Kyiv appeals to president-elect Trump’s ‘strength’; North Korean troops engaged in combat in Russia’s Kursk - US

7 Nov 2024

Ukraine appealed to Donald Trump’s image as a tough leader on Wednesday in the hope of persuading the returning US president not to abandon its cause in pursuit of peace with Russia.

North Korean troops were engaged in combat in Russia’s Kursk in recent days for the first time, two US officials told Reuters on Wednesday.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that Moscow was ready to keep supplying gas to Europe via Ukraine, but this should be agreed by Kyiv and the European countries involved.

Facing uncertain fate under Trump, Ukraine appeals to his ‘strength’

Ukraine appealed to Donald Trump’s image as a tough leader on Wednesday in the hope of persuading the returning US president not to abandon its cause in pursuit of peace with Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelensky was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump, who has criticised the scale of US military and financial support for Kyiv and vowed to end the war with Russia quickly, without saying how.

In a message released shortly after Trump claimed victory, Zelensky said he looked forward to an “era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership”.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs,” wrote Zelensky. “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.”

Trump’s victory over Vice-President Kamala Harris raises questions over the future of US support, which has so far been key to Ukraine’s survival against a much larger and better-equipped enemy.

Another tough winter looms as Russian forces have been advancing at the fastest rate since Ukraine first repulsed their invasion at the outskirts of Kyiv in early 2022. Ukraine, for its part, has launched its first major incursion into Russian territory.

Any fresh attempt to end the war is likely to involve peace talks of some kind, which have not been held since the early months of the war.

Moscow’s forces occupy around a fifth of Ukraine. Russia says the war cannot end until its claimed annexations are recognised. Kyiv demands all of its territory back, a position that has largely been supported by Western allies under the outgoing US administration of Joe Biden.

Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said Trump would be likely to push for swift talks to end the war, which could involve “certain concessions” to Russia. But he said he expected Washington would be unlikely to capitulate completely to Moscow’s demands.

“I don’t think that Trump would agree to peace only on Russia’s terms, as this would look like a defeat for the US, and his advisers understand this,” he told Reuters.

Ukraine’s international sovereign bonds rallied by nearly two cents in early European trading on Wednesday, with investors saying the market was anticipating a quicker end to the war now that Trump had won.

As Ukraine’s top military backer, the US has sent tens of billions of dollars in arms and led international efforts to isolate Moscow diplomatically and through financial sanctions.

But Ukraine has also expressed frustration at delays in approving missiles, tanks, planes and other weapons by the Biden administration, whose fear of escalation led to a piecemeal approach that critics say gave Moscow time to recover from early failures.

Most recently, Ukraine has called on the West to lift restrictions on using missiles to attack deep into Russia, which Kyiv says is necessary to disrupt long-range Russian attacks.

Legislator Oleksandra Ustinova, who heads the Parliamentary Commission on Arms and Munitions, said Trump’s picks for the top diplomatic, security and defence jobs would be key in determining the Trump administration’s impact on the war.

“These are the people who will decide the fate of Ukraine,” Ustinova told Reuters. “Right now, it is highly likely that Mike Pompeo will be the defence secretary, and he is a great friend of Ukraine.

“Of course, everyone is worried when any change happens. On the other hand, we understand that this was an expected outcome and we have always worked with both parties.”

Residents of the capital, Kyiv, which comes under regular drone and missile attacks from Russian forces and faces a winter of lengthy power shortages, said they were eager to hear how Trump would stop the war.

“I guess we are all waiting for just the only thing — just to stop the war, and as Trump promised to stop the war in just one day, we are all waiting for it,” said Oleksii Iarokha (41).

“It could be today, tomorrow, we can wait till Friday. You are the president, please do it, Mr Trump.”

Others pondered how Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom the Republican has avoided sharply criticising, might affect new US policy on Ukraine.

North Korean troops engaged in combat in Kursk

North Korean troops were engaged in combat in Russia’s Kursk in recent days for the first time, two US officials told Reuters on Wednesday.

One of the officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said they took part in combat on 4 November. The officials did not say whether there were any North Korean casualties and did not provide further details on the engagement.

Zelensky said on Tuesday that the first battles between the Ukrainian military and North Korean troops “open a new page in instability in the world” after his defence minister said a “small engagement” had taken place.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed, in an interview with South Korean television, that the first engagement had occurred with North Korean troops, an apparent escalation in a conflict that began when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Earlier this week, the Pentagon said that there were at least 10,000 North Korean troops in Kursk, adding that between 11,000 and 12,000 troops were in Russia.

