There is no logic in clinging to the gutted anti-crime dispensation that has driven South Africa to the brink of failure as a state due to the prevalence of corruption with impunity in the land.
The humble farmyard bird, the turkey, features in the idioms of the English language on both sides of the Atlantic, if not worldwide.
In the US, the saying “Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas” has morphed into “turkeys don’t vote for Thanksgiving”, but both sayings relate to the presence of a whole roasted turkey on the dinner table, be it at Thanksgiving or at Christmas celebrations. The idea is that turkeys would not favour the fate of being roasted on whichever special occasion.
The Oxford Dictionary of Humorous Quotations mentions that a commentator in the Independent Magazine traced the origin of the phrase to British Liberal Party politician David Penhaligon, who is quoted as saying “us voting for the pact is like a turkey voting for Christmas” in reference to the 1977 Lib–Lab pact that he opposed.
Urge for devolution
Wikipedia cites a use in relation to the Scottish urge for devolution that is more apt, and arguably applicable, to current political conditions in South Africa:
“In 1979 Labour Prime Minister James Callaghan was faced with a vote of no confidence called by the Scottish National Party, who were upset with Labour’s treatment of the recent Scottish devolution referendum. In the resulting vote the Scottish nationalists sided with the Conservative opposition against the Labour government, despite the fact that the Conservatives opposed devolution.
“During his speech, Callaghan stated that ‘If they win, there will be a general election. I am told that the current joke going around the House is that it is the first time in recorded history that turkeys have been known to vote for an early Christmas.’ The Scottish National Party ultimately lost most of its representation in the resulting election. In 2000 British MP Teresa Gorman, who opposed the Maastricht Treaty, stated: ‘If the House of Commons voted for Maastricht it would be like 651 turkeys voting for Christmas.’”
Quite often the Accountability Now advocacy of legislated reform of the criminal justice system to render it constitutionally compliant and more appropriate for winning the fight against that secretive and calculated crime called grand corruption is met with the dismissive criticism that “turkeys don’t vote for Christmas”.
The purpose of this article is to examine whether by not “voting for Christmas” the African nationalists will suffer the same fate as the Scottish nationalists who voted for an early Christmas and lost their seats in the resultant early elections.
Read more: Breytenbach’s anti-corruption commission bill is the kick-start South Africa needs
It is logical, if not good common sense, for ANC politicians who remain in office in our seventh Parliament and the executive branch of government to be concerned about their prospects of keeping their seats and positions in the Cabinet after the next election, which must be held by mid-2029 and could be held at any time before then should the grand coalition that the ANC has assembled crumble, resulting in the calling of an early election to solve the impasse that a hung Parliament occasions.
The popularity stakes in South African politics show that the ANC is on the wane as a popular party. From a high of close to 70% in the past, it currently stands at 40% of the seats in Parliament, down from 57% in 2019.
The downward trend is accelerating at an ever more rapid pace. The ANC brains trust must know that its chances of restoring itself to a majority will depend on its performance in the government that governs between now and the next election, whether it is held in 2029 or before then due to a successful vote of no confidence in the president and his Cabinet. This vote could come at any time that an intractable logjam appears.
Well-founded fear
The ANC will want to govern well and do good deeds that enhance its popularity with voters. Its leaders will be painfully aware that the 40% to which it has sunk represents only 16% of eligible voters. Their well-founded fear may be that those who did not vote for whatever reason in 2024 may, as a result of the new dispensation set up since the 2024 elections, be encouraged to register to vote, to actually vote and to get to the polling stations well before they close, too.
The public perception is that the new opposition formations and those in the current government (who are not the ANC, but are on the right path to restore peace, progress and prosperity to all in South Africa) will trounce the ANC in the next elections. If the ANC’s opponents are able to mobilise the voters who did not vote at all and can maintain their current support, then Cyril Ramaphosa will be the last ANC member to be president of South Africa.
The significance of these considerations will weigh heavily upon those in the ANC whose votes can affect the trajectory of the party and the country. Losing the presidency involves losing the considerable powers that are vested in him or her.
Of particular interest to those protective of the “turkeys” in the ANC patronage orbit of tenderpreneurism, corruption and State Capture is the fact that the president alone is able to remit sentences imposed by the courts, and to pardon offenders who have been convicted and sentenced by the courts after being tried for whatever form of corruption is proved against them. The abuse of the parole system to temper the wind to the shorn ANC lambs who fall foul of the law is legendary.
The Zondo Commission of Inquiry into State Capture has identified almost a hundred ANC bigwigs who need to be considered for prosecution for their involvement in State Capture. (Only one, Zizi Kodwa, has been charged. None have been convicted.)
Corruption
It has, in all, identified roughly 1,500 possible offenders in its dip into investigating State Capture – a dip that did not involve corruption at local and provincial levels, with the exception of a few tenders in the Free State provincial administration and in the Johannesburg metro.
