Latest poll shows ANC’s rocky road to election, with coalition potholes ahead

5 Feb 2024

The results of a new poll compiled by Wits University Professor David Everatt, together with previous polling, suggest the ANC will do worse in this year’s elections than was previously predicted, but neither the DA nor the EFF appears to be attracting the voters lost by the governing party. Should the election results mirror those of the poll, the real test for political leaders will be the negotiations that follow.

The results of a new poll showing that the ANC would win the support of only 39% of registered voters, with the DA garnering 19% and the EFF 16%, reveal how scrambled our political picture is.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-02-04-dramatic-decline-in-electoral-support-of-anc-clear-from-new-national-poll/

The forthcoming elections may change our politics in a more dramatic way than previously predicted — the ANC is likely to lose its outright majority nationally and power could, conceivably, change hands in four provinces.

As Wits University Professor David Everatt notes, the situation in the provinces is even more complicated, with the ANC polling at only 35% in Gauteng and 26% in KwaZulu-Natal, while the DA has a possible problem, with — according to the poll — only 42% in the Western Cape supporting it.

The ANC could lose Ace Magashule’s old corruption ground, the Free State.

While political parties are likely to cast doubt on the accuracy of this poll and others (and utter the immortal phrase, “The only poll that matters is the election”), much can still change before voting day.

Politicians clearly believe that campaigning works, and they will spend much time, money and effort on this. In particular, this should provide the ANC with an advantage, simply because of its size and reach. Of the three biggest parties, the EFF may lose some ground here, because it is not able to match the geographic organisation and sheer reach of the other two bigger parties.

The unpredictability of this election means it’s difficult for political parties to enter into agreements now or even to comprehensively strategise.

The real action will occur in the hours and days after the elections. It is only then that offers will be made and deals negotiated.

The political leaders who manage this period most effectively will be in a very strong position after the elections, particularly if their parties can control the balance of power nationally, or in a province.

That said, the work done beforehand will still prove useful.

For example, based on the latest poll, it may be possible for the DA and the IFP to lead a government together in KZN. The fact they are cooperating in the Multi-Party Charter and already have a working agreement in that province would make this easier to do.

This alliance could affect other provinces too. If the DA becomes a partner of the IFP in KZN, it would be easy for the two parties to also work together in Gauteng. And, if the DA falls just short of a majority in the Western Cape, the IFP could play a small role there too.

A ‘grand coalition’

If this were to happen, smaller parties in the Multi-Party Charter would also be involved. The fact that the ACDP and the Freedom Front Plus have worked in coalitions with the DA and the IFP would make these negotiations easier.

It might be tempting for opposition parties to think this could be the beginning of a “grand coalition” that could govern in national government too.

However, the maths is against them, and the ANC still appears to be too strong — even if it wins only 39%, it would get coalition partners more easily than any other party.

However, if it did slide to, say, 42%, one of its best options may become unworkable.

As previously noted, one of the best options for the ANC, should it fall below 50%, would be to create a coalition of many smaller parties to get it well above the threshold. This would mean that no one political party and no single person would have the power to topple the coalition, allowing the ANC to stay in power while bullying the smaller parties and still retain a comfortable majority should any of them leave the coalition for whatever reason.

However, if the ANC falls to as low as 42%, this will be much more difficult, possibly pushing it into a less preferable option — a deal with a bigger party.

This would presumably be the DA or the EFF.

Over the last few months, there has been much speculation that the ANC’s “logical partner” would be the EFF. However, in areas where they do govern together, that road has been almost as potholed as the streets of Wolmaransstad.

It would render the ANC beholden to one person — Julius Malema, the only person who makes decisions for the EFF.

Working with the DA would also be extremely complicated. Even if that is the preferred option of the ANC Veterans’ League, many in the party would find it difficult to accept.

In short, one of the real risks for the ANC in this post-election period is that a debate about whether to work with the EFF or the DA splits the party into even smaller chunks.

What could tip the balance in favour of the EFF is that Malema cut his political teeth in the ANC and knows the ruling party inside out.

However, cooperating with the DA would allow the ANC to create what might well be the best-case scenario. This would involve the ANC working with the DA as part of a grand national coalition, which governs in the national government and all of the provinces.

The big attraction for the ANC is this option would make governance much easier. For those in the party who feel they must plan for the 2029 elections, drawing in a large number of parties in a grand coalition would make it harder for just the ANC to be blamed if the lives of most South Africans continue to deteriorate.

In a grand national coalition, no single party could be held solely responsible if things go even more pear-shaped.

This would be a very useful strategy for the ANC, which many voters hold responsible for many of the country’s problems.

There is one last point to be drawn from this poll and others.

They provide important evidence that our democracy is working and that voters will switch their political allegiance if their first-choice party fails to deliver.

How the ANC is being punished by voters now could be mirrored by the EFF or the DA being similarly punished by voters in the future.

What will happen in this year’s general election is still very much uncertain and all SA’s political parties will try their utmost to sway voters before they head to the ballots.

The latest poll shows how much work the political parties still need to do. DM

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A ‘grand coalition’