Daily Maverick
Dailymaverick logo

Politics

Politics, South Africa, Maverick News

IFP wins big in KZN’s uMzumbe, MK party gets its first ward councillor

IFP wins big in KZN’s uMzumbe, MK party gets its first ward councillor
EFF bake drives past during the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) rally at eSbanini Sports Ground on June 17, 2024 in Umzumbe, South Africa. The sub region will hold by-elections on the 19th of June. (Photo: Gallo Images / Darren Stewart)
Wayne Sussman
By Wayne Sussman
18 Jun 2024
Facebook
0
It was the IFP, not uMkhonto Wesizwe, that ended up with most of the ANC’s uMzumbe cake on a night of surprising results on the South Coast of KwaZulu-Natal. The IFP won three wards off the ANC, while the unofficial leader of the six councillors who defected from the ANC to the MK managed to make history for the MK by winning back his ward and, ultimately, representation in the uMzumbe council for the party. The ANC retained two of the six wards it was defending.

The setting: uMzumbe is on the South Coast of KwaZulu-Natal in the Ugu District. It lies between the uMdoni (Scottburgh) and Ray Nkonyeni (Port Shepstone) municipalities. Current ANC KwaZulu-Natal chairperson Sboniso Duma and Police Minister Bheki Cele hail from the municipality.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won an outright majority, securing 21 of the 39 council seats and 15 of the 20 wards. The IFP is the official opposition, having won 14 seats and five wards. The EFF has two seats and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) and the African People’s Movement (APEMO) one each. The ANC won all six wards contested in this round of by-elections.

The 2024 provincial elections: uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) was the most popular party in the municipality, winning 40% of the vote. The ANC won 28% and the IFP 27%, with the EFF well behind in fourth place with 2%. In 2019, the ANC won 70% of the vote with the IFP second on 16% and the EFF third on 7%.

MK KZN MK party members dance and sing during a rally at the eSbanini Sports Ground in uMzumbe on 17 June 2024. The subregion will hold by-elections on 19 June. (Photo: Gallo Images / Darren Stewart)



These results suggest the ANC lost the bulk of its support to MK and some to the IFP. This trend affected the EFF in the municipality too. 

Wards 1, 2, 3 are in the southern interior of the municipality. Parts of them border the uMuziwabantu (Harding) and Ray Nkonyeni municipalities. They are rural and comprise many villages. MK was the leading party in all three wards, with the ANC second. In Ward 1, MK beat the ANC by a mere three percentage points. It beat the ANC by 18 percentage points in Ward 2 and seven in Ward 3. 

Illustrative image: A poster of ANC president hangs at a bus shelter in Msunduzi on 7 May 2024. (Photo: Felix Dlangamandla)



Wards 9 and 19 are in the northern section, bordering the uMdoni municipality. MK beat the ANC by 11 percentage points and the IFP by 13 in Ward 9. Ward 19 extends to the beaches. The IFP came first here by a mere 0.25%, pipping MK, with the ANC 8 percentage points behind the IFP. 

Ward 11 is in the northwest of the municipality and does not extend to the border. MK beat the IFP by 8 percentage points and the ANC by 11. 

MK Supporters at an uMkhonto Wesizwe rally in uMzumbe, KZN, on 17 June 2024, ahead of by-elections on 19 June. (Photo: Gallo Images / Darren Stewart)



The by-elections: Six ward councillors defected to MK party after they were suspended from the ANC for colluding with the IFP to remove the ANC mayor and install an IFP mayor. Instead of fighting their suspension they crossed to MK. The group is informally led by former Ward 11 councillor and former speaker Sibonelo Maphumulo. The by-elections were scheduled to be held before the national elections but the MEC for cooperative governance and traditional affairs, Bongiwe Sithole-Moloi, refused to proclaim the by-elections and they were not able to be held before 29 May. 

Ward 1 (KwaDweshula Nyamande) uMzumbe in Ugu: ANC 47% (67%) MK 24% IFP 18% (24%) ATM 5% (4%) EFF 4% (2%) APEMO 1% (1%) 


The setting: This is a rural ward in the interior and includes numerous villages such as KwaDweshula and Nyamande. 

The by-election: Thulo Mkhungo, the former ANC councillor who defected to MK, decided to run for his old seat.

The ANC lost 20 percentage points in the ward but was still able to win it comfortably. The ANC won six of the seven voting districts, losing one to MK. The ANC finished 10 percentage points up from what it received in the ward on the provincial ballot in May. 

MK finished second with 24% but is well down from the 40% it received a few weeks ago on the provincial ballot. This result was an outlier for the IFP as it declined from 2021. 

Poll: 46% (55%)

Velenkosini Hlabisa, IFP President (right) briefs the media on coalitions at IFP Head Office on June 12, 2024 in Durban, (Photo by Gallo Images/Darren Stewart)


Ward 2 (Mabheleni St Faith’s), uMzumbe in Ugu: IFP 39% (7%) MK 31% ANC 28% (79%) EFF  2% (10%) 


The setting: This is a rural ward in the interior. It is even further from the coast as it sits above Ward 1. It includes villages such as St Faith’s and Mabheleni. 

The by-election: The former ANC councillor who defected to MK was not the candidate for the MK in this election. 

The IFP shocked the ANC and the MK in this ward by beating MK by 158 votes and the ANC by 203. The IFP prevailed in four of the seven voting districts. 

The IFP was well up from the 23% it received here on the provincial ballot. While MK beat the ANC for second place, it was down 14 percentage points from the 45% it obtained on the provincial ballot in May. 

The ANC’s percentage vote share declined by more than 50 percentage points compared with 2021, but it was very similar to what it received on the provincial ballot in May. It was a similar story for the EFF, well down from 2021 but very similar to a few weeks ago. 

Poll: 46% (45%)


Ward 3 (Deyi Maria Trost) uMzumbe, Ugu: ANC 48% (72%) MK 29% IFP 22% (17%) EFF 1% (3%)


The setting: This ward sits above Ward 2. It is deep in the uMzumbe interior. The ward includes the Maria Trost Trappist Mission. 

The by-election: The former ANC councillor who defected to MK was not the candidate for MK in this election. 

The ANC lost a third of its percentage support in the ward but still beat MK by more than 370 votes to retain Ward 3. The ANC won six of the eight voting districts in the ward, with MK winning the remaining two.

MK was 12 percentage points down from its showing here in May, while the ANC was 14 percentage points up compared with 29 May. The IFP and EFF all but matched their provincial election returns in the ward. 

Poll: 51% (46%)

The MK party held a rally in Umzumbe on 17 June 2024 in the run-up to by-elections on 19 June. (Photo: Gallo Images / Darren Stewart)


Ward 9 (Magwaza Shozi) uMzumbe, Ugu: IFP 45% (21%) MK 26% ANC 24% (68%) EFF 3% (4%) NFP 1% (<1%)


The setting: This ward is on the northern border of the municipality closer to towns like Scottburgh. It is also rural and is west of Ifafa Beach, between the Mzimkulwana and Fafa rivers.

The by-election: Protas Duma, the former ANC ward councillor who defected to MK, was the candidate for the latter in this election.

The IFP caused a sensational upset in Ward 9 by beating MK by 404 votes and the ANC by 454 votes. The IFP came first in five of the eight districts, with MK coming out tops in two of the districts and the ANC only in one district. 

The IFP was 15 percentage points up from its provincial ballot returns in May, while MK was 13 percentage points off its provincial ballot mark. 

The ANC was 44 percentage points down from its impressive 2021 haul, but only 4 percentage points down from the provincial ballot result in May. 

Poll: 46% (39%)


Ward 11 (Dingimbiza Nyangwini) uMzumbe, Ugu: MK 31% IFP 31% (18%) ANC 26% (57%) EFF 8% (19%) ATM 3% (1%) AEF 1%


The setting: This ward is closer to the coast and sits above the KwaMakosi River. 

The by-election: Sbonelo Maphumulo, the former ANC ward councillor and former Speaker who defected to MK, was the candidate for MK in this election. He was also the unofficial leader of the six councillors who defected to the MK party. 

Maphumulo will surely get a congratulatory call from MK leader Jacob Zuma for this milestone result. Maphumulo won his seat back by 17 votes.

MK and ANC both won two of the five voting districts each, with the IFP winning the other. The turnout was high in the districts where the IFP and MK did best. What was crucial for MK is that its stronghold had more registered voters than the IFP’s best district. 

MK was down six percentage points from its provincial ballot total. The IFP was slightly up from its provincial ballot total, with the EFF up by 4 percentage points. The ANC matched its provincial ballot total from May. 

Poll: 58% (51%)


EFF supporters drive past an MK party rally at the eSbanini Sports Ground in uMzumbe on 17 June 2024. (Photo: Gallo Images / Darren Stewart)


Ward 19 (Mnamfu) uMzumbe, Ugu: IFP 40% (34%) ANC 36% (57%) MK  23% EFF 1% (6%) NFP <1% (2%) AEF 0


The setting: This ward is south of the principal town of Mthwalume. It is much closer to the sea than other contested wards. It is on the northern edge of the municipality on the border of uMdoni. 

The by-election: Thuthukani Jeza, the former ANC ward councillor and former Speaker who defected to MK, was the candidate for MK in this election.

The IFP beat the ANC by 92 votes in this ward and MK by 384. The three parties shared one voting district each. The IFP won the turnout battle, getting its voters out in the voting district it carried. This would prove crucial in taking the ward off the ANC. 

The IFP grew by five percentage points compared with the 2024 provincial ballot, with the ANC improving by eight percentage points. MK was down here by 12 percentage points. The EFF’s support remained at 1% compared with the provincial ballot.

Poll: 48% (52%)


Other by-elections


There are also by-elections in Zululand and Western Cape on Wednesday. Wayne Sussman will unpack the results in Daily Maverick on Thursday morning. DM

Read more in Daily Maverick: Early surge by Zuma’s MK party in rural KZN shows potential to lead provincial legislature as ANC falters

Read more in Daily Maverick: Zuma’s MK party snatches votes from ANC, IFP in fierce Zululand contest as it gives big parties another huge fright

Categories:

Tags: