Kagiso Rabada set to become one of the best in Test cricket — but he needs more matches

Kagiso Rabada of South Africa smiles after dismissing Shardul Thakur of India during day one of the first Test match between South Africa and India at SuperSport Park in Centurion on 26 December 2023. Photo: Sydney Seshibedi/Gallo Images/Getty Images

By Keanan Hemmonsbey

27 Oct 2024

The bowling spearhead, who is the fastest bowler yet to take 300 Test wickets, is on track to become South Africa’s greatest.

Kagiso Rabada is maturing into the best Test bowler of our generation, but his sprinkling of Test match opportunities makes it hard to justify the claim.

Rabada recently became the fastest bowler to take 300 Test wickets with his brilliant dismissal of Bangladeshi batter Mushfiqur Rahim – a delivery that jagged back beautifully off the seam in Dhaka and dislodged Rahim’s off and middle stumps.

It took the impressive quick a mere 11,817 deliveries to reach the mark. He is also the youngest South African to the mark, at 29 years and 150 days.

He reached the 300 Test wicket mark in 785 fewer deliveries than the next-quickest to the mark, Pakistani legend Waqar Younis.

That’s just shy of 131 overs of bowling.

The next two fastest to 300 wickets, by number of balls, are icons in South African fast-bowling – Dale Steyn and Allan Donald.

The three quicks followed seamlessly one after the other to define fast bowling in the country. Steyn eclipsed the high standards set before him and Rabada is on a journey to do the same, but will need to play more Tests to truly solidify his status.

No comparison

The number of Test matches South Africa play has decreased substantially over the past few years, with Cricket South Africa (CSA) prioritising white-ball cricket.

This kind of cricket, specifically T20, has become a money-maker across the globe. This was starkly proved when CSA decided to send a weakened Test squad for a two-match Test series in New Zealand at the start of the year to ensure their newly formed SA20 league would have all its star local players present.

England, on the other hand – mainly because of the prioritisation of the longest format by their board – play far more Test cricket than any other nation and in turn their legends are able to stamp their authority on the game.

England have played 114 Test matches since Rabada made his Test debut.

South Africa have played 73 in that time, of which Rabada has played 65, meaning he has played almost 90% of South Africa’s Test matches since his debut.

If he had played the equivalent percentage of matches for England, Rabada would have played 103 Test matches already.

Rabada Kagiso Rabada smiles after dismissing India’s Shardul Thakur on day one of the first Test at SuperSport Park in Centurion on 26 December 2023. (Photo: Sydney Seshibedi / Gallo Images / Getty Images)

Rabada currently takes about 4.7 wickets per Test match. Had he played 103 matches since his debut, Rabada would have had about 484 Test wickets currently, undoubtedly making him the premier fast bowler of this generation.

These numbers are, of course, hypothetical and do not account for possible injuries, loss of form or rest periods that could have occurred because of an increased workload.

But they do serve to demonstrate the ridiculous discrepancy between the number of Test matches South Africa play compared with England.

England batting great Joe Root, who recently became the fifth-highest run-scorer in Test cricket history, made his Test debut only three years and 11 months before Rabada but he has played more than double the number of matches Rabada has (148).

Fastest to 300 wickets

Rabada broke on to the scene as a tearaway quick with a fiery attitude. He instantly looked like he belonged at that level as he took a one-day international hat-trick on debut against Bangladesh in Mirpur. He claimed six wickets for 16 runs in the match, which remain his best figures in the format.

However, the then 20-year-old had an unremarkable start to his Test career. At the end of 2015 he took only one wicket in his debut match against India in Mohali, which South Africa lost by 108 runs.

The entire series was a harsh introduction to the rigours of the longest format, as South Africa went on to lose the four-match series 3-0.

But from there it’s only been up for Rabada, who went on to claim a staggering 168 wickets in his first 35 Test matches, which included nine five-wicket hauls.

And while Rabada’s raw attributes for fast bowling have always been elite – including his height, athleticism and ability to consistently deliver a cricket ball at about 140km/h – his white-line fever when on the field made him a bowler that batters feared.

Rabada’s aggression reached boiling point in 2018 when he was suspended for two matches after brushing against Australian batter Steve Smith after dismissing him.

“I’m a lot calmer,” Rabada said recently about how he has changed since making his debut. “Back then I used to act on impulse but now I don’t do that as much.”

While Rabada’s aggression is still at the forefront of how he bowls, he has managed to control it better as he has grown into the spearhead of the South African bowling attack in all formats.

Record holder

Rabada is in the prime of his career, and a combination of elite conditioning and some luck has ensured he has had no serious injuries thus far.

Injuries commonly become more of a factor for fast bowlers as they move into their thirties, as Rabada will do next year. But if he were to remain injury-free and continue taking wickets at the record-breaking strike rate of 39.2 that he currently has, he could take over Steyn’s record for most Test wickets by a South African.

Going on the same trajectory, Rabada would need to play 94 matches to reach Steyn’s record (439).

The Future Tours Programme only runs until 2027 and South Africa is set to play 21 more Test matches before then, which should – given that his Test match appearances are prioritised – take Rabada to 86 appearances by 2027.

He would still only be 32 by then and in with a chance to make history.

“For me, my goal is to be the best that I can be,” Rabada told Daily Maverick earlier this year. “Continue being the best that I can be, then everything takes care of itself.

“If a record is meant to be broken, then it will be broken, but my career – and I’m so lucky – is to play cricket and compete, and to play for my country.

“And to try to make sure we get on the right side of the result for the country.

“It’s always been about the country and playing for South Africa. That’s what it is, and being the best that I can be.

“Everything else is out of my control.” DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.

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No comparison

Record holder