Gabon and the role of political transitions in predicting and preventing coups in Africa

In August, Gabon faced a pivotal crossroads when a coup unfolded, marking the end of a staggering 56-year rule by the Bongo family. The dynasty had come to symbolise both political continuity and calamitous governance. 

Led by high-ranking Republican Guard officers, the tightly controlled transfer of power swiftly deposed long-standing president Ali Bongo Ondimba. His ousting has ushered in a new era of uncertainty, with a transitional government led by General Brice Oligui Nguema. 

Over the years, Central Africa has been marred by political instability and recently, coups, reflecting a region plagued by governance challenges. In this environment, positive political transitions could become proactive tools for consolidating governance and preventing instability and coups. 

In Gabon, political, social and economic factors converged to create a volatile climate, leaving the country vulnerable to a power vacuum after Omar Bongo’s death in June 2009. His son Ali Bongo became president after the eviction of his father’s former companions and a contested election in August 2009. Perceptions of political injustice and polarisation followed, heightened by the absence of a transparent and inclusive electoral process and an unstable political system. 

Each of Ali Bongo’s three election wins — in 2009, 2016 and 2023 — were disputed. In 2016, protesters set the country’s Parliament building alight after his re-election. Ironically, his main rival was his former brother-in-law, Jean Ping, who previously held high-ranking posts in the elder Bongo’s cabinet. These developments led to widespread political division, increasingly acrimonious rhetoric, violent clashes between political factions and electoral disputes. 

The oil-rich nation’s August 2023 election was plagued by complaints of corruption. Although Ali Bongo secured over two-thirds of the vote, the election lacked transparency and legitimacy. During his reign, Ali Bongo was accused of buying off opponents and appointing family members to strategic positions. During the controversial 2023 polls, no international observers or journalists were present, a curfew was imposed, and the country’s borders were closed. 

Bongo’s disregard for the rule of law and democracy provided fertile ground for opposition parties seeking change — but also fuelled popular discontent and provided impetus for political upheaval.

Despite its above-average GDP per capita of $17,440, Gabon has high levels of income inequality and poverty. In 2019, 43.5% of the population lived below the poverty line — the fourth highest poverty rate among Africa’s upper-middle-income economies. Unemployment is high, with 40% of young people out of work in 2020. 

Gabon’s economic downturn, driven by fluctuations in oil prices, has undermined the government’s ability to provide for its citizens. As the economy weakened, the government struggled to maintain public support, and corruption scandals further eroded the population’s trust. 

With this type of governance in place for 57 years, the conditions were ripe for social unrest and an unconstitutional change of regime. 

Coup red flags