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How to help SA tune out the noise and focus on informed decision-making

Xolelwa Kashe-Katiya
By Xolelwa Kashe-Katiya
22 Apr 2025
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The Indlulamithi 2035 Scenarios present an important reminder that South Africa’s future is not fixed. The aptly named ‘Journeys into our Future’ outlines the varied trajectories for the country.

As we celebrate 31 years of freedom in South Africa, it is important for us to reflect on recent events in the global and political spheres that have left many wondering about the fate of the South African state.

Such events, opinions and disagreements have deepened the divides and have the potential to incite chaos in our society. With all the noise that is prevalent in our democracy, it can be difficult to remember how to listen to one another and work together towards the greater good of society.

Moreover, the distraction brought on by tumultuous current affairs can distract us from realising that the decisions we make today shape our future.

The Indlulamithi 2035 Scenarios present an important reminder that South Africa’s future is not fixed. The aptly named “Journeys into our Future” outline the varied trajectories for the country.

The three scenarios — Weaver Work: The Cooperation Nation; Hadeda Home: The Recrimination Nation; and Vulture Culture: The Desperation Nation — present vastly different visions of South Africa’s future. The 2035 scenarios were developed after noticing that previous scenarios on social cohesion had begun to unfold.

By 2023, the Indlulamithi barometer indicated that South Africa was in a state of lawlessness – a nation torn between immobility and restless energy, the worst-case scenario that embodies a demoralised land, or disorder and decay.

The 2035 scenarios are derived from three Key Driving Forces (KDFs) that will shape the direction of the future of South Africa. These driving forces are thus crucial in determining which of the three Indlulamithi 2035 Scenarios may unfold. Each scenario reflects different outcomes, based on how these KDFs interact with one another.

One of the driving forces from which the 2035 scenarios were derived is that of state weakness and declining democratic accountability (KDF2) – this relates to the extent to which the capacity of the state and its efficacy and accountability can be rebuilt.

The failure to maintain state legitimacy, coupled with a lack of accountability, undermines trust in institutions, fuelling corruption and inefficiency in a state.

Crossroads


Current events suggest that South Africa is at a crossroads where the state is concerned. The Government of National Unity (GNU) – much like the one formed in 1994 – is fraught with ideological disagreements and backroom deals. The fragility of the GNU and the hostile international environment all point to a state that is struggling to maintain coherence and legitimacy.

If the state continues to falter in its response to the other two KDFs, we risk falling into the Hadeda Home or Vulture Culture scenarios, where political fragmentation and social unrest drive the nation toward further decline.

Despite this, there is a chance to steer the country toward the Weaver Work scenario, where collaboration and effective governance pave the way for long-term progress.

First, cooperation with business and labour will effectively mitigate against the Low Economic Growth Trap (KDF1) – this refers to the extent to which South Africa can disentangle itself from its long-term low economic growth trap.

Second, collaboration with civil society is required in responding to internal security that is threatened by anger, distrust and resistance to renewal (KDF3) – this is the extent to which South Africans can find one another. The key driving forces thus provide valuable insight into the kinds of decisions South Africa must make today to secure its desired future.

Decisive actions


For instance, addressing state weakness and declining accountability requires decisive actions to restore integrity within government institutions and improve public trust. This can be achieved through enhanced transparency, collaborative anti-corruption measures and investment for better service delivery.

In essence, these key driving forces may provide a more meaningful framework for policy-making, and they also highlight the urgent need for coordinated, forward-thinking actions that will align South Africa’s trajectory with its aspirations for a stable, prosperous, and inclusive future.

The state of the South African state ought to be understood in conjunction with the broader socioeconomic challenges the country faces. Through the Indlulamithi 2035 Scenarios, we also gain insight into the various forms of coalition governments that lie ahead.

The state’s ability to navigate its challenges, rebuild trust and deliver on its promises will determine whether South Africa moves toward a more cooperative, prosperous and socially cohesive future, or one marked by fragmentation and collapse.

Ultimately, the future of the South African state lies in our hands, and this is a key indication of the benefits of our freedoms, as symbolised by Freedom Day, in commemoration of the first democratic elections on 27 April 1994.

Through collaborative decision-making and action with all social partners, we can strengthen governance of our democratic institutions, even with the advent of coalition governments.

Co-creation with social movements, thus ensuring that the state remains accountable to its people, can shape the Weaver Work scenario that reflects the aspirations of all South Africans.

The forms of partnerships and the priorities we choose will determine the trajectory of our nation. It is up to us to ensure it is one of unity, stability and progress for the next 10 years. DM

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