KwaZulu-Natal set for fierce battle as four parties vie for votes in 2024 election

The ANC lost a seemingly safe seat to the IFP in Newcastle in a by-election on 14 February. This sounds like a reliable marker of future trends as South Africa gears up for the highly anticipated 2024 general election. All eyes are on KwaZulu-Natal, where the political landscape resembles a veritable battlefield. Amid the chaos and uncertainty, the ANC finds itself besieged on many fronts, facing formidable internal and external challenges.

At the forefront of this political circus lurks the enigmatic shadow of Jacob Zuma, once a towering patriarch but now reduced to a spoiler element leading a rag-tag bunch of misfits in the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) Party. With an emotional and tribally flavoured following, he has an uncanny knack of stirring up his comrades in the ANC.

Zuma poses a threat to the ANC’s dominance in the region, with the prospect that the MK Party will pick up a few seats, largely through the proportional representation list system. His persistent populist rhetoric strikes a chord with an ANC faction that has unhappily languished on the fringes as the fruits of patronage dried up after Zuma’s exit from the presidency.

MK is emboldened after splitting the ANC vote in the Newcastle by-election, allowing the IFP to slip through.

But Zuma is not the only contender vying for power in KwaZulu-Natal. Julius Malema’s EFF also looms large on the political horizon, albeit with less intensity than the MK Party. Nevertheless, the EFF’s unfiltered brand of pseudo-radical politics and its apparent focus on economic emancipation have gained traction among marginalised communities, further eroding the ANC’s traditional support base.

Whether the youngsters who attend its rallies have the patience to stand in the horrendously inefficient Home Affairs queues to get an ID to enable them to vote is anybody’s guess. There’s ample research to show that young people, especially in the 18-to-25 age category, don’t turn up on election day.

Adding to the ANC’s woes is the internal turmoil in its ranks. The provincial executive committee, plagued by infighting and power struggles, has failed to find solid ground since the ousting of former chairperson and premier Sihle Zikalala in 2022.

His removal, intended to bring about change and rejuvenate the party, has instead resulted in a loss of invaluable organisational and mobilisation experience, leaving the ANC vulnerable and disjointed.

Siboniso Duma, the current chairperson of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, found himself thrust into the leadership. He is grappling with the daunting task of holding the party together amid mounting challenges.

But his leadership has been marred by a series of missteps and controversies as he lurches from one foot-in-mouth crisis to another. His inability to provide coherent direction or effectively fend off the ANC’s adversaries must surely be grounds to question his ability to lead.

Meanwhile, the resurgent IFP and the DA are capitalising on the ANC’s weaknesses, positioning themselves as viable alternatives for disillusioned voters.

The IFP, once a dominant force in KwaZulu-Natal politics, has staged a remarkable comeback, tapping into nostalgia and regional pride to garner support. Similarly, the DA’s carefully crafted illusion of accountability, good governance and economic prosperity resonates with urban voters who are hardly likely to question the party’s internal racial dynamics or capacity to govern.

As the countdown to the general election ticks away, the political landscape in KwaZulu-Natal remains fraught with uncertainty and volatility. The ANC, which was once the undisputed ruling party, now finds itself locked in a bitter struggle to make the 50% threshold while beset by internal strife and external threats.

With the MK Party, the EFF and the resurgent IFP and DA all vying for a chunk of the pie, the outcome of the election hangs in the balance, with potentially far-reaching implications for the country’s trajectory.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024 Knowledge Base

Read more in Daily Maverick: 2024 elections

In this climate of open warfare, characterised by intense competition and relentless power struggles, the people of KwaZulu-Natal stand confused at the crossroads. The choices they make at the ballot box may well shape the destiny of the province and the nation as a whole. Will they stick with the ANC, despite its shortcomings and internal divisions, or will they gamble with charting a new, uncertain course?

Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: The battle for KwaZulu-Natal is at fever pitch and the stakes have never been higher. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R29.