Daily Maverick
Dailymaverick logo

Politics

Politics, South Africa, Maverick News

IFP deals bitter setback for Team Sugar, MK in KZN, ANC cleans up in Eastern Cape, North West wards

IFP deals bitter setback for Team Sugar, MK in KZN, ANC cleans up in Eastern Cape, North West wards
Wayne Sussman
By Wayne Sussman
18 Jul 2024
Facebook
2
The IFP upset uMkhonto Wesizwe and local party Team Sugar to pick up its fifth ward in Newcastle in 2024, while the ANC reasserted its dominance in the Eastern Cape and North West with four big victories.

This was the first round of by-elections since the Cabinet announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa. Three of the larger government of national unity (GNU) coalition partners did not participate in this round of by-elections – the DA, Patriotic Alliance (PA) and Freedom Front Plus (FF+).

Ward 28 (Madadeni E) Newcastle, Amajuba: IFP 40% (14%) MK 29% Team Sugar 17% (37%) ANC 13% (32%) Rise Mzansi 1% EFF < 1% (7%) 


The setting: Madadeni E forms part of the sprawling Madadeni township east of the town of Newcastle. Newcastle is famous for its steelworks. It is also the hometown of Fani Madida and Bakkies Botha. 

The 2021 local government elections: Team Sugar, a local party led by former EFF activist Musa Thwala, made a big splash in Newcastle, winning seven seats. This included winning two wards. Thwala stood as the candidate in Ward 28. His party beat the ANC by 111 votes for a famous victory. 

There was an independent candidate who hurt the IFP on the ward ballot and also stymied Team Sugar. Team Sugar beat the ANC by 183 votes on the proportional representation (PR) ballot. The IFP won 19% of the PR vote, up by 5% points compared with their ward percentage. 

The 2024 provincial election: uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) was the most popular party in Ward 28 where it won a staggering 59% of the vote. The IFP finished second with 21%, up from 16% in 2019. The ANC declined by 47% points, from 59% to 12%, while the EFF lost the bulk of its support in Madadeni E, shrinking from 19% to 5%. 

The by-election: This by-election took place for unique reasons. Team Sugar’s Thwala had his party membership terminated by a rival faction within the party. Thwala overturned the termination and stood as the Team Sugar candidate in a seat he won in 2021, and lost because of internal party politics. 

MK wanted a repeat of its strong showing here at the national elections and was hoping to get its second councillor elected after winning a ward in uMzumbe on the South Coast of KwaZulu-Natal in June. 

Newcastle has seen many wards change hands in 2024. The ANC lost four to the IFP and one to the DA before this by-election. 

The IFP shocked the MK party and Team Sugar to pick up its fifth ward in Newcastle in 2024. The party finished first in two of the three voting districts and tied with MK in another. The IFP came close to tripling its percentage support in the ward and more than doubled its percentage support in the ward compared with the 2024 ballot. The Mlameli Primary School voting district was key to the party’s win. It beat MK by 200 votes in this district and received double the percentage support in the district. The IFP’s 48% in this district was significantly higher than its 15% in the district in 2021. MK finished second here with 24% of the voting district returns.  Team Sugar fell from 50% to 19% in this district, while the ANC fell from 25% to 9%. 

The IFP bested MK by a total of 239 votes. The IFP might have finished well behind MK on the KwaZulu-Natal provincial ballot, but it has all the post-election momentum in the province. As in other post-election KZN by-elections, MK was again unable to capitalise on its remarkable showing on 29 May. 

This is a significant setback for Team Sugar and its leader. He will aim to replace one of the proportional representation councillors to get back into the council. Despite support from the EFF, Team Sugar fell from first place to a distant third. The ANC dropped from second to fourth in the ward. Its returns were very similar to the 2024 poll result. The EFF’s poor showing has a caveat: the party stood down and threw its weight behind Team Sugar. 

The new seat allocation is: IFP 23 (22) ANC 17 EFF 8 Team Sugar 6 (7) DA 6 Action SA 3 FF+ 1 NFP 1 PA 1 ATM 1. Total: 67. The beleaguered Team Sugar is still kingmaker for the moment, but national GNU developments could change that. 

Poll: 40% (39%)

North West


Matlosana, Kenneth Kaunda


Matlosana is the most-populous municipality in the Kenneth Kaunda district. It encompasses the area locals know as “KOSH” – the towns of Klerksdorp, Orkney, Stilfontein and Hartbeesfontein. The municipality is known for its gold and uranium mines and is the part of the country Archbishop Desmond Tutu came from. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won an outright majority, bagging 40 of the 77 seats. The DA is the official opposition with 16 seats, while the EFF won nine and the FF+ seven. A provincial party, Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD), and the PA won two each, while the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) won a single seat. 

Ward 1 (Hartbeesfontein Tigane) Matlosana, Kenneth Kaunda: ANC 86% (71%) EFF 11% (10%) ACT 2% ACP 1%


The setting: Hartbeesfontein is a town with links to mining and agriculture. Most voters in this ward are in Tigane, north of Hartbeesfontein. The ward includes Hartbeesfontein and rural areas west of Hartbeesfontein off the R507 regional road linking the town with Ottosdal. 

The 2021 by-election: The ANC won here by a landslide, taking six of the seven voting districts in the ward. The DA won the Hartbeesfontein voting district. The ANC fared better in Tigane than in the rural voting districts. It won more than 80% of the vote in the two populous Tigane voting districts. 

