Genuine growth or smoke & mirrors? EFF’s electoral performance may define SA’s future

Party leader Julius Malema during the Economic Freedom Fighters’ 10th anniversary celebration at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg on 29 July 2023. (Photo: Gallo Images / Frennie Shivambu)

By Stephen Grootes

10 Jan 2024

One of the most important questions on which South Africa’s political future will hinge is whether the EFF will gain more votes in this year’s national and provincial elections than in 2019. The result will decide what role the EFF could play in national or provincial governments, with an accompanying crucial impact on governance and policy. Still, assessing its likely share of the vote several months before the polls may be very difficult, without accurate, publicly available polling data.

In public, supporters of the EFF have expressed optimism about their party’s growth.

From time to time, their leaders will welcome new members to the party while hosting large public meetings where many people wear red.

One of the most important events last year was Julius Malema’s triumphant speech in front of a full FNB Stadium, when the EFF’s 10th anniversary climaxed with him being raised above the crowd on a crane (and dropping his mic).

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-07-30-malema-celebrates-effs-10th-anniversary-with-lots-of-promises-and-a-vow-to-unseat-the-anc-in-2024/

Only the ANC has been able to fill a large stadium in this way and it has recently found that difficult. By way of contrast, a bid by the Patriotic Alliance to fill the Orlando Stadium several weeks after the EFF event was an abject failure.

Also, several prominent people have recently donned the red overalls.

eff electoral performance Mzwanele Manyi is sworn in as a Member of Parliament on 7 June 2023. (Photo: Zwelethemba Kostile /GCIS)

eff mkhwebane Busisiwe Mkhwebane is sworn in as a Member of Parliament on 20 October 2023. (Photo: Gallo Images / Brenton Geach)

They include Mzwanele Manyi, the former spokesperson of the former leader of the ANC (and the current campaigner for the new “uMkhonto Wesizwe” party), Jacob Zuma. For the first time, a former Public Protector has taken an active political role, with Busisiwe Mkhwebane joining Manyi as an MP for the EFF in the National Assembly.

Just before the Christmas break, in what was probably a last-gasp attempt to feed his addiction to media attention, the liar and fraud Carl Niehaus publicly joined the EFF too.

eff shutdown protest EFF leader Julius Malema (left), former ANC NEC member Carl Niehaus (centre) and Mzwanele Manyi during the national shutdown protest in Pretoria on 20 March 2023. (Photo: Gallo Images / Frennie Shivambu)

The EFF is also clearly playing a bigger role in councils around the country.

In metros like Joburg, and particularly in Ekurhuleni, EFF members play a key role in making decisions.

The past eighteen months have seen a huge amount of speculation that the EFF could form a coalition with the ANC, should the ANC fall below 50% in next year’s polls.

All of this could give the impression that the EFF enjoys more political power than it has ever had.

There are also some reasons to believe that this power can only grow, along with its share of the vote.

The living conditions of millions of people around the country have deteriorated dramatically over the past five years. In particular, youth unemployment appears to be higher now than it has ever been.

South Africa’s racialised inequality has seemingly only increased over time, leading to huge anger among ordinary South Africans.

However, some of the party’s apparent progress may also come with a cost which could limit its future growth – there are also signs of the EFF possibly losing momentum, along with the likelihood of some of the recent actions and decisions by Malema damaging the party in the longer term.

For example, while it is true that the EFF did fill the FNB Stadium, it required months of preparation and hard work. Each of the party’s 1,170 public representatives had to spend their own money to fill a bus, or buses.

eff fnb Party leader Julius Malema during the Economic Freedom Fighters’ 10th anniversary celebration at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg on 29 July 2023. (Photo: Gallo Images / Frennie Shivambu)

When 210 of them failed to do this, they all lost their positions as a result. This must have created chaos in some structures of the party – a problem that was exacerbated by Malema’s public humiliation of some of these people.

All of this for a single afternoon of spectacle.

Then, while it is true that the EFF has a bigger role in governance than it has ever had before, the potential for scandal has also increased.

The party’s Gauteng leader, Ekurhuleni Finance MMC Nkululeko Dunga, was involved in a car accident last year, in which he was hurt. It then turned out that the luxury car in which he was travelling was owned by a company that had contracts with the metro.

This does not mean the EFF is different from other parties in this regard. In recent times an ANC MP has been charged with murdering his wife, while a DA councillor has been accused of killing his family. But it shows how the potential for scandal, and the volume of it, grows with increasing roles in governance.

Also, while people like Niehaus, Mkhwebane and Manyi are joining the party, none has brought any constituency. It is not clear what they bring to the party at all. It simply shows that some people may go to the EFF as the political home of last resort.

The fact that both Manyi and Mkhwebane have been promoted to important salaried positions in Parliament means they must have jumped over people who had belonged to the party for longer.

At the same time, as has been noted many many times, the EFF is still dependent on its current leader, Malema, and his deputy, Floyd Shivambu. Neither has ever faced any leadership challenge, and Malema himself has indicated he would never allow someone to challenge him for the leadership of the party.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-09-08-vbs-theft-money-laundering-lifes-little-luxuries-julius-malemas-time-of-spending-dangerously/

This suggests that while the EFF may be able to grow its membership, it is not able to grow people. In other words, people who join the EFF must be content to occupy a position only at the pleasure of Malema and those close to him.

It also suggests that those who would like to join the EFF must be content to know there is a ceiling on their ambitions, and that if they are seen to fail, they could, and likely would, be publicly humiliated.

This particular approach by Malema may turn out to place a ceiling on his own ambitions. It seems impossible to see how he could attain the highest office in the land without a movement behind him involving people who themselves are growing into leadership positions.

It is also unlikely that he will attract quality people to the EFF if they believe they could never be its leader one day.

In the meantime, the real aim of the EFF may well be to force the ANC to work with it in some kind of formal or informal coalition.

This means that Malema both needs to work to reduce the number of votes that the ANC gets, but must also ensure that his campaign does not make it impossible for him to work with the ANC after the polls.

At the same time, it does appear that the mood in the ANC is moving against working with the EFF.

There has been consistent reporting, first in Daily Maverick but also in other publications, that the ANC national executive committee will formally end its working relationships with the EFF at the end of January.

And, as has been pointed out previously, the decision on working with the EFF could well split the ANC almost down the middle.

Some in the party, such as Gauteng leader and Premier Panyaza Lesufi, have shown they will do anything to stay in power. Others, such as President Cyril Ramaphosa, are likely to be much less keen.

What is clear is that it is still difficult to know how much momentum the EFF really has, and whether it can translate some of its presumed progress into a much larger share of the vote. Which makes the incoming elections potentially even more dangerous. DM

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