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Ireland on the brink of glory, France on the precipice of disaster in Dublin showdown

Ireland on the brink of glory, France on the precipice of disaster in Dublin showdown
Joe McCarthy of Ireland breaks with the ball as he breaks through the tackle of Jac Morgan of Wales during the Guinness Six Nations 2025 match between Wales and Ireland at Principality Stadium on February 22, 2025 in Cardiff, Wales. (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)
Jon Cardinelli
By Jon Cardinelli
6 Mar 2025
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The result of the Six Nations clash in Dublin this Saturday will shape Ireland and France’s respective campaigns, while the Springboks — who will face both teams in November — will be watching closely.

The Springbok coaches will meet with 55 players at an alignment camp in Cape Town this week to plan for the upcoming international season.

The 2025 Test schedule is not quite finalised, with 13 Tests confirmed as well as a non-Test against the Barbarians on 28 June also added to the itinerary. The Boks are also hoping to also add one more Test to the schedule although a date, opponent and venue have not been revealed.

Two Tests against the All Blacks in New Zealand during the Rugby Championship as well as the fixtures against Ireland and France in Europe represent South Africa’s toughest assignments for the calendar year.

In the coming days, Rassie Erasmus will relay his plans to a wide group of players. At the same time, he will monitor the performances of the New Zealand teams in Super Rugby Pacific, and keep an especially close eye on the Six Nations.

The northern hemisphere showpiece has reached the business end, and the result of the marquee fixture at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday could shape the narrative for the remainder of the 2025 Test season.

Ireland on the brink, France on the precipice


Ireland came into this tournament without Andy Farrell – who has taken a sabbatical to focus on his duties as British & Irish Lions head coach before the tour of Australia — as well as a few key players. As a result, many critics and bookies installed France as the title favourites.

So much has changed after three rounds, with Ireland securing consecutive wins over England, Scotland and Wales as well as 14 out of a possible 15 log points. They remain on track to make history and claim their third consecutive Six Nations title.

Whether they bank a second Grand Slam in the space of three years will depend on the result of the showdown with France.

Tom Rogers of Wales is tackled by Jamison Gibson-Park and Peter O'Mahony of Ireland during the Six Nations at Principality Stadium on 22 February 2025. (Photo: Dan Istitene / Getty Images)



France thrashed Wales 43-0 in the opening round, although the scoreline only served to highlight the Dragons’ plight. After France suffered a campaign-damaging 26-25 loss to England at Twickenham, coach Fabien Galthié came in for criticism at home and abroad, with some going as far to suggest that the coach was wasting a golden generation of French players.

That statement will be explored in greater depth as the season wears on.

Galthié was widely praised after he transformed the national side in 2020, and won the Six Nations Grand Slam in 2022. Even after France fell to eventual champions South Africa during the quarter-final stage of the 2023 World Cup, they were viewed by many as rugby’s leading nation.

As things stand today, France’s clubs have won the past four Champions Cup tournaments, while their juniors have claimed three of the past four World Rugby U20 Championship titles.

What the defeat to the Boks in 2023 as well as the recent loss to England exposed was the national side’s tendency to buckle under the weight of expectation.

Galthié has done a fantastic job to revive the national side, and French rugby may be thriving domestically, but a return of one Test trophy in six seasons is simply unacceptable for a nation stacked with more talent and resources than most.

Three-horse race


With all this in mind, it’s fair to say that the pressure is on France rather than Ireland before the meeting in Dublin.

Ireland will be desperate to maintain their mental hold on the French, and to protect an undefeated record against Six Nations opposition that stretches back to 2021.

But a loss wouldn’t necessarily cost Ireland a shot at the title, as they will have the benefit of facing Italy in their final fixture.

France thrashed the Azzurri 73-24 in Rome recently. Following that result, Ireland will believe that a bonus-point victory in the Italian capital is well within their grasp, and ultimately an historic hat-trick of Six Nations titles.

Fabien Galthie, head coach of France. (Photo: Clive Mason / Getty Images)



That said, France will start the fourth round with a superior points difference to Ireland (91 to 28). If France and Ireland finish the championship with the same number of log points and victories, points difference will serve as the tie-breaker, and Galthié’s side will lift the trophy.

If France beat Ireland in Dublin and then go on to win their final match against Scotland in Paris, they will keep the growing group of critics at bay.

There is a chance that England could steal the title, if France beat Ireland but lose to Scotland, and England win their next two matches against Italy and Wales with a try-scoring bonus point.

How the narrative could shift


If Ireland beat France and crack on to win a third consecutive title, they will continue to be recognised as the pre-eminent northern hemisphere side. Farrell will pick a host of Ireland stars for the Lions tour, and if the composite side claims an emphatic Test series win in Australia, the Irish will head into the subsequent series of matches — which includes a grudge match against the Boks on 22 November — with the opportunity to finish the season at the top of the world rankings.

Of course, if they blow this chance against the French, and surrender the Six Nations title, Farrell himself will come under scrutiny.

Three stalwarts in Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray and Cian Healy have confirmed that they will retire after the Six Nations, and it remains to be seen whether a younger, less experienced side can win consistently during the Autumn Nations series. Ireland may possess a number of world-class players, but doesn’t boast the quality in depth of South Africa and France.

Galthié will feel the pressure if his side loses this Saturday, and if France finish the Six Nations in third place below Ireland and England.

Joe McCarthy of Ireland breaks with the ball as he fends off Jac Morgan of Wales. (Photo: Michael Steele / Getty Images)



The French rugby federation has already decided to rest Antoine Dupont and a host of first-choice players for the three-Test series in New Zealand this July, and it’s possible that France could head into the November internationals with an overall record of three wins in eight matches.

A loss to the Boks in Paris on 8 November may force the French bosses to take drastic action. There is still a lot of rugby to be played between now and then, but it’s worth noting that it’s been 20 years since South Africa last lost to Les Bleus at Stade de France.

They may be the darlings of wider rugby community at present, and they may a possess generational talent in Dupont as well a clutch of world-beaters such as Gregory Alldritt, Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Damian Penaud, but they have yet to prove that they are a great side rather than a group of special individuals.

The match against Dublin could be a stepping stone this Saturday, or yet another stumbling block. DM

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