C, to maintain their intensity. When a system is over colder water or encounters unfavourable atmospheric conditions, it can lose its tropical cyclone status – so in a warmer world, warmer tropical oceans can sustain these storms for longer periods.

Engelbrecht noted that in Mozambique, cyclones today cause about 10% more rainfall than half a century ago. He explained that in a warmer world, cyclones carry more water than in the past. This is because warmer tropical oceans evaporate more water, and the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour. When this vapour condenses to form clouds, it releases latent heat, which fuels and intensifies the storm systems.

Closer to home

The Mozambique Channel and the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar are heating up.

“I think it’s only a matter of time before the first Category 5 hurricane makes landfall with either Madagascar or Mozambique,” said Engelbrecht.

“I think it’s coming, because of climate change.”

During our interview on Wednesday evening, more than 11,000 km away in the Atlantic Ocean, a Category 5 Hurricane (named Hurricane Beryl) was headed for the south of Jamaica.

“This is the earliest Cat 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean,” explained Engelbrecht.

“And its existence is largely being attributed, at this intensity, to exceptionally high sea surface temps in the Atlantic Ocean for this time of the year.

“I think what we need to think about very seriously, as southern Africans, is the possibility of the climate system changing to such an extent that for the very first time in recorded history, we can have a Category 5 hurricane reaching Mozambique,” said Engelbrecht, referring to his research with oceanographer Dr Pedro Monteiro.

Read more about their research in Daily Maverick: The IPCC’s latest assessment report on the climate crisis: Five ‘take-home’ messages for South Africa

According to records, a Category 5 hurricane has never before made landfall in Madagascar or Mozambique. But Engelbrecht explained that climate change may make this a reality for the first time in recorded history.

And because of climate change and higher sea-surface temperatures in the Mozambique Channel, Engelbrecht warned that it may become possible for an intense tropical cyclone (Category 3 to 5 hurricane) to make landfall as far south as Maputo in Mozambique or Richards Bay in South Africa.

A further possibility is that an intense cyclone may move westwards, into the Limpopo River Valley between South Africa and Zimbabwe. At these southern latitudes, Engelbrecht points out, communities would be completely unprepared for an intense tropical cyclone, given that no such event has occurred in the past.

We must prepare

“Today it is Jamaica, tomorrow it is South Africa. That’s the big lesson,” said Engelbrecht.

“Climate change is making these systems more intense in every ocean basin of the world where they occur, in all warm oceans of the world. And I think in this specific case, we must learn from what’s happening in Jamaica.”

WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme scientific officer Anne-Claire Fontan said, “Tropical Cyclone Freddy was a textbook example of the importance of the UN Early Warnings for All initiative to ensure that everyone is protected in the next five years.

“WMO is committed to working with our partners to achieve this and tackle extreme weather and climate change-related risks – one of the biggest challenges of our times.”

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Control room operator Robert Thompson keeps an eye on the system as he participates in a hurricane response exercise at the South Florida Water Management District headquarters on 21 May 2013 in West Palm Beach, Florida. The South Florida Water Management District conducts an annual exercise before the beginning of the hurricane season to practise emergency operations response to and recovery from a catastrophic hurricane. (Photo: Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

Freddy was only the second tropical cyclone to kill more than 1,000 people in southern Africa, noted Engelbrecht. The first was Cyclone Idai in March 2019, when more than 1,300 people lost their lives in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi.

“Unfortunately we only had to wait four years for the next one, which killed about 1,500 people,” said Engelbrecht.

“It’s a sobering statistic, but a really important one, because it tells us the amount of rainfall that these systems are bringing is getting higher.” DM

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Closer to home

We must prepare