Grappling with the Fourth Industrial Revolution from behind wire fences

The theme of the Cape Town World Economic Forum (WEF) on Africa 2019 in Cape Town is “Shaping Inclusive Growth and Shared Futures in the Fourth Industrial Revolution”. Even by the standards of the forum, it’s a mouthful.

It’s also slightly surreal. The WEF takes place at an odd moment when focusing on the intricacies of the industrial revolutions seems far from immediate politics. The distinction was also made physically graphic at the WEF by the #AmINext marches that confronted the hastily assembled wire fences thrown up around the pristine austerity of the Cape Town International Conference Centre.

Seldom have the street and the conference centre seemed so far apart. The irony of physical closeness and conceptual distance wafted into the subject matter of the conference itself, as if to say: is it possible to discuss the grand matters of the globe when citizens’ physical safety is under threat, whether from xenophobic marauders or grotesque rapists?

Well...life goes on, as does the conference. But the artistry was suddenly vested not only in the subject matter itself but also in the speakers’ tricky juggling acts, trying to balance the larger 4IR intellectual gymnastics with the more prosaic issue of what was happening just outside the door.

The conference session most immediately devoted to the 4IR issues took place on Thursday 5 September, and was intended to feature President Cyril Ramaphosa, but Ramaphosa ducked out to address protesters at Parliament, in a neat act of political manoeuvring.

It was left to Finance Minister Tito Mboweni to read the address, which, being Mboweni, he interspersed with his own comments.

So what is the fourth industrial revolution? Is it more than a phrase? Is it meaningful? In fact, it’s hard to tell.

Technically, the fourth industrial revolution is the unfolding of disruptive technologies and trends such as the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, virtual reality (VR) and artificial intelligence (AI) which will all change the way we live and work. It is described by its conceiver, the founder and force behind the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab, as the advent of “cyber-physical systems”.

So, that makes it clear, right? Actually, not so much. In some ways, it’s easier to conceive of it progressively. The first industrial revolution was the mechanisation powered by steam, the second was mass production powered by electrification, the third was computerisation powered by digitalisation. But the fourth is trickier to define, if it really exists as a distinct entity at all, rather than being a combination of the effects of the first three.

That may be because we are all in it; we don’t have the benefit of history to allow glib summaries. Yet, there is an atmosphere of apprehension and concern that surrounds the idea, mainly because policymakers are so worried about the job-destroying capacity of artificial intelligence and the concomitant increase of inequality, as well as the implications for intrusion into personal privacy.

To quote Schwab himself from his book on the topic, “The changes are so profound that, from the perspective of human history, there has never been a time of greater promise or potential peril. My concern, however, is that decision-makers are too often caught in traditional, linear (and non-disruptive) thinking or too absorbed by immediate concerns to think strategically about the forces of disruption and innovation shaping our future.”

In some ways, the idea of 4IR is technophobic and regressive. It is something to be feared and guarded against. It’s the inevitable march of progress, shredding old systems and causing discomforting, unpredictable change.

In other ways, it constitutes a laudable early-warning system. The world is inevitably changing, so best be aware of the changes and make sure the beast is adequately tethered.

So, back to Cape Town and Ramaphosa’s contribution. He said – or at least Mboweni said on his behalf:

“Disruptive trends and technologies are changing the way we live, the way we work and do business, and the way we govern. We must respond with agility to craft a roadmap for navigating this new environment.

“We must ensure that our citizens are prepared, and, if necessary, that they are shielded from any adverse consequences. As African countries, we must take advantage of the opportunities presented by a technological change to enhance our competitiveness in the global landscape. This rests on our ability to adapt and to evolve.”

The short address captured much of the debate: disruption, opportunities, technological change, competitiveness. Somehow, the catalogue of cliches floats over the harsh realities of real life. But is this all too glib?

Perhaps. From the perspective of the protesters again filling Wale Street, definitely.

The formal speech included a final comment. “Just as the Greek god Prometheus seized fire and gave it to man, let us harness technology for the sake of human progress”.

Well, yes. Except, doing so didn’t end all that well for Prometheus.

As it happens, Mboweni didn’t mention that. Instead, he said, “That’s the end of the president’s speech. May I add we welcome all Africans who have come to the conference. We welcome all Africans who live in South Africa. We are all Africans. God bless Africa.” BM