The Patriotic Alliance upended the DA in a diverse Johannesburg ward, while the uMkhonto Wesizwe party won a ward off the ANC in KwaDukuza, KwaZulu-Natal. The ANC made up for this loss by beating the IFP and MK in uPhongolo, northern KZN, to pick up an IFP seat.
There was some electoral stability in this round of by-elections, with the DA standing strong in a suburban ward in Johannesburg and the ANC entrenching its dominance in its Eastern Cape and Limpopo strongholds.
Gauteng
Ward 82 (Newclare Newlands) Johannesburg: PA 42% (15%) ACDP 20% (17%) DA 15% (24%) ANC 12% (16%) Al Jamah-ah 5% (1%) EFF 2% (3%) CCC 2% AIC 1% (1%) ARM <1% IDR <1%
The setting: Ward 82 is arguably the most competitive multi-competitor ward in all of Johannesburg. Five parties were in the running in 2021, with only 10% separating first and fifth place. The African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and GOOD performed best here in 2021. The ward is in the west of Johannesburg and includes Newclare, Newlands, Bosmont, Claremont and a small part of Westbury. The ward is diverse and home to a wide array of communities. Former world champion boxer Hekkie Budler hails from the hard streets of Newlands. Daily Maverick journalist Ferial Haffajee has written about growing up in Bosmont. Actor Amanda Manku was also raised here.
The 2021 local government election: The DA beat the ACDP by 614 votes. Only one percentage point separated second from third place, and also third from fourth and fourth from fifth. The DA won the ward by carrying the most populous voting district, the Danie van Zyl Recreational Centre in Newlands. While the DA was pushed hard by the ANC here, the ACDP and Patriotic Alliance (PA) were hampered by a relatively poor performance. The DA also won the Claremont Primary School district, which straddles Claremont and Newlands. While the ACDP was competitive here, the relatively poor showing by the PA and the ANC hurt their bid to wrest this once safe seat from the DA.
The four Newclare voting districts were split between three parties. The PA won half of the districts, edging the DA by a single percentage point at the Gereformeerde Kerk in Newclare. The ACDP was also in the running here. At Newclare Primary School, the PA beat the ACDP by 4%. The ACDP won the Dowling Avenue Primary School district, which includes a chunk of Westbury. The ACDP won 39% of the vote here, beating the PA by 13%. The ACDP’s margin of victory was key to its strong second-place finish.
The Newclare Masjid voting district, which includes Kathrada Park, is an ANC stronghold. It was also the least-competitive voting district in the election, with the party obtaining 61% of the vote and beating the EFF by 45%.
GOOD received 53% of the vote in Bosmont, and beat the DA by an impressive 34%. Turnout was also highest in Bosmont with close on 60% of registered voters turning out.
GOOD ended up fifth in the ward with a credible 14%. ActionSA was able to scythe out 7%, a reasonable return in such a contested electoral market. Its best showing was in Bosmont where it won 10%.
The 2024 provincial election: It was very competitive again in May 2024. The DA came first with 28% and the PA was second with 17%. The DA had almost lost half of its percentage support in the ward compared with 2019. The party lost voters to the PA, ACDP, GOOD and ActionSA.
The ANC finished third, also losing support – from 25% in 2019 to 16%. The PA, uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party and ActionSA stymied the ANC’s cause.
The ACDP came fourth with 12%, well up from 5% in 2019. The EFF was fifth with 6%, just ahead of ActionSA, also on 6%, and GOOD just behind on 5%.
The DA won three of the seven voting districts, including the two Newlands districts and Bosmont. The PA won three of the four Newclare districts, including the ACDP stronghold of Dowling Avenue Primary.
The ANC won easily again at Newclare Masjid, with MK making a dent in its Ward 82 fortress.
The by-election: The ward councillor died after a long illness. Ten parties threw their hats into the ring. Notable omissions were GOOD and ActionSA. The Cape Coloured Congress (CCC), which did well in Cape Town in 2024, ventured into Gauteng by-election terrain. Two candidates in the poll had to step away from their duties as presenters on local radio station Kofifi FM to contest the by-election.
The PA won the ward by 1,245 votes, well outperforming the DA on what it won the ward with in 2021 and 2024. The PA more than doubled its percentage support in the ward.
Ward 82 is diverse, factoring in race, gender and class metrics. The PA grew in every voting district. In Claremont, a district historically carried by the DA, the PA went from 19% to 44%, from place to first place. In Hekkie Budler’s Newlands, the PA went from 9% to 25% (fourth to second place), behind the DA. In Westbury, the PA beat the ACDP by jumping from second to first place. In the GOOD happy hunting ground of Bosmont, the PA went from 6% to 32% to finish first after finishing fourth in 2021. In Kathrada Park, the PA surged from 3% to 21%, moving from sixth to second place. Here the party was able to easily beat the EFF.
Newclare, where the PA performed best in 2021 and 2024, there was still room for impressive growth. It jumped from 26% to 61% in one district and 30% to 56% in the other. These results suggest that Newclare has shifted from a competitive district which leaned towards the PA to solid PA areas.
The ACDP beat the DA for second place by 236 votes. It grew from 24% to 29% in Claremont and remained the second-most-popular party as the DA fell from first to third place. The ACDP did lose the Westbury voting district to the PA, but its losses were less pronounced than the DA’s in its strongholds. It fell from 39% to 34% in Westbury. While the PA ballooned at Newclare Primary School, the ACDP was also able to grow by a single percentage point.
The DA fell from first to third place for a variety of reasons. In Claremont it dropped from 35% to 21%, relegating the party to the bronze medal in a once reliable district. It held onto the Newlands voting district, slightly down from its 36% return in 2021. The differential turnout in Newlands severely hurt the DA. Only 18% of Newlands turned up, with half of the turnout for Westbury.
Bosmont, the GOOD stronghold in 2021, was carried by the DA in 2024, which won 30% of the vote. It only managed 23% in the by-election, with GOOD voters breaking for the PA, Al Jamah-ah and the NCC. The DA also lost more than half of its support in the two Newclare voting districts. It was not even able to get into double percentage figures. There was only a 3% gap at the one Newclare voting district between the PA and the DA in 2024, and that gap grew to 50% in the by-election. A small consolation for the DA is that it held its 5% support in Kathrada Park.
The ANC declined in every voting district. It easily won Kathrada Park, but was still 2% down from 2021. The party will be satisfied that while it had a slight dip in support, the EFF’s support almost halved in Kathrada Park. The ANC would have hoped to win over some GOOD voters in Bosmont. This did not work out as the party fell from 8% to 3%. In Westbury, the ANC dropped from 6% to just 1%.
Al Jamah-ah was well ahead of the other five parties chasing it and the well-established parties in this ward. This was mainly due to its 20% in Bosmont and respective 5% and 6% in the two Newclare districts.
The win for the PA sees it move to double figures in seat allocation on the Johannesburg council. The DA drops a seat from 71 to 70. The PA is the only party to win new seats in by-elections in Johannesburg since 2021, having won one off the ANC in Ennerdale and now taking one off the DA in Newclare.
Poll: 27% (50%)
Ward 99 (Linden Blairgowrie) Johannesburg: DA 98% (75%) ANC 2% (5%)
The setting: Ward 99 is a suburban ward in the northwestern part of Johannesburg. It is associated with Randburg. It includes Linden, a part of the city that helped groom insurance titan Douw Steyn and Springboks Thinus Delport and Jean Kleyn. Linden is known for its restaurants and breakfast spots. It also includes Blairgowrie, which for many is the welcome to the green belt of Delta Park. Robindale is also part of Ward 99.
The 2021 local government election: The DA won three-quarters of the vote for a landslide victory on the ward ballot. ActionSA came second with 10% and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) pipped the ANC for bronze.
The DA did not fare as well on the proportional representation (PR) ballot, getting 8% less than its ward return to finish on 67%. ActionSA won 16% of the PR ballot vote. Across Johannesburg, ActionSA tended to do much better on the PR ballot than the ward ballot. FF+ was third on the PR ballot as well with 6%, one percentage point ahead of the ANC.
The 2024 provincial election: The DA won 71% of the vote in the ward in May 2024, 6% down from 2019. The ANC was runner-up with 7%, down 5% from 2019.
ActionSA came third with 4%, marginally ahead of Rise Mzansi on 4%. The EFF was also on 4%, matching its 2019 result.
The by-election: The ward councillor took up a vacancy in the provincial legislature. ActionSA and Rise Mzansi sat out this by-election.
The DA performed a suburban suplex on the ANC to beat them by 3,424 votes in this by-election. The DA did best in Robindale where it won 99% of the vote. The party will hope that the voters in this ward come out in greater numbers in 2026.
Poll: 24% (57%)
KwaZulu-Natal
Ward 28 (Shaka’s Kraal) KwaDukuza, iLembe: MK 62% ANC 35% (78%) IFP 2% (2%) EFF 1% (6%)
The setting: Shaka’s Kraal is off the R102 regional road which links uMhlanga with Groutville. It sits above Salt Rock and Sheffield Manor. KwaDukuza includes Ