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How Russia uses ‘hybrid warfare’ to amplify its narratives in the South African discourse

How Russia uses ‘hybrid warfare’ to amplify its narratives in the South African discourse
An interaction network highlighting the X users and communities that the suspected buzzer accounts amplified the most by reposting their content. They mixed together both international and South African-specific content. South African communities mostly included the EFF and MK supporters and accounts discussing divisive issues such as crime and xenophobia.
Herman Wasserman and Murmur
By Herman Wasserman and Murmur
22 Nov 2024
Facebook
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With the ascendance of technologies such as the internet and artificial intelligence, ‘hybrid warfare’ has only grown in prominence in recent decades. Arguably, few countries have consistently innovated in the hybrid warfare space over the past century like Russia has.

All countries work to shape the world in their image. Some use soft power techniques such as creating relationships based on goodwill, through dependence (such as financial support and funding), or through media ownership, for example. 

Others use hard power techniques such as military or economic force. A third technique is what is referred to as “hybrid warfare”, which combines “soft” and “sharp” power by blending conventional warfare and cyberattacks with influencing methods, such as mis- and disinformation, public diplomacy and foreign political interference. With the ascendance of technologies such as the internet and artificial intelligence, this third technique has only grown in prominence in recent decades. Arguably, few countries have consistently innovated in the hybrid warfare space over the past century like Russia has. 

While other countries indubitably play a role in shaping South Africa’s politics, this article focuses on how South Africa is swept up in Russia’s geopolitical hybrid warfare as it seeks to build what it refers to as “a multi-polar world”.

Previous research has shown how Russia uses its official embassy account to interact with the extremes of South Africa’s political spectrum, including the podcaster (and former chief of staff for Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen) Roman Cabanac who recently enjoyed a Russian government-funded tour of that country’s nuclear capabilities (a recurring theme,) and Independent Online (IOL) and its former columnist, Modibe Modiba, now one of the co-founders of pro-Radical Economic Transformation/MK “unfiltered & uncensored” news platform, The Insight Factor.

The latest example of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy has been a recently discovered network of suspected inauthentic, pro-Russia “buzzer” (an Indonesian term that refers to a social media user who industriously reposts, or “buzzes”, certain messages or perspectives to promote them) accounts has been identified that generated nearly one million posts on South African X (formerly Twitter) in the past nine months alone, injecting Russia’s perspective into domestic discussions about global conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and the evolving Middle East conflict, as well as into local debates around xenophobia, electoral processes (including promoting the MK Party’s “Big Lie” — example post amplified by these accounts), and party politics.

The top nine profiles suspected South African ‘buzzers’ amplifying content from a network of pro-Russia accounts. (Image: Supplied)



The content that they inject into South African discussions emphasises Russia’s supposed self-defence in the face of supposed Western (i.e. the US, Europe and Nato) hypocrisy and aggression with regards to Ukraine, the superior ability of authoritarian regimes to get things done, conservative family values (including anti-LGBTQ+ messaging), a staunchly pro-Palestine stance, anti-Zionism, the West’s legacy of colonialism, and even conspiracy theories such as the supposed building of biological warfare labs in Africa. Thus, legitimate, urgent global issues like the Middle East conflict are co-opted and mixed up with outlandish conspiracy theories to aid global narrative control. Oftentimes, the Trojan horse of BRICS — another important, legitimate issue — is used to slip these issues into the discussion.

Examples of the kinds of content that is amplified, or 'buzzed', by suspected local pro-Russia buzzers. (Image: Supplied)



The suspected buzzer network amplifies content that mixes factual information with half-truths and historical wrongs with false equivalencies to create a case for a hypocritical, late-stage capitalist, imperialist West in decline, and a multi-polar, pro-African, anti-imperialist alternative in ascendance. It is a heady mix of issues that also undermines the primacy of democracy and human rights in the process.

An avalanche of posts


The suspected buzzer accounts came to light when looking for discussions about the Russia-Ukraine conflict by South African X users. A network of related accounts stood out clearly due to their abnormally high posting volumes, with most of their posts actually being reposts (formerly “retweets”) of a very specific group of pro-Russia accounts.

The accounts identified were flagged as inauthentic due to their unusually high posting volumes, in conjunction with highly skewed interaction patterns that focused on just a few accounts and that represent atypical online behaviour. 

The top 20 suspected buzzers generated almost a million posts between January and October 2024 on South African X. Most of the posts were reposts of a specific set of pro-Russia accounts. (Graphic: Supplied)



When looking at posts authored by just the top 20 suspected buzzer accounts (there are more), it was discovered that they had collectively posted more than 857,000 times between mid-January and mid-October 2024. Most of these posts amplified content containing Russian narratives on global conflicts involving Ukraine, Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran, while also weighing in on South African socio-political discussions.

The accounts state that they are based in South Africa. They have relatively few followers but have posted an enormous number of times. The top 10 suspected accounts have each posted between 45,000 and 300,000 times over their account lifetime, for example. In addition to this, many of their profiles include Russian and/or Palestinian iconography and express a hatred for the West.

It is unclear whether these accounts are real people or not, however it is likely that they are real people who form part of the covert paid influencer industry. A previous three-part investigation has shown how political influence has been commodified in South Africa, where social media influencers are covertly paid for posts supporting a particular campaign or interest. See parts one, two and three of that investigation.

Promoting the Russian perspective


Most of these accounts’ activity consists of reposting (or ‘buzzing’) content produced by a network of accounts including Russian government-linked news agencies, Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik. 

