Hurricane Milton barrels towards Florida as Category 5 storm, bringing threat of widespread devastation

Rown Williamson secures a gas pump at a Costco store before the arrival of Hurricane Milton on October 08, 2024 in Naples, Florida. People are preparing for the store, which could be a Cat 3, when it makes landfall on Wednesday evening. (Photo: Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

By Bloomberg

9 Oct 2024

'If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die.' This is the warning issued amid Hurricane Milton churning toward western Florida, bringing with it a potentially lethal Category 5 storm, with winds strong enough to tear homes apart and storm surge capable of swamping some coastal cities.

Milton is on track to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday local time, according to the US National Hurricane Center, as Florida officials have urged millions of residents to evacuate as soon as possible to avoid the effects of what could be one of the worst hurricanes on record.

Winds from the storm roared at 260km/h as it barrelled across the Gulf of Mexico, the centre said in advisory at 5am New York time (11am in South Africa). The centre of the storm was about 480km southwest of Tampa.

“Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida,” the centre said. Storm surge in the area around Tampa Bay could reach as high as 4.6m, which would lead to widespread flooding.

Milton will strike Florida less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene damaged homes across a broad swathe of the state’s west coast. Weary residents have begun to flee the coastline, including Tampa. Florida was set to start free evacuation shuttles in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties on Tuesday, and social media showed scenes of bumper-to-bumper traffic on highways. Officials warned against trying to ride out the storm.

“This is literally catastrophic,” Tampa mayor Jane Castor told CNN. “I can say this without any dramatisation whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFpEiG4Ve9I

While Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane compared with Helene, the storm is quickly growing. Tropical storm-force winds now extend 225km from Milton’s centre, up from 168km earlier in the day.

“Milton’s wind field is expected to grow considerably in size by the time the centre moves over Florida,” Richard Pasch, a meteorologist at the hurricane centre, said in his outlook. “Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”

Milton Ahead of expected landfall of Hurricane Milton, a heavy stream of evacuation traffic slowly moves southward from northwest Florida on Interstate 75 in Naples on 8 October 2024. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Cristobal Herrera-Ulashkevich)

Many chose to escape by air. All United Airlines flights out of Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers and Sarasota were fully booked through Thursday, the carrier said. The airline has booked 25,000 customers from those airports, and is using larger planes for some flights.

About 90% of flights originating at Tampa International Airport were cancelled on Wednesday, as have 92% of flights scheduled into the airport, according to FlightAware.com. Nearly all flights at Southwest Florida International in Fort Myers have been cancelled, as have most flights in and out of Orlando International Airport.

Governor Ron DeSantis said roadway tolls have been suspended and shoulders will be used as travel lanes to help people leave.

“Looking at how big this storm is, there’s going to be significant damage in different parts of Florida,” DeSantis said at a news conference. In addition to the damage caused by wind and flooding, widespread power outages are likely, said DeSantis, who has declared an emergency in 51 counties.

Read more: Thousands flee Hurricane Milton, causing traffic jams and fuel shortages

The National Hurricane Center is calling for as much as a 15-foot (4.5m) storm surge into Tampa Bay, which would lead to widespread flooding in the city and surrounding area. The topography is flat and there are many smaller inlets, so the water will be able to spread far and wide, said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist with AccuWeather. Port Tampa Bay has closed to all shipping.

The storm’s economic toll could be severe. Wind and water could damage Florida’s citrus crops, and many businesses – including the state’s iconic theme parks – announced they would close until the hurricane had passed.

Milton likely will cause $60-billion to $75-billion in damage and losses, with some models showing the total could rise as high as $150-billion, Chuck Watson, a disaster modeller at Enki Research, said in an X post.

Bonita Beach, Florida residents collect sand bags as the city prepares for Hurricane Milton on 8 October 2024. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Cristobal Herrera-Ulashkevich)

Milton A flooded street after the passage of Hurricane Milton in Celestun, Mexico, on 8 October 2024. The hurricane, which has intensified into a Category 5 storm, moved away from the coasts of the southern state of Quintana Roo, with no casualties or injuries reported in the main tourist destinations of the Mexican Caribbean. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Lorenzo Hernández)

If Milton makes landfall as a Category 3, the storm surge could threaten as many as 500,000 residential properties in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota areas, with a reconstruction cost of $123-billion, according to estimates from property data firm CoreLogic. If it arrives as a Category 4,700,000 homes with a cost of $174-billion could be threatened.

Those estimates reflect high home values in the Tampa region, as well as its sizeable population.

“This can become one of the country’s most damaging and costly hurricanes, due to devastating impacts of the storm occurring in densely populated parts of Florida and also areas with particularly expensive property,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at commercial forecaster AccuWeather. “We are concerned this could be another very significant impact and economic loss.”

Milton will arrive soon after Hurricane Helene devastated the US South and killed at least 230 people, sparking a wave of disinformation and conspiracy theories. Officials will push to uncover the source of these rumours that have hampered relief efforts, US Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator Deanne Criswell said.

Disinformation in previous disasters came from US foreign adversaries, Criswell said, and though she doesn’t know if that has been the case for Helene yet, the cause is “certainly something that will be looked into”.

A damaged vehicle stuck in sand swept up by Hurricane Helene ahead of Hurricane Milton's expected landfall in Treasure Island, Florida, on 7 October 2024. (Photo: Tristan Wheelock / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Empty shelves in the drinks aisle of a store as people prepare before Hurricane Milton's arrival in Fort Myers, Florida, on 8 October 2024. (Photo: Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

Rown Williamson secures a gas pump at a Costco store before the arrival of Hurricane Milton in Naples, Florida, on 8 October 2024. (Photo: Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

Even though Milton’s top winds have dropped since Monday, the fluctuations won’t affect the storm surge it creates, and history has shown many catastrophic hurricanes notched slower peak wind speeds before making landfall – most notably Katrina in 2005. In addition, the hurricane centre said Milton may double its physical size by the time it reaches Florida, exacerbating the risk of serious storm surge.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-Central Florida,” Pasch said.

As Milton draws closer, the highest wind gusts are expected to extend well inland to near Orlando and encompass roughly the northern half of the citrus belt, according to the Commodity Weather Group.

In addition to Milton, the hurricane centre is now watching an area of low pressure off Florida’s east coast that has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days. Bloomberg/DM

With assistance from Danny Lee, Ben Sharples, Michael Smith, Ilena Peng, Allyson Versprille, Mary Schlangenstein, Ari Natter and Mark Chediak.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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