Europe, Ukraine have to agree on gas transit deal, says Russia

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that Moscow was ready to keep supplying gas to Europe via Ukraine, but this should be agreed by Kyiv and the European countries involved.

The current transit deal expires at the end of the year.

“Of course, in my opinion, the European countries that currently receive gas through this corridor are interested in continuing such cooperation,” Novak, who is in charge of Russia’s energy policy, told reporters on the sidelines of the Valdai Discussion Club in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

“We are ready to supply [gas], but not much depends on us, so probably this should be negotiated directly between the users and the country through which the transit is provided.”

Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic metres of gas via Ukraine in 2023 — only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.

Ukraine has refused to renew the deal with Russia due to the ongoing military invasion.

Kremlin reacts with caution to Trump’s victory

The Kremlin reacted cautiously on Wednesday after Trump was elected US president, saying the US was still a hostile state and that only time would tell if Trump’s rhetoric on ending the Ukraine war translated into reality.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when the Soviet Union and the US came close to nuclear war.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Trump had made some important statements about wanting to end the Ukraine war during his campaign, but only time would tell if they led to action.

“Let us not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country, which is both directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state [in Ukraine],” Peskov told reporters.

Peskov said he was not aware of any plans by Putin to congratulate Trump on his victory and that relations with Washington were at a historic low.

“We have repeatedly said that the US is able to contribute to the end of this conflict. This cannot be done overnight, but ... the US is capable of changing the trajectory of its foreign policy. Will this happen, and if so, how ... we will see after [Trump’s inauguration in] January.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow had no illusions about Trump, noting that there was what it called a bipartisan anti-Russian position among the US ruling elite designed to try to contain Russia.

Russia will increase nuclear threats, says security expert

Russia will keep sending nuclear warning signals to its enemies in the West until they get the message, said an influential foreign policy hawk on Wednesday.

Security expert Sergei Karaganov has consistently urged President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, and in the past has even advocated a pre-emptive strike on a Nato country.

Putin has said that Russia does not need to resort to nuclear weapons to achieve victory in the Ukraine war. But in September he said Moscow was extending the list of scenarios under which it would consider using such weapons.

Karaganov told Reuters he hoped that strikes against Western countries would not happen. But he said the changes announced by Putin to Russia’s nuclear doctrine were part of an effort to “sober up our Western partners, especially the Europeans.

“That’s exactly it. There will be steps up the ladder of nuclear escalation, of which several have been made [and] there will be more. Until finally, the Europeans run away,” he said.

Since the start of the Ukraine war, Putin has made a series of statements interpreted by the West as nuclear threats. In September, he signalled that Moscow would consider responding with nuclear weapons if the US and its allies allowed Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with long-range Western missiles.

He has also staged a series of nuclear exercises, changed Russia’s position on major arms treaties and announced the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in its ally Belarus, which borders three Nato countries.

Karaganov was speaking on the fringes of an annual conference, the Valdai forum, where Putin will speak on Thursday and is likely to respond to questions from Russian and Western experts about nuclear policy, the Ukraine war and the future of Russia-US relations under a new Trump presidency.

Russia’s grain policies help Ukraine secure sales

Russia’s curbs on wheat exports have inadvertently helped Ukraine secure lucrative sales to Egypt this week while also inflating prices for the world’s top importer, traders said.

Egypt’s state grains buyer Gasc bought 290,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender on Monday. The purchase included 120,000 tonnes from Ukraine as well as 120,000 tonnes from Romania and 50,000 tonnes from Bulgaria.

Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter and Egypt’s most important supplier, was kept out of the sale due to unofficial policies to prevent a price spike at home as the country seeks to combat inflation partly fuelled by military spending.

The restrictions, mostly not officially announced, include a minimum export price, export taxes and limiting sales of Russian grain by foreign trading houses.

“Had Russian exporters been allowed to offer realistic market prices, which would be much lower, I think they would have pretty much wiped up the Egyptian sale,” said one trader.

“The Russian moves are making Ukrainian supplies look more attractive, especially to importers in a difficult financial state like Egypt.”

A trader in Ukraine said the Russian restrictions had provided more opportunities although the country had already realised about 60% of its potential sales this year.

“The cheapest supplier is leaving, so it’s probably not who wins but who loses,” said the trader, referring to how Russian policies could raise the cost of wheat for importers. DM

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