Another key member of the network that is amplified by the suspected buzzers is controversial American political commentator, Jackson Hinkle, who was visiting South Africa at the time of writing to promote African nuclear bomb programmes. Hinkle’s local charm offensive underscores just how important a narrative battleground South Africa is to this network, and how nuclear energy is a recurring theme.



Content posted by the suspected buzzers primarily focused on the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, often disguised as “breaking news” to capture user attention, subsequently steering discussions towards Russian perspectives.

This network of X accounts consistently repost and mention each other within any discussion of Russia or Ukraine (and probably the Middle East conflict as well) on X. These accounts are all amplified by the same group of suspected buzzers, promoting a pro-Russia worldview. (Graphic: Supplied)



The accounts inject these narratives into local networks by interacting and reposting Russian perspective content. Thus, they act like conduits for exposing local users to this content which might otherwise largely remain unseen.

They boost the prominence of this content particularly among the EFF and MK party communities on X, both known for their contrarian and adversarial stances towards the incumbent ruling parties and the West, making them perfect homes for these narratives.

Suspected pro-Russia buzzers, which were probably already part of the EFF community given that so many paid influencers have naturally emerged from that community (see the paid influence investigations referenced above), inject content into these communities’ conversations that contain broader geopolitical themes like anti-West sentiment and pro-Russia stances on issues involving Nato and BRICS. 

In addition, they also inject content into communities discussing other divisive topics such as crime and anti-foreigner sentiment. 

It is important to note that the research does not not draw any conclusions as to whether or not these political parties are aware of this strategy, although the MK party does have a history of Russia-aligned campaigns including Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla’s likely involvement in Russia’s 2022 #IStandWithPutin campaign at the start of the Ukraine invasion.

Word cloud of the top terms within the posts amplified, or ‘buzzed’, by the pro-Russia buzzer accounts. Most content focused on the Russia-Ukraine war and the a pro-Palestinian stance on the Middle East conflict. (Graphic: Supplied)



A bouquet of inter-related issues

The suspected pro-Russia buzzers amplify Russian-produced and -affiliated content within discussions about the Gaza conflict, the Ukraine invasion, BRICS, and geopolitical power dynamics in general, to advance that country’s perspective. 

Conversations amplified by the suspected buzzers spanned topics from critiques of the UK’s global role, anti-Zionist narratives, to scepticism about mainstream medicine, with Russia’s perspective on the Ukraine invasion and a pro-Palestine stance receiving the main focus.

After Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack of Israel, the suspected buzzer accounts pivoted away from primarily discussing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and coups in African countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso to focus on support for Palestine, embedding themselves within the pro-Palestine activist community to promote narratives that align with Russian interests and co-opting that issue away from legitimate activists.

In a particularly active South African X community focused on pro-Palestinian support, buzzers posted narratives critical of Israel and the West, weaving in Russia-friendly perspectives. Hashtags such as #Gaza and #FreePalestine were co-opted to draw attention to Iran-Russia relations, often accompanied by criticism of Western support for Israel’s military actions. Real criticisms of war crimes, human rights violations, and corporate boycotts were conveniently piggybacked on to create an environment where South Africa’s historical solidarity with Palestine was used to bolster pro-Russia sentiments.

Bringing it down to local issues


Beyond global conflicts, the suspected buzzers also targeted local issues such as crime, xenophobia, and critiques of South African governance. Hashtags like #CrimeWatch gained traction, allowing suspected buzzers to insert narratives linking local issues to broader geopolitical tensions between Nato and Russia or Iran and Israel. 

Anti-foreigner sentiments and race-baiting posts aligned with anti-Nato rhetoric, creating overlap with Russian narratives on Western diplomacy and military power. 

These accounts targeted anti-establishment communities to amplify scepticism towards Western policies, promote dissent against Western leaders, and paint figures like Alexei Navalny, who died in Russian state captivity after multiple state assassination attempts, as Western puppets.

An interaction network highlighting the X users and communities that the suspected buzzer accounts amplified the most by reposting their content. They mixed together both international and South African-specific content. South African communities mostly included the EFF and MK supporters and accounts discussing divisive issues such as crime and xenophobia. (Graphic: Supplied)



Another X community that was focused on BRICS nations frequently discussed shifting global alliances and power structures, mentioning Turkey and Russia often and positioning them as counterpoints to Western policies.

What this research highlights is a group of hyperactive, seemingly South African-based X accounts that repost the same pro-Russia accounts over and over, amplifying Russia’s global narratives around Ukraine, the Middle East, conspiracy theories that undermine trust in institutions and democracy, paint the West as aggressive hypocrites, and more. 

These accounts mix in content from South African politics — especially relating to heavily contested issues such as crime, corruption and anti-foreigner sentiment. They also primarily inject their content into communities partial to anti-establishment political parties such as the EFF and the MK party, as well as conservative and right wing communities that feel South Africa is headed in the wrong direction.

The analysis of these pro-Russia accounts reveals how information operations in South Africa subtly harness public interest in key political flashpoints to influence local social media discourse in the battle for narrative control. Rather than focusing on one political party or ideology, suspected local pro-Russia buzzers cast a wide net, engaging a diverse array of social media communities around polarising topics to maximise engagement and spread Russian perspectives. In this way, local online communities become Trojan horses for Russian talking points, obscuring geopolitical motivations behind discussions of current affairs. 

A harmful side-effect of this strategy is the undermining of trust in the media, in institutions and in the ideal of democracy itself. The net result is a polarised, fragmented society that opens the doors to authoritarian populist leaders who promise to fix our social problems just as long as we are willing to give up some of our personal freedoms and human rights along the way.

Herman Wasserman is Professor of Journalism at Stellenbosch University and Director of the Centre for Information Integrity in Africa. Social media analysis provided by Murmur Intelligence.

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