Jumbo decline — elephant numbers plummet across most of Africa

A continent-wide analysis by respected elephant scientists has found that within the single lifetime of a savanna elephant, their population has declined by 70% and in the lifetime of a forest elephant by 90%. The overall elephant decline is 77%. The scientists say these numbers could be underestimates.

The report, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, is one of the most comprehensive assessments ever taken of the two elephant species. It provides a much-needed quantitative assessment of their conservation status.

It used data from 475 sites across Africa going back to the 1960s, aggregating reports from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, the African Elephant Specialist Group, the African Elephant Database, government survey reports and questionnaires across the 37 countries where elephants occur.

From the mid-20th century, human population growth accelerated exponentially and, in Africa, land conversion from wildlife into farming caused elephants to be compressed into existing or newly created protected areas. Outside these areas, conflict with them increased, leading to their persecution and decline.

The survey, say the scientists, spans 53 years, which is less than the lifetime of a long-lived elephant and a mere two elephant generations.

They found markedly different trends within and between regions. Some populations have disappeared entirely, with others showing rapid growth. Southern Africa saw a 42% average increase in savanna elephant populations, but only 10% of surveyed populations in eastern Africa have been increasing.

Elephant populations in the northern and eastern savannas crashed and — in many areas — have become extinct. However, it was a different story in southern Africa, where there were increases in more than half the sites.

In other areas there were pockets of increase within broad areas of decline, which the scientists say offer opportunities to identify opportunities for conservation efforts.

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According to Boo Maisels, a conservation scientist at the Wildlife Conservation Society and a contributing author of the study, “While the overall picture is discouraging for both forest and savanna elephants, we see that some populations remain stable or are even growing.

“Examples [are] forest elephant of the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park in the Republic of Congo and the Mbam et Djerem National Park in Cameroon, and for savanna elephants, the Katavi-Rukwa and Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystems in Tanzania and the Kaza [Kavango–Zambezi] landscape in southern Africa.

“Our results tell us that if well protected and managed, elephant populations can still increase despite increasing pressures surrounding them and their habitats. Elephants need our help now more than ever.”

“This study forces us to reflect on a sobering reality,” said Dr Mike Chase of Elephants Without Borders. “Within a single lifetime, we have pushed one of Earth’s most ancient species to the brink. It is both a warning and a call to action — one we can no longer afford to ignore.

“Yet, it also reminds us of our capacity for change — where we choose to protect, life endures. The fate of elephants — and perhaps our own — depends on whether we heed this urgent call to protect what remains.”

Read more: One elephant remains in Knysna forest — should we reintroduce a herd or leave her be?

Senior author and elephant expert with Save the Elephants, George Wittemyer, said the study helped to pinpoint successful conservation actions in different contexts.

“We have to develop and implement a portfolio of effective solutions to address the diverse challenges elephants face across Africa.”

The study coincided with the World Wide Fund for Nature’s Living Planet Report, a comprehensive overview of the state of the natural world. Based on about 35,000 population trends across 5,495 species of amphibians, birds, fish, mammals and reptiles between 1970 and 2020, it found the size of wildlife populations plummeted by 73% on average, but 76% in Africa.

In the Kruger National Park, however, elephants are thriving, with the population at more than 30,000. By far the largest population covers a migration circuit between Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Zambia and Zimbabwe with, at last count, numbers over 120,000. DM