If a general election were held tomorrow and turnout was good, the ANC would clear 50% - Inclusive Society Institute

1 Sep 2022

The EFF is tipped to be kingmaker in the 2024 elections. But if elections were held now, South Africa could see the ANC get a simple majority, albeit a very narrow one, says Inclusive Society Institute.

The Inclusive Society Institute is an independent think-tank sympathetic to the ANC. Executive director Daryl Swanepoel has analysed the latest Ipsos poll numbers and says: “The institute does not share the doomsday scenario. The ANC should hold on to power if an election were to be held tomorrow. If it slips below, they will remain in government as the lead coalition partner.”

The Ipsos poll, reported here, found that the ANC could lose power by 2024 and either end up on the opposition benches or enter a governing coalition.

But Swanepoel has taken a fine-tooth comb to the numbers. He finds the governing party may be on the skids, but is not yet at the bottom of the slide. He says if you adjust for people who said they would not vote, or were not registered to vote, the party gets in with 49% – assuming its supporters pitch up at voting stations on the day.

Suppose you make a second adjustment and proportionally distribute the number of undecided respondents to the Ipsos poll? In that case, the potential ANC total nudges over the majority line to 50.76%, says Swanepoel.

But before the governing party breaks out the streamers, he has a cautionary note: “At the national level, voter turnout over the last three elections declined from 77.3% in 2009, to 73.48% in 2014 and to 66.05% in 2019. Therefore, under current circumstances, a high voter turnout scenario should be discarded.”

If voters stay home and watch TV, or have a braai on election day, and there’s a moderate turnout of 60% of eligible voters, the ANC will get between 48% and 50% of the national vote.

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But as Tim Cohen writes here, polls need to be read with an abundance of caution. Swanepoel agrees.

“Two years [to the 2024 national election] is still a long way down the track and much can change. This scenario is suggested to be the sentiment of the respondents should they vote tomorrow.”

Swanepoel is a seasoned politician and well placed to analyse the meaning of the polls.

“It is quite conceivable that a coalition government may have to be formed at the national level and, most likely, in a number of provinces, such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. However, considering its support bulk, the prospect of ousting the ANC from national government is highly unlikely,” he said in a note prepared for Daily Maverick.

However, after the 2021 local government elections, the ANC was ousted from several cities and districts, even when it had the highest number of seats, but not a clear majority. In Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, DA mayors were sworn in only because the EFF chose to abstain from voting for any candidate.

With a possible EFF and ANC pact taking shape, that could change, as Wednesday’s successful vote of no confidence in the DA’s Joburg Council Speaker Vasco da Gama has shown.

“In our view, NO (sic) opposition party will be able to form a coalition government without the inclusion or support of the EFF, whose support is currently in the region of 12% to 13%,” says Swanepoel. DM

For details on sample sizes, polling dates and type, see graphics in the text.

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