Kenya's political landscape shifts amid Ruto's strategic alliances and the challenge of public trust

By Ronak Gopaldas and Daniel Van Dalen for ISS Today

1 Apr 2025

As the 2027 elections loom closer, three grand bargains will determine the president’s political future.

Nearly three years into his presidency, Kenyan President William Ruto faces mounting headwinds that threaten to derail his administration. The country is grappling with economic, political and social pressures.

Discontent, first sparked by protests against the Finance Bill of 2024, has resurfaced amid widespread distrust and anger over new social health insurance policies. Meanwhile, the impeachment of former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua has reshaped political dynamics within the coalition that brought Ruto to power.

Externally, foreign aid cuts and the unpredictability of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s policy shifts present several risks. Together, these factors have dampened international and domestic confidence in Kenya’s trajectory.

Against this, Ruto must broker a trifecta of grand bargains: balancing the demands of international creditors and partners, managing fluid domestic political alliances, and addressing Kenyan citizens’ concerns — all while the 2027 elections loom.

Kenya enjoyed a privileged relationship with the US under the Joe Biden administration, with Ruto dubbed Biden’s “blue-eyed boy”. Nairobi’s strategic location and geopolitical significance, coupled with shared interests in climate and security, strengthened ties between the two nations.

This was underscored by a series of high-profile diplomatic visits, including Ruto’s state visit to the White House last year — the first by an African leader since 2008 — and Antony Blinken and Jill Biden’s visits to Kenya between 2021 and 2024. Ruto also cultivated a strong relationship with Meg Whitman, the polarising former US ambassador to Kenya, who resigned following Trump’s election victory.

Key developments

Two key developments further demonstrated Kenya’s geopolitical importance to Washington. One was its designation as a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally in 2024, which elevated its role in regional and international security. The second was the deployment of 1,000 Kenyan police officers to combat gang violence in Haiti. Both are products of the strengthening of Kenya-US ties.

However, Trump’s return to power presents significant challenges for Kenya. Whether Ruto can navigate this shift and build bridges to safeguard the country’s economy remains to be seen. Two major concerns are potential foreign aid cuts and a reversal of the climate agenda, which underpinned much of the bilateral relationship under Biden.

Kenya is particularly vulnerable on both fronts. In the healthcare sector alone, an estimated 50,000 jobs are at risk, with experts warning of an escalating crisis in access to medical services and a potential brain drain. Similarly, aggressive cuts to climate funding threaten critical clean energy initiatives and will hamper Kenya’s ability to respond to climate-related disasters.

The key question is whether Ruto can find a pathway to Trump, given his historical closeness to Biden, or whether Trump will hold it against him — as he did with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Finalising the pending Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership, initiated during Trump’s first term, could be an obvious starting point. Ruto must also craft and articulate a compelling value proposition for why Kenya should retain its favoured status under the new administration.

Ruto’s diplomatic challenges are eclipsed by discontent on the domestic front and the need to manage stability and his own political survival. Since mass protests against the 2024 Finance Bill and associated taxes in June/July 2024, the hustler president has remained unpopular with the local population, particularly the youth.

Kenya’s so-called Gen-Z movement remains ready to mobilise against a statesman they view as failing to address various socioeconomic challenges. These include high unemployment, governance shortcomings, and a flawed national healthcare scheme — all while taxes have increased. These taxes have been touted as a means to ease Kenya’s dire fiscal position and unsustainable debt amid efforts to appease both the International Monetary Fund and creditors — and avoid a default.

While seemingly prudent, Ruto’s attempts at placating international finance institutions and remedying Kenya’s fiscal shortcomings have been increasingly rejected by the population. This is amid popular perceptions that he is placing undue pressure on Kenyans while failing to address wasteful expenditure, inflated salaries and enduring corruption.

With Ruto’s back seemingly against the wall, he has been forced into another “handshake deal”, which has become synonymous with Kenyan politics. In the wake of last year’s Gen-Z protests, Ruto brought in members of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) — led by prominent opposition figure Raila Odinga — in a bid to create a unity government. This led to Odinga’s fourth “handshake”, culminating in a 7 March 2025 agreement to form a broad-based government.

Ruto will be hopeful that Odinga and his Orange Democratic Movement’s increased inclusion in the government will bolster their alliance, while also hoping that Odinga’s large base could translate into some support before the 2027 polls.

The broad-based government has similarly brought in politicians from previously excluded groups, hoping to secure their support. To this end, securing Odinga’s support also prevents him from aligning himself with the ousted Rigathi Gachagua, who is stewing in the vote-rich Mount Kenya region and seeking a return to politics.

Incidentally, Gachagua has formed his own alliance with Odinga’s running mate Martha Karua, who like the former deputy president was used to secure the Mount Kenya vote during the 2022 elections.

As the 2025 Finance Bill presentation and anniversary of last year’s unrest approach, Ruto needs to appease the local population, meet the expectations of anxious creditors, and ensure that Kenya’s powerful patronage networks continue to benefit.

Buffer

While the Odinga deal seemingly provides a buffer, Ruto remains vulnerable. His political survival will hinge on his actions over the coming months, with the 2025 Finance Bill potentially determining his future.

Ruto will need to prioritise public demands over creditor expectations to prevent any mobilisation against his position. However, failure to sufficiently address creditor concerns would pose its own risks to the economy, and by extension Ruto, over the medium to longer terms.

Even if Ruto strikes this delicate balance, precedent in Kenya suggests that anything is possible before the 2027 elections. DM

Ronak Gopaldas, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Consultant and Signal Risk Director, and Daniel van Dalen, Signal Risk Country Risk Analyst.

First published by ISS Today.

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