It is fair to say that the Zondo Commission identified the bad habits of those in ANC government positions, but did not seek to identify each one so involved.
There is likely to be an unheavenly host that joins the usual suspects.
The culture of impunity in the land is so entrenched and accepted that it even led to one corrupt official suing for defamation because he was called corrupt, only to lose because the judge found that he was corrupt. An editorial in The Citizen commented:
“At the end of a long and complex case full of intricate legal arguments and some damning evidence against (Jason) Mkhwane, High Court in Johannesburg Judge Stuart Wilson found that the description of Mkhwane as a ‘looter’ was ‘fair comment on true facts’.
“In the judgment, Wilson found that Mkhwane had told Dyakala that certain contracts and tenders in the municipality should only be awarded to companies favoured by the ANC. Effectively, what the judgment does is side with a whistle-blower.”
The criminal justice system is so broken that it is unlikely that Jason Mkhwane will be tried criminally or be obliged, after conviction, to throw himself on the mercy of the president. Should the president no longer be a member of the ANC, the prospects of mercy are dim for those convicted of corruption during the waning ascendancy of the ANC.
This unsatisfactory outcome is less likely to occur if the reforms currently being promoted as a private member’s bill by feisty DA MP Glynnis Breytenbach are passed by Parliament and become law soon.
All of these factors must weigh heavily on the minds of those in the ANC who are either corrupt themselves or are prepared to protect their corrupt colleagues in politics, business, and in the public administration or state-owned enterprises that have been abused by ANC illegal fundraising over the years.
Read more: Let’s not fool ourselves – corruption in the public sector is theft from the poor
Time will tell if the greed of the corrupt and the softness of the attitude of the ANC caucus toward corruption will conspire to oppose the Breytenbach bills. There is ample evidence of greed and softness on corruption as shown by the ANC’s support for the likes of Zizi Kodwa and even the leader of the opposition, John Hlophe, by its welcoming back into its ranks in Parliament known chancers like Dina Pule, Malusi Gigaba and Faith Muthambi.
Will greed and tolerance of the corrupt conspire to “vote for Christmas” by opposing the Breytenbach bills?
Or will good sense prevail in the form of ANC support for the Breytenbach bills?
These bills, prototypes of which are Appendices 4 and 5 in “Under the Swinging Arch”, will require the two-thirds majority needed for the constitutional amendment that they envisage. Breytenbach has in mind a new Chapter Nine entity which she calls the “Anti-Corruption Commission”. It would comply with the criteria set by the Constitutional Court. It would have a mandate to prevent, combat, investigate and prosecute all instances of serious corruption and organised crime effectively and efficiently in a way that has not been seen in South Africa since the demise of the Scorpions in 2009.
It is in the self-interest of the ANC and its fellow travellers that this reform be supported by its caucus in Parliament. The “long game” is over, no more kicking for touch, “mulling”, referrals to committees or other backsliding can be afforded.
Those comrades who fall foul of the law because of the work of the new entity would far rather not be caught, obviously, but would also prefer, if convicted, to throw themselves on the mercy of an ANC president than on a new president who is not from the ANC.
If the ANC opposes the bills, three main consequences are foreseen:
Punishment at the polls
Firstly, it will, and correctly so, be seen as soft on corruption; secondly, it will precipitate the departure of the DA from the government, and thirdly, it will receive further punishment at the polls, in the form of loss of support, when next the electorate expresses itself.
The ANC is likely to suffer the same political fate as the Scottish nationalists who voted themselves out of the UK parliament in 1979. It would also deprive those of its cadres who are convicted of the opportunity of seeking mercy from the last ANC president of South Africa.
If the greed of those in the ANC involved in corruption prevails over a positive vote on the introduction of the new Chapter Nine entity, they will have only themselves to blame for the demise of their party in the next elections.
There is no logic in clinging to the gutted anti-crime dispensation that has driven South Africa to the brink of failure as a state due to the prevalence of corruption with impunity in the land.
The court that made the anti-corruption rules that the ANC, quite illegally, has not put in place since 2011, said it best when it said:
“There can be no gainsaying that corruption threatens to fell at the knees virtually everything we hold dear and precious in our hard-won constitutional order. It blatantly undermines the democratic ethos, the institutions of democracy, the rule of law and the foundational values of our nascent constitutional project.
“It fuels maladministration and public fraudulence and imperils the capacity of the state to fulfil its obligations to respect, protect, promote and fulfil all the rights enshrined in the Bill of Rights. When corruption and organised crime flourish, sustainable development and economic growth are stunted. And in turn, the stability and security of society is put at risk.
“This deleterious impact of corruption on societies and the pressing need to combat it concretely and effectively is widely recognised in public discourse, in our own legislation, in regional and international conventions and in academic research.” DM
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