The DA pipped the EFF for second place with 11%, followed by the FF+ with 5%. 

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC edged closer to the 80% mark in this ward with its 78% haul, up slightly from the 76% it won in 2019. The DA replaced the EFF as the second-most popular party in the ward with 9%, up from 6%. The EFF lost a third of its support, slipping from 12% to 8%. Support for the FF+ halved from 4% to 2%.

The by-election: The community’s preference for ward councillor candidate for the ANC was not adhered to in 2021. The ANC engaged with residents in the ward after the elections and the party asked the ward councillor to resign in accordance with their wishes. Pakiso Mqikela agreed to be the ANC’s candidate for the ward as the party worked to right the wrong from 2021. 

The EFF hoped for improved returns in this key North West municipality. Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT) and the provincial All Citizens Party (ACP) were also on the ballot. 

The ANC swept all seven voting districts, obtaining more than 90% of the vote in four. This included more than 90% in one of the Tigane districts. The EFF showed some growth but it was not nearly as pronounced. 

Only 12% of voters turned out in the town of Hartbeesfontein, the DA stronghold in the ward. DA and FF+ voters decided to not give their vote to the four parties on the ballot. 

Poll: 37% (37%)

Ward 25 (Orkney Kanana) Matlosana, Kenneth Kaunda ANC 83% (72%) EFF 14% (17%) ACT 2% AMC 1%


The setting: Kanana is northwest of Orkney. It is on the R30 road which links Orkney with Klerksdorp. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won more than 70% of the vote here for a wide victory in 2021. The EFF came second, well ahead of any other party. The ANC and the EFF were the only parties to register double percentage figures in 2021. 

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC was unable to replicate its improved showing in Tigane. It declined by 17% points, from 82% to 65%. The EFF grew from 12% to 18%, while the DA climbed from 3% to 8%. MK finished fourth with 2%, also curtailing the ANC.

The by-election: The ward councillor was expelled from the ANC after being arrested on rape charges, and has been in jail for the past few months. 

The ANC won between 77% and 90% of the vote in the three districts for a convincing hold, increasing its percentage vote share, while the EFF declined. The two Free State based parties, ACT and African Movement Congress (AMC), had no impact on the voters of Kanana. 

Poll: 33% (38%)

Eastern Cape


Amahlathi, Amathole


The Amahlathi municipality has one of the most beautiful natural settings in South Africa, with the Amathole mountains as a backdrop. This municipality has also been beset by many challenges over the past few years, including numerous cash-crunch crises. Its main towns are Stutterheim, Cathcart and Keiskammahoek. Membathisi Mdladlana, who has served as South African high commissioner to Canada and minister of labour, and try-scoring machine Jongi Nokwe hail from this municipality. 

The district is an ANC fortress. It includes Mbhashe (Dutwya), Mnquma (Butterworth) and Ngqushwa (Peddie). Amathole has more registered voters than the nearby Metro of Buffalo City. 

Ward 7 (Ethembeni) Amahlathi, Amathole: ANC 94% (46%) EFF  6% (2%)


The setting: Ethembeni is a village northeast of Qonce (formerly King William’s Town). It sits just off the R346 road between Qonce and Stutterheim. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC suffered a major shock here when an independent candidate, Xamuxolo Mfulwana, beat the party by 79 votes in the ward. The ANC beat the EFF by 90% on the PR ballot, winning 93% of the vote to the EFF’s 3%. 

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC thrashed the opposition on 29 May, winning 88% of the vote in this ward. It was slightly down from the 92% it garnered in 2019. The EFF was the second-most popular party here with 6%, up from 5% in 2019. The DA finished third with 3%, improving from 1% in 2019. 

The by-election: Mfulwana was expelled as a councillor. The ANC was heavily favoured to gain a ward here as only it and the EFF were on the ballot. The ANC routed the EFF to win well more than 90% of the vote, including more than 95% in two of the three districts. 

The ward gain means the ANC now has 24 of the 30 council seats. The DA has three, the EFF two and the African People’s Convention (APC) one. 

Poll: 46% (57%)

Ward 11 (Tshoxa Rabula) Amahlathi, Amathole in the Eastern Cape ANC 85% (81%) EFF 15% (13%)


The setting: Ward 11 includes Tshoxa which is just below Keiskammahoek. It also includes numerous villages south and southwest of Keiskammahoek, near the Sandile Dam. Much of the ward is next to the R352 which links Keiskammahoek with Dimbaza. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won more than 80% of the vote. The ANC and the EFF were the only two parties to get into double figures. The ANC won more than 80% in five of the seven voting districts. The EFF did trip up the ANC in the Wolf River voting district, winning 56%. This was an outlier, since the ANC was very strong in the other six voting districts. 

Read more: DA snatches outright control of Beaufort West, crushes competition in Cape Town wards

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC won 78% of the vote here in the recent provincial poll. It dipped below the 80% mark after winning 81% in 2019. The EFF was runner-up with 11% in the ward, slightly up from 9% in 2019. The UDM went from 1% to 3% while the DA fell from 4% to 1%. 

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor was expelled from the council. The ANC and the EFF were the only contestants. 

The ANC cleaned up all seven voting districts for a wide victory over the EFF. Both parties grew in the ward. The EFF won more than 20% of the vote in two of the districts while the ANC won more than 90% in two districts. 

Poll: 29% (40%)

The next by-election will be on 7 August when the ANC will defend a seat in Clocolan in the Setsoto municipality in the Free State. DM

Categories:

Tags: