In a string of by-elections in KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday, the IFP topped off a good political week by winning wards off the ANC in Mthonjaneni and the Abantu Batho Congress in Greytown, uMvoti. The DA took a ward off the ANC in Newcastle. The IFP retained two seats in the Zululand district while the ANC won with ease in its KwaZulu-Natal stronghold of uMzimkhulu.
Zululand
The Zululand district is in the north of the province and includes the IFP stronghold of Ulundi. Other towns include Vryheid and Paulpietersburg.
Ward 11 (Bugwini Ngolotoshe) Nongoma, Zululand: IFP 45% (58%) MK 22% ANC 18% (24%) NFP 13% (13%) EFF 2% (4%)
The setting: The ward is south of Nongoma and sits between Melmoth on the R66 road and the Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park on the R618 regional road. It is a rural ward above the Black-Mfolozi River. It is near the southern border of the municipality and the eastern border of the Big 5-Hlabisa Municipality.
The municipality includes numerous palaces belonging to the Zulu monarch.
The 2021 local government election: The IFP swept all six districts and won the ward comfortably. The IFP emerged as the largest party in the municipality but did not win an outright majority. The IFP governed here with the support of the EFF after the 2021 elections. The party suffered two setbacks: It lost a ward to the National Freedom Party (NFP) in a by-election and also lost control of the municipality when the EFF turned its back on them. The NFP has the mayoral chain in this municipality.
The 2024 provincial election: The IFP was the most popular party in the ward, winning 47% of the vote. This was slightly higher than its 2019 percentage. MK stormed into second place with 27%, taking votes from the ANC and NFP, pushing into third and fourth place. The ANC’s support halved in the ward, from 26% to 13%. The NFP fell from 15% to 7%. MK also hurt the DA whose 6% from 2019 was all but wiped out. MK also hurt the EFF here.
The by-election: Ndukenhle Duma was killed by gunmen. Two pupils were also killed in the process and two other pupils are in a critical condition. No one has been arrested for the murders. MK, ANC, NFP, EFF and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) are all on the ballot. African Economic Freedom (AEF), an EFF breakaway in northern KZN, completes the ballot.
The IFP won the ward by just more than 500 votes but was down in all voting districts compared with 2021. It won five of the six voting districts, losing one to the National Freedom Party (NFP) at Endlozana Primary School.
uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) finished second in the ward, taking votes away from the IFP, ANC and EFF. Its best result was 38% at Mghabanyongo Primary School where it really hurt the ANC, which declined from 35% to 5%.
Compared with the recent provincial elections, the IFP all but mirrored its showing, while the ANC recovered some support it lost to MK.
Poll: 47% (52%)
Ward 15 (Mbekakanye Rhebokfontein) uPhongolo, Zululand: IFP 53% (58%) ANC 29% (35%) MK 16% EFF 1% (3%) NFP 1% (1%)
The setting: The ward is east of the town of Pongola, just off the N2 national road which links Mkhondo with Pongola. It is close to the Eswatini border. The municipality also borders Mpumalanga. It includes the Pongola Dam and is known for its sugar cane and citrus farming.
The 2021 local government elections: The IFP beat the ANC here by 23%, winning four of the five voting districts. The ANC won the second-most populous district in the ward, Ugu Primary School in the village of Mbekakanye.
The IFP won 15 of the 29 seats in the council and the ANC 10. The NFP was third with two. The DA and EFF won one each.
The 2024 provincial elections: MK was the most popular party in the municipality with 42% of the vote. The IFP grew from 29% to 32% compared with the 2019 elections. The ANC fell from 47% to 17% to finish third.
The IFP won 44% in Ward 15, with MK second on 27% and the ANC third on 24%. The IFP and MK grew at the expense of the ANC and NFP in this ward compared with the 2019 results.
The by-election: Ward councillor Phumzile Masuku resigned suddenly from council, citing fear and danger. MK and the ANC were hoping to upend the IFP in this ward, with the NFP and EFF also on the ballot.
The IFP swept all five voting districts to retain this uPhongolo ward, beating the ANC by 431 votes. The IFP flipped the Ugu Primary School voting district, which had been carried by the ANC in 2021. The IFP won 41%, slightly down from 43% in 2021. The ANC fell from 50% to 33%, while MK did its best work here, getting one-quarter of the vote in the district.
MK finished a distant third in the ward, but was able to take votes from the IFP, ANC and EFF.
