IFP open to possibility of government of national unity, says Velenkosini Hlabisa

‘If circumstances compel, we must go the route of a government of national unity (GNU); the IFP will not object. A GNU will have enough checks and balances against corruption,” IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa told the geopolitical risk advisory firm Eurasia Group in an on-the-record call this week.

“A GNU is different from a one-party rule in that where we do not agree [on something], we will ensure it will not get to pass.” 

Hlabisa said while the first prize was to remove the ANC from power, the motivation for a GNU was to ensure South Africa did not come to a standstill after the 29 May elections. And it wouldn’t be the first time: following SA’s first democratic elections in 1994, the IFP and National Party were part of Nelson Mandela’s government of national unity.

“If people vote for us to remove the government that has failed them, it would not be fair to join them to keep them in power,” he said.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024

If a week is a long time in politics, crunching the permutations in what has been described as South Africa’s most-contested elections yet shows anything could happen. Nimble coalition-making against the clock may be required — the National Assembly must meet within 14 days of the election being declared to swear in MPs and elect the President, according to section 51(1) of the Constitution.

While exact details will only emerge at the hustings, pundits and polls have the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) getting well below 50% of the votes and predict the governing ANC will drop below the majority required to form the next government.

This would mean the MPC would need other coalition partners just to get enough numbers to form a minority government.

If the ANC were to garner 48% as the biggest political party, arrangements with one- and two-seat parties like Al Jama-ah and the African Independent Congress (AIC) could bring it back into the Union Buildings and Parliament.

A bigger ANC drop to, say, 45% or even 43% of the national vote raises the prospect of what the DA calls the doomsday coalition — the ANC and EFF, with supporting roles perhaps from the Patriotic Alliance (PA) or MK party. The ANC would find this coalition permutation a tough call; its cooperation with the EFF in Gauteng metros is rocky at best and pressure is mounting for it to ditch the EFF.

In a scenario where the ANC lands in the mid-40 percentage points, the IFP, which is tracking around 7% nationally, could be the ANC’s coalition answer, particularly if a deal straddles the national government and that of KwaZulu-Natal.

It happened before and worked well for the IFP, which remained in the GNU after National Party leader FW de Klerk pulled out in 1996. It’s the reason Hlabisa, whose IFP is not without factions and pressures, is talking about a government of national unity.

Although in the 1999 elections the IFP lost control of KwaZulu-Natal, it retained the premiership with Lionel Mtshali. In a series of political chess moves, the provincial ANC withdrew its premier candidate after the then IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi declined to become deputy president because this offer from President Thabo Mbeki was conditional on the IFP letting the ANC have the premiership. Buthelezi remained home affairs minister and the ANC’s S’bu Ndebele had to wait until 2004 to become KwaZulu-Natal premier.

Political realities