Job Security — Ramaphosa’s presidential hot seat might soon get even hotter

29 Apr 2024

Amid increasing speculation about whether a poor result for the ANC in next month’s election could mean the end of Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency, it must be remembered that the question of Ramaphosa’s future is intertwined with the issue of possible coalitions.

It appears that an ANC decision to retain or remove President Cyril Ramaphosa after next month’s general election cannot be made without the party first deciding who to form a coalition with, should its share of the national vote fall below 50%.

In 2019, the ANC said publicly that one of the reasons it had been able to keep so many voters after the State Capture era was that Ramaphosa was its leader.

For the first time since the end of the Mandela era, the leader of the ANC was more popular than the party.

Much has changed since then. As life has got harder for almost everyone in South Africa, and because of the Phala Phala scandal, Ramaphosa can no longer make such a claim.

Crucially, one of the reasons for this is that he has failed to carry out the reforms he promised. Despite saying repeatedly he would ensure accountability for what happened during State Capture, people implicated by the Zondo Commission are still in his government, appointed by him.

The ANC’s current situation and the speculation that it could fall to as low as 40% (unlikely as this may be in reality) has led to observers pondering whether a poor result for the ANC would see Ramaphosa’s removal.

Of course, it is not entirely clear what the definition of a “poor result” is. For Ramaphosa’s supporters, it could well be anything below 40%, while for his opponents it could be anything below 50%.

It has long been clear to everyone, inside and outside the ANC, that the party was bound to lose significant support. And if it is true that the ANC conducts its own polling, then those in the top leadership will have a clearer idea of the probable election trends several days before voting.

Any debate about “who is to blame” for a bad result could easily turn into a circular firing squad. Ramaphosa has been recorded telling a National Executive Committee meeting that other ANC leaders are not doing enough to help the party win the election.

Any meeting seeking to blame him could well find its way into the public domain again.

The big question

There are other key questions around this issue, the major one being: Who would take over — would it automatically be Deputy President Paul Mashatile?

The closest precedent for this is the events of 2008 when Kgalema Motlanthe, who was then deputy president of the ANC, replaced Thabo Mbeki as SA President. That was with the express permission, and possibly at the express request, of the then ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, and it was publicly agreed that Motlanthe’s presidency would be temporary.

This situation would be very different this time, as there would be no explicit understanding that whoever takes over from Ramaphosa would be there only temporarily. And so any negotiations about removing Ramaphosa risk becoming a major fight for power among different groups.

Should such a situation occur, and considering the divisions in the ANC, it could lead to chaos.

There is another problem for anyone wanting to use a poor election result against Ramaphosa: there may simply not be enough time for anyone to mount a challenge.

This is because if the ANC falls below 50% and needs a large coalition partner, the question of electing the President will be intertwined with the question of finding that partner.

It is highly unlikely that Ramaphosa would lead a Cabinet including EFF leaders in senior positions, just as it is impossible to imagine the DA in a coalition with Mashatile as President.

Any possible coalition partner would want to know who the President would be.

In terms of the Constitution, the National Assembly must meet “not more than 14 days after the election result has been declared [and] at its first sitting after its election, and whenever necessary to fill a vacancy, the National Assembly must elect a woman or a man from among its members to be the President”.

This means there would be only two weeks to form a coalition, or at least an informal working relationship, or to make the decision to form a minority administration.

This is only the start of what has to happen in those two weeks.

The ANC will also have to make decisions about who to elect as premiers in the provinces it wins, and which parties to work with in provinces it does not win outright (traditionally, the ANC does not announce premier candidates for provinces before elections; the NEC decides that after the election, partially to ensure there are female premiers too).

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024

A contentious meeting

Other important posts need to be filled: the new Speaker and Deputy Speaker in the National Assembly, and the chair of the National Council of Provinces.

This would be before what could be a very contentious NEC meeting that provides input into the new Cabinet.

The political activity around the leadership of the ANC in the two weeks after previous elections has been incredibly intense. This year, the coalition challenge will dial it up a notch.

To add some kind of leadership challenge or change on top of this may be impossible with the tight deadlines.

However, it would be foolish to completely rule out change to the upper echelon of the ANC.

First, with strong political backing, presidents can be deposed. Just as Zuma had the support to remove Mbeki in 2008, and Ramaphosa had the political backing to remove Zuma in 2018, someone with the proper backing could remove Ramaphosa — and quickly.

Second, Ramaphosa himself might feel duty-bound to resign because he had led the ANC to a poor result, or if there was an indication he would come under pressure from inside the ANC.

He reportedly came close to stepping down just before the 2022 ANC conference over the Phala Phala scandal, which suggests he is not wedded to the presidency.

But if he does not want to resign, that decision in itself could set this hypothetical process back for many months, and necessitate a special ANC electoral conference. As holding even a “normal” conference takes an extraordinary effort, it is possible the party would struggle to survive this process.

While the next few weeks will see much political activity ahead of voting day on 29 May, the election results could set the stage for the real political action of 2024. DM

Categories:

Maverick News

Tags:

DM is much better if you are signed in...

Maverick News

The big question

A contentious meeting