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Climate change’s ‘undeniable’ fingerprints all over deadly California wildfires

Climate change’s ‘undeniable’ fingerprints all over deadly California wildfires
A palm tree burns at a Presbyterian Church during the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, California, US, on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. A fast-moving wildfire ripped through an affluent neighborhood in Los Angeles, forcing thousands of people to evacuate as the region braced for a brutal wind storm that could last well into the weekend. (Photo: Jill Connelly / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Julia Evans
By Julia Evans
12 Jan 2025
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The most destructive wildfires in Los Angeles’ history have left 16 people dead and displaced 180,000 residents, while many are reported missing. Scientists point to undeniable links to climate change, urging the global communities to act on lessons learnt.

A series of devastating wildfires continues to ravage the Los Angeles area in the US, with at least 16 confirmed deaths and at least 153,000 people evacuated as of 12 January 2025.

There are five active blazes, including in the Palisades between Santa Monica and Malibu, which already ranks as the most destructive fire in Los Angeles’ history, consuming nearly 20,000 acres.

“I don’t think it’s too early to attribute the event to unfolding climate change,” Professor Guy Midgley, director of the School for Climate Studies at Stellenbosch University, told Daily Maverick this week.

“I think there are several elements of this event  that clearly indicate that climate change is a contributing factor – the strength of the winds, the warmth of the air, the late onset of rainfall and the deep drought that has been happening in California.”

LA fires A palm tree burns in the Pacific Palisades neighbourhood of Los Angeles on 7 January 2025. Uncontrolled wildfires tore through parts of Los Angeles, fanned by extreme winds, forcing thousands of residents to flee and grounding firefighting aircraft. (Photo: Kyle Grillot / Bloomberg via Getty Images)


A climate change fingerprint


“The climate change fingerprints are all over the event; it’s undeniable,” said Midgley, who has worked in the fields of global change and biodiversity science since the 1980s.

He explained that the wildfires have been exacerbated by a combination of prolonged drought, dry vegetation (as a result of the world coming off the hottest year on record and less winter rainfall in Mediterranean regions), and powerful Santa Ana winds – all of which have been influenced by anthropogenic climate change in different ways.

Santa Ana winds are a type of katabatic wind, driven by high-pressure systems that compress and warm the air as it descends from the mountains toward the coast. 

This compression caused the air to heat up dramatically, resulting in dangerously warm winds that can worsen fire conditions.

“It’s like the berg wind on steroids,” he said, referring to South Africa’s  berg wind, which also brings dry, warm air.

Midgley pointed out that the pressure differentials causing these extreme winds have intensified owing to global warming. As the polar vortex breaks down due to global warming, it leads to more erratic weather patterns, including increased wind speeds and drier conditions.

“These very high Santa Ana winds zoomed down from the San Gabriel Mountains and accelerated through valleys,” he said. 

“In fact, they had hurricane-speed gusts up to 150km/h. It’s like a blast furnace.” 

These extreme winds also delayed aerial firefighting efforts for the first two days.

California, like other Mediterranean climates, traditionally receives winter rainfall, but this has diminished significantly in recent years. 

“Climate projections for years have been saying that those winter rainfall regions are likely to have hotter and drier winters,” said Peter Johnston, a climate scientist at the University of Cape Town (UCT).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report from 2021 warned that climate change is expected to increase both the frequency and intensity of wildfires in Mediterranean regions.

A section of the University of Cape Town’s library was left in ruins after a wildfire destroyed the facility on 19 April 2021. (Photo: Gallo Images / Die Burger / Jaco Marais)



LA fires UCT The University of Cape Town library burns on 18 April 2021 after a wildfire spread from the slopes of Table Mountain. The historic Mostert’s Mill and Rhodes Memorial Restaurant were also destroyed. (Photo: Gallo Images / Brenton Geach)


Lessons from the UCT fire


Midgley emphasised that valuable lessons can be learnt from the wildfire that swept through Table Mountain and UCT in April 2021. 

“There’s a couple of things that we learned from that fire, which the Californians might have actually been able to employ,” Midgley said.

He pointed out that Western Cape climate and weather data collected for more than a century shows the risk of such fires has doubled over the past 30 to 40 years, explaining that wildfire risk is quantified using fire danger indices, which combine variables such as wind speed, humidity, temperature and the availability of flammable material (such as dry vegetation or palm trees and pines).

The Jagger Reading Room was engulfed in flames after a fire ripped through Rhodes Memorial and made its way to the UCT campus. (Photo: Lerato Maduna)



“Given California’s warming trends and drying conditions, I would be surprised if they haven’t experienced a similar doubling of fire risk.”

A 2023 study found that nearly all the observed increases in burned areas over the past half-century were due to human-caused climate change, estimating that from 1971 to 2021, human-caused climate change contributed to a more than 172% increase in burned areas, with a more than 320% increase from 1996 to 2021. 

A structure burns in Los Angeles’ Pacific Palisades neighbourhood on 7 January 2025. (Photo: Kyle Grillot / Bloomberg via Getty Images)


Urban design and preparedness


“I think the main message here is that even the richest part of the world – with advanced warning, with some of the best firefighting equipment and people in the world and resources available to them – was unable to deal with the event,” Midgely noted.

Local authorities in Los Angeles are reportedly struggling to contain the wildfires, with less than 10% of them contained as of Saturday, while facing severe water constraints.

Midgley pointed out that even with warnings and strategic positioning of resources, firefighters struggled, with high wind speeds grounding aerial firefighting support during the critical early days, forcing reliance on ground efforts, which overwhelmed water resources, particularly in hilly areas where maintaining pressure was difficult. 

Midgley said this was not a case of being unprepared, but that the sheer scale and speed of recent fires overwhelmed firefighting efforts – which raises questions about urban planning and vegetation management in fire-prone areas.

Midgley emphasised that urban design must incorporate lessons learnt from past fires. For example, we know from both the UCT fire and the ongoing fires in LA that the presence of highly flammable palm trees in urban settings could be reconsidered as part of a broader strategy to reduce fire hazards.

A palm tree burns at a Presbyterian Church in the Pacific Palisades on 7 January 2025. (Photo: Jill Connelly / Bloomberg via Getty Images)


Global threat


Countries across the Mediterranean, including Italy, Spain, Greece, Tunisia and Turkey, as well as Australia, are all facing similar risks related to wildfires because of a warming and drying climate, with Midgley noting that “Mediterranean ecosystems are bearing the brunt”.

“Cities will have to adapt very quickly. The other big issue, of course, is insurance and the fact that many people’s houses were not insured because insurance companies are starting to withdraw insurance support.”

Private forecaster AccuWeather estimated the damage and economic loss at $135-billion to $150-billion, portending an arduous recovery and soaring homeowners’ insurance costs. DM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REeWvTRUpMk

 

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