Infinite patience no more — the ANC must show it can tackle corruption now, or face further decline

Last week, the ANC’s National Executive Committee met to evaluate the results of the 29 May elections. Or, more accurately, to discuss why it performed so badly. At the centre of this was a report by Joel Netshitenzhe, the head of the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.

The report is probably the most in-depth public document tackling the subject so far. It examines not just the ANC’s performance, but also those of the other bigger parties, including the DA, the EFF and MK, and presumably set the stage for the debate that followed.

It should be remembered that this question — Why did the ANC do so badly? — is likely to be debated for many years to come; even 10 years from now there will be strong opinions about it.

That said, Netshitenzhe’s analysis provides some salient insights.

He agrees with several others who have pointed to the role that identity and ethnicity played in the elections.

While it seems uncontroversial to suggest that in democracies around the world many voters support the candidate most like them, such sentiment can cause intense reactions. However, there is much evidence showing that this is true. 

In this case, as Netshitenzhe writes, the fact that MK received so much support from KwaZulu-Natal is important. 

It may well become more important in the years to come. It has often been lamented on this webpage that our democracy, like others, is suffering from the rise and perhaps domination of identity politics.

One insight from the report is that where the ANC did well there was a low voter turnout, and where the ANC did badly there was a high turnout. 

As Netshitenzhe notes, “The province where the ANC performed well (Limpopo at 73.3 percent, Eastern Cape at 62.8 percent and North West at 57.73 percent) registered the lowest turnouts. This had the effect of eroding its aggregate national figures. The more intensely contested provinces of KwaZulu-Natal, Northern Cape, Gauteng and Western Cape had higher turnouts on either side of 60 percent.” 

Interestingly, these provinces are where there were more parties and more campaigning. This suggests that many did not vote in places where the ANC was less threatened.

The real danger to the ANC here is that it suggests that if there are options other than the ANC, people will choose them — and should more parties emerge in the future, then many voters will find those new choices tempting.

To put it another way, the reason so many people did not vote in Limpopo, Eastern Cape and North West is that there was no serious contender to vote for.

Netshitenzhe also builds on the work of the analyst Dawie Scholtz, who has suggested there was a very significant voter differential between townships and suburban areas.

Only 55% of people in predominantly black areas voted, while 71% of people in predominantly white areas did.

This obviously helped the DA while working against the ANC and the EFF.

As has been pointed out before, this is a reminder of how often elections are about turnout and why the real objective of a campaign these days is not so much about changing minds, but convincing people to go to the ballot box.

Zille’s prediction