Comparing the results in the by-election with the provincial election ballot, the MK fell well short of the 27% it received just a few weeks ago. The IFP and ANC recovered chunks of support lost to MK a few weeks ago.
Poll: 52% (58%)
Amajuba District
Ward 5 (Barry Hertzog Park Ncandu Park), Newcastle in Amajuba: DA 31% (20% PR) IFP 27% (22% PR) ANC 22% (25% PR) EFF 20% (11%)
The setting: The ward is northwest of the Newcastle town centre. Barry Hertzog Park is next to the town’s golf course, while Ncandu Park is on the outskirts of town next to the N11 national road which links the town with the ArcelorMittal steel works.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won the ward with 21% of the vote, followed by the DA with 19% and the IFP with 17%. Two independent candidates won a combined 12%. Due to neither of them contesting the by-election, the proportional representation (PR) vote percentage is a better mode of comparison.
The IFP won the Ncandu Park voting district on the PR ballot, while the DA won the Barry Hertzog Park district. The ANC carried the PR ballot vote in the ward with its solid second-place finish in both districts. ActionSA and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) both ate into the DA’s margin in Barry Hertzog Park. This, arguably, cost the party a win on both ballots.
The 2024 provincial election: An MK wrecking ball came through Ward 5 as the party won more than 50% of the vote. The DA finished a distant second with 19% and the IFP came third with 17%. In 2019, the ANC won 52%, falling to 8% on 29 May. The EFF declined from 13% to 4%.
MK was the most popular party in Newcastle, winning 53%. It came within 0.10% of matching the ANC’s 2019 total. The IFP grew from 15% to 20% to finish second in Newcastle. The ANC declined by 41% points, from 53% to 12%. The DA dipped from 10% to 8%, while the EFF shrunk from 16% to 4%.
The by-election: Ward councillor Nontethelelo Khumalo resigned from the council and joined MK. MK is, however, not on the ballot. This meant the by-election took place in a pre-MK formation time warp.
The by-election is also taking place at a time of bitter infighting in the party which gave the IFP the votes to claim the mayoral chain. Team Sugar, a Newcastle-based party led by Musa Thwala, wants nothing more to do with the IFP, while others in the party would prefer the party stays the course with the IFP. They include senior member Andile Nkosi, Thwala’s brother-in-law. Nkosi worked with the IFP to vote out Thwala as deputy mayor. Thwala and Nkosi are now trying to expel each other from the party,
This saga is important when you consider the numbers. The IFP has 22 seats, the ANC 18, the EFF eight and Team Sugar seven. The DA has five and ActionSA three. The FF+, NFP, Patriotic Alliance (PA) and ATM all have one seat each in the 67-seat council.
We are yet to see how the government of national unity (GNU) affects the dynamics of the Newcastle coalition. However, at present, the IFP, Team Sugar, DA, ActionSA and FF+ have 38 of the 67 seats. Team Sugar could bring down the coalition.
The IFP would want to win this seat off the ANC to put more distance between them. The DA would have also fancied its chances by getting its supporters out in Barry Hertzog Park.
The DA won this close four-candidate race by 44 votes, edging the IFP which finished second again. The ANC ended 96 votes behind the DA.
The DA carried both Barry Hertzog Park voting districts, building a buffer of 143 votes. Hope High School in Ncandu Park was again very close between the IFP and the ANC. In 2021 the ANC had two more votes than the IFP on the ward ballot and the IFP had one more than the ANC on the PR ballot in that district. The parties tied in the by-election, on 169 votes each.
KwaZulu-Natal has not been a happy hunting ground for the EFF. The party will be satisfied with its robust showing, which included getting 25% of the vote in one of the Barry Hertzog Park voting districts.
The new ward councillor for the DA is Muzi Ndlovu. He will know that the most popular party on the provincial ballot in the ward was MK and it was absent from this ballot. He will have two years to build a profile in the ward, while MK prepares for the 2026 local government elections.
New seat allocation: IFP 22 ANC 17 (18) EFF 8 Team Sugar 7 DA 6 (5) ActionSA 3 FF+ 1 NFP 1 PA 1 ATM 1. Total: 67. The beleaguered Team Sugar is still kingmaker for the moment but national developments could change that.
Poll: 19% (31%)
King Cetshwayo District
Ward 10 (Nomponjwana Mabhensa) Mthonjaneni, King Cetshwayo: IFP (58% 31% PR) ANC 26% (54% PR) MK 10% NFP 5% (6% PR) EFF 1% (4% PR)
The setting: The ward is east of the principal town of Mthonjaneni-Melmoth. It comprises numerous villages. It is off the R66 regional road which links Eshowe with Melmoth.
King Cetshwayo includes the large town of Richards Bay, as well as Nkandla and KwaMbonambi.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the IFP by 23% points on the PR ballot in 2021. The PR ballot is used as the mode of comparison here as an independent ran on the ward ballot who is not contesting the by-election.
The ANC won six of the eight voting districts, with the IFP and EFF sharing the other two.
The 2024 provincial election: The IFP won 54% of the vote in Ward 10. MK came second with 24% and the ANC third with 19%. In 2019, the ANC won 50% of the vote, and the IFP 40%. The EFF was able to get 5% in 2019.
This suggests that the ANC and EFF lost support to MK and the IFP in this ward.
The IFP was the most popular party in the entire Mthonjaneni municipality as well, winning 53%, down 1% from 2019. MK was second with 31%, while the ANC plummeted from 36% to 12%.
The by-election: ANC ward councillor Kwazikwenkosi Mkhize resigned from council following ill health. The IFP has won two wards off the ANC in Mthonjaneni since 2021, which gives it 14 of the 25 council seats. The ANC has been reduced to eight from the 10 with which it entered the council after the 2021 elections.
MK was on the ballot in this by-election. MK and the IFP would have fancied their chances to beat the ANC in this by-election.
The IFP picked up its third consecutive ward off the ANC in Mthonjaneni with a one-sided win. It beat the ANC by 639 votes and did not allow MK to gain momentum from the national elections.
The IFP won six of the eight voting districts after taking only one in 2021. At Qondinlela Secondary School the party went from 36% to 65%, while the ANC declined from 62% to 27%. The IFP ballooned from 51% to 90% at the Enhlube School district, with the ANC falling from 25% to 3%.
MK was far off the 24% pace from a few weeks ago, falling to 10%. The IFP and the ANC were the recipients of the MK’s decline.
New Mthonjaneni seat allocation: IFP 15 (14) ANC 7 (8) Academic Congress Union 1 EFF 1 NFP 1. Total: 25.
Poll: 50% (52%)
uMzinyathi District
Ward 10 (Greytown Seven Oaks) uMvoti in uMzinyathi: IFP 50% (20%) ANC 40% (28%) ABC 10% (30%) EFF <1% (4%)
The setting: The ward has five voting districts, with just under half of the voters casting their ballots at one voting station in Greytown. The other four voting districts south of Greytown are mainly around the Seven Oaks area.
uMvoti is centred on Greytown and includes small towns such as Kranskop and Hermannsburg.
uMzinyathi includes the towns of Dundee, Tugela Ferry and Nqutu.
The 2021 local government elections: The Abantu Batho Congress (ABC) pipped the ANC in this ward by 2%. The ANC won three of the five voting districts by narrow margins. The ANC and the IFP shared the two remaining districts. The DA finished second in two districts.
The 2024 provincial election: MK was the most popular party in the ward, winning 37% of the vote. The DA was the second-most popular with 21%, up from 17% in 2019. The ANC was third with 18%, well down from 52% in 2019. The IFP came fourth with 16%, down from 20% in 2019. ABC only won 4%.
MK was the most popular party in uMvoti, receiving an impressive 45% of the vote. The IFP came second again, with 29%, a drop from 37% in 2019. The ANC lost two-thirds of its support in uMvoti, falling from 51% to 17%. The DA was fourth with 4%, the same percentage as 2019, while the ABC finished just behind the DA on 4%.
The by-election: ABC Ward councillor Theresa Edwards resigned because of poor health. She subsequently died. In an odd development, the two most popular parties in the ward from the recent elections were absent from the by-election ballot. Neither MK or the DA are contesting. ABC would have been desperate to hold this ward, especially after its poor performance in the 2024 elections, where it was blown out of the water by MK. The ANC would have seen this by-election as a chance of rare KZN electoral success, since it was the most popular party in the ward on the ballot going into this election.
uMvoti gave a clue about recent developments around the GNU. The IFP and ANC worked together a few weeks ago to oust the mayor, ABC leader PG Mavundla. The by-election was held a few days after the news that Mavundla’s son had died. He was found dead after being declared missing.
The IFP went into the by-election with 10 of the 27 seats. The ANC had nine, ABC seven and the DA one.
IFP won this ward off the ABC by getting 69 more votes than the ANC and 313 more than the ABC. The ABC had a poor provincial election and had another worrying result in this by-election.
The IFP won three of the five voting districts. The two voting districts that were key to the win were the Upper uMvoti Primary School in the Seven Oaks area – where it grew from 44% to 69%, while the ANC shrunk from 26% to 19% – and Khulekani School, south of Greytown where the IFP surged from 10% to 63% as the ANC slid from 43% to 31%.
The ANC carried the most-vote-rich part of the ward, the Greytown Junior School in the town of Greytown, with 52%, well up from the 27% it obtained in 2021. The ABC slid from 31% to 18% in the district, while the IFP climbed from 11% to 28%. The problem for the ANC was that only 10% of registered voters showed up in this district. This is one of the districts where the DA has a good pocket of support. Its supporters clearly stayed away. The ANC will be encouraged by its growth at Quarme Farm School on Mooi River Road, south of Greytown. This is where the most votes were cast in the by-election and where turnout was the highest at 59%. The ANC grew from 25% to 64% while the IFP lost ground, moving from 32% to 28%. The ABC was the big loser at Quarme, falling from 36% to 6%.
New ward councillor Sihle Bhengu and his party, the IFP, will know that the absence of the IFP and DA could have helped them here. They will want to consolidate their hold on the ward.
The new uMvoti seat allocation: IFP 11 (10) ANC 9 ABC 6 (7) DA 1. Total: 27. Recent national developments could well see an IFP and ANC deal here, with an IFP mayor.
Poll: 26% (39%)
Harry Gwala District
Ward 1 (Indawana), uMzimkhulu in Harry Gwala: ANC 60% (70% PR) MK 23% IFP 16% (6% PR) EFF 1% (18% PR)
The setting: Ward 1 is a rural ward west of the town of uMzimkhulu. Most of it is south of the Coleford Nature Reserve. The ward is near the R617 road which links Underberg with Franklin.
uMzimkhulu is a traditional ANC stronghold which forms part of the Harry Gwala District. Other towns in the district are Kokstad, Ixopo and Underberg. The district borders the Eastern Cape and Lesotho.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC was given a run for its money on the ward ballot by a popular independent candidate who is not on the ballot. The PR ballot from 2021 is seen as a better point of comparison. The ANC won by a landslide on the PR ballot, with 70%. The EFF came second.
The ANC won four of the six ward ballots, but swept all six districts on the PR ballot.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC held steady in Ward 1, winning 57% of the vote, down from 86% in 2019. MK was second with 22% but did not hurt the ANC as significantly compared with other parts of the municipality and the province. The IFP had good growth in the ward, jumping from 2% to 15%. The EFF fell from 8% to 3%.
The ANC came first in the municipality with 58%. It was one of two municipalities where the party finished first in the province. The other is neighbouring Greater Kokstad. It did, however, fall sharply from the 84% it won in 2019. MK finished runner-up with 31%. The IFP won 4%, up from 1% in 2019, while the EFF was fourth with 4% (9% in 2019).
The by-election: ANC ward councillor Nkosinathi Madlala died following an illness in December. MK elected to contest and would have been the ANC’s main concern going into this by-election.
The ANC was solid in its KZN stronghold. It was also slightly up on its 2024 provincial vote haul in the ward. The party swept all seven voting districts and received less than 50% in one of the districts. MK grew slightly here to finish second. It won 44% of the vote at Indawana Primary School and took votes from all of the more established parties. The ANC fell from 57% to 48%, the EFF collapsed from 19% to 1% and the IFP went from 13% to 6%.
The ANC won more than 70% of the vote in two of the districts – Mganu School and Delamzi School. The party’s returns dipped compared with 2021.
Poll: 51% (58%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 3 July when the IFP will defend a ward in Nkandla and the ANC will defend a safe seat in Mogale City, Gauteng. DM
The proportional representation (PR) ballot result from the previous election is used when it is a better indicator of support for a party in the ward.
Read about more by-election results in Daily Maverick:
uMzumbe, KZN: IFP wins big in KZN’s uMzumbe, MK party gets its first ward councillor
Western Cape: DA snatches outright control of Beaufort West, crushes competition in Cape Town wards