Big Gauteng wins for ANC, DA — but MK, EFF in most interesting tussle for Bekkersdal silver medal

Ward 1 (Vaal Marina Mooilande) Midvaal, Sedibeng: DA 58% (56%) ANC 35% (28%) MK 5%  SEFM 2% TRUTH <1%

The setting: Ward 1 borders both the Free State and Mpumalanga. It is the southern edge of Gauteng. Most of the voters are in Vaal Marina on the Vaal Dam and in and around the plot area of Mooilande near Three Rivers. This vast ward is just more than half the size of the entire area of the City of Johannesburg and its 135 wards. There is a sizeable number of voters in the area of Panfontein, next to the Vaal River, almost in line with the Lethabo power station across the river in the Free State. Midvaal’s seat of power is in Meyerton. It forms part of the Sedibeng district which includes Vanderbijlpark and Heidelberg.

The 2021 local government election: The DA beat the ANC by a margin of two to one, a victory built on large majorities in the two most populous voting districts around Vaal Marina and Mooilande. The parties shared four voting districts. The ANC ran up the numbers in Panfontein but it was not enough to challenge the DA’s votes in the bank from Vaal Marina and Mooilande. The EFF came third in the ward with 8% and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) fourth with 6%. 

The DA won 19 of the 29 seats in Midvaal, up from the 17 it won in 2016. The ANC was second with six, down a single seat from the previous election. The FF+ came third with two, up one seat. Two other parties won a single seat. 

The 2024 provincial election: The DA won 53% of the vote in Ward 1, up from 40% in 2019. The ANC came second with 28%, well down from its 42% in 2019. The FF+ came third with 7%, down three percentage points from 2019. The EFF was fourth with 6%, slightly up from their 2019 result. 

The DA was the most popular party in Midvaal, with 56%, up from 48% in 2019. The ANC came second but fell from 36% to 22%. Then came the EFF with 6%, dipping slightly from 2019, uMkhonto Wesizwe (5%) and the FF+ (4%, down from 7%). 

The by-election: The ward councillor, a veteran councillor in the municipality, died from illness. The DA and the ANC were not joined by the EFF and the FF+ on the ballot, but did have to contend with three other parties, including the regional Socialist Economic Freedom Movement (SEFM). 

The DA beat the ANC by 374 votes to retain Ward 1. Differential turnout was very interesting to observe. It ranged from 13% at Eureka Farm to 80% in the ANC stronghold of Mamello. The ANC won 82% of the vote in Mamello. It also won 73% in the fourth-most-populous voting district of Panfontein. Turnout in Panfontein was just above the ward average.

In Vaal Marina, the most vote-rich part of the ward, 55% of voters turned out. The 310-vote majority for the DA was key to retaining this ward. The big question for the DA coming out of this by-election was the low turnout in Mooilande, next to Three Rivers, where only a third of voters turned out. The DA might have beaten the ANC by 307 votes here but its ward majority would have been higher if more voters had turned out. 

Even without the EFF on the ballot, MK was unable to build on its 5% return from the 2024 elections. This suggests that EFF voters who did show up cast their vote for the ANC, not MK. 

Poll: 43% (56%)

Ward 35 (Bekkersdal Thambo) Rand West City, West Rand: ANC 61% (63% PR*) MK 17% EFF 15% (18% PR) COPE 4% Azapo 3% (6% PR) TRUTH <1%

The setting: Bekkersdal is a large township between the mining town of Westonaria and Randfontein, the seat of Rand West City. The ward includes the informal settlement of Thambo. The West Rand includes Krugersdorp and Carletonville. 

The 2021 local government election: The ANC won 55% of the ward vote and 63% of the proportional representation (PR) vote. The EFF came second with 16% of the ward vote and 18% of the PR vote. The ANC’s margin of victory on the PR ballot was 480 votes. An independent candidate was third with 12%. The Azanian People’s Organisation (Azapo) came fourth with 7% of the ward vote and 6% of the PR vote.

The ANC lost its outright majority in Rand West City in 2021. It won 32 of the 69 available seats. It formed a coalition with the Patriotic Alliance (PA), which won two seats, and the African Independent Congress (AIC), which garnered a single seat. This gave the coalition 35/69 seats. The DA won 16 seats to finish second and the EFF came third with 11. The FF+ bagged three for fourth place. The rest of the parties have one seat each.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC came close to the 60% mark with 58% of the vote in Ward 35. The EFF was the only other party to get into double figures (16%), followed by MK (9%). The DA was fourth with 5%, ahead of Azapo and the Congress of the People (COPE) (both on 3%).

Read more: By-elections hub

The ANC fell from 55% to 43% in Rand West City. The sharp decline was largely because of fourth-placed MK which won 8% of the vote. The DA was runner-up with 21%, up by a single percentage point. The EFF was third with 15%, sliding by a solitary percentage point. The PA came fifth with 3%. 

The by-election: The ward councillor died in a car accident. The ANC beat MK by 479 votes and the EFF by 505 to comfortably retain this Bekkersdal ward. The party did considerably better in the Thambo informal settlement where it won 73% of the vote. It won just under 50% at the Maputle School in a more established part of Bekkersdal. It ended up slightly below its 2021 showing and just above its 2024 provincial ballot showing. It will be happy with the big win. 

The race for second place was the most interesting contest, with MK earning bragging rights, beating the EFF by 26 votes. The EFF came close to beating MK by two votes to one here in May, but this time MK won the silver medal. The 61-vote margin in Thambo informal settlement between MK and the ANC proved pivotal. 

Poll: 41% (40%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 12 February when the ANC will defend a competitive seat in uMhlabuyalingana in the far north of KwaZulu-Natal, as well as a safe seat in Matatiele in the Eastern Cape. DM

The proportional representation (PR) ballot is the mode of comparison here due to the relatively strong showing of an independent candidate on the ward ballot in 2021. The independent candidate did not run again.