French parliamentary elections: Left-wing coalition and Macron’s centre block Le Pen’s path to power

France’s left-wing New Popular Front coalition won the most seats in the second voting round of parliamentary elections, leading pollsters said on Sunday, putting them on track for an unexpected win over the far-right National Rally (RN) party, but short of an absolute majority in parliament.

An IFOP estimate for broadcaster TF1 said the New Popular Front could win 180-215 seats in parliament in the second voting round, while an Ipsos poll for France TV projected 172-215 seats for the left-wing bloc. An Opinionway poll for C News TV said the New Popular Front would win 180-210 seats while an Elabe poll for BFM TV projected a range of 175-205 seats.

President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc was projected to be narrowly ahead of Marine Le Pen’s RN party in the battle for second place, according to these polls.

Two hundred and eighty-nine seats are needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament. France was on course for a hung parliament in Sunday’s election, with a leftist alliance unexpectedly taking the top spot ahead of the far right, in a major upset that was set to bar Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from running the government.

The outcome, if confirmed, will leave parliament divided into three big groups with hugely different platforms and no tradition at all of working together.

The leftist alliance gathers the hard left, the Socialists and Greens, who have long been at odds with one another.

Cries of joy and tears of relief broke out at the leftist alliance’s gathering in Paris when the estimates were announced. At the Greens’ headquarters activists screamed in joy, embracing one another.

By contrast, at the far-right party headquarters, the announcements were met by stunned silence, clenched jaws and tears as young National Rally (RN) members checked their phones.

The result would in any case be humiliating for Macron, whose centrist alliance, which he founded to underpin his first presidential run in 2017, was projected to be narrowly second and win 150-180 seats.

But it will also be a major disappointment for Marine Le Pen’s nationalist, eurosceptic National Rally. The RN, which had for weeks been projected to win the election, was seen getting 115 to 155 seats. The first official results were expected later on Sunday, with the results from most, if not all, constituencies likely to be in by the end of the day or the early hours of Monday.

Voters have punished Macron and his ruling alliance for a cost of living crisis and failing public services, as well as over immigration and security.

Le Pen and her party tapped into those grievances, spreading their appeal way beyond their traditional strongholds along the Mediterranean coast and in the country’s northern rust belt.

That the left-wing alliance managed to defeat them was in part thanks to some limited cooperation by Macron’s centrist Together alliance and the left, designed to block the far right’s ascent to power.

Le Pen’s rivals pulled more than 200 candidates out of three-way races in the second round in a bid to create a unified anti-RN vote. The constitution mandates that there can be no new parliamentary election for another year, so an immediate repeat vote is not an option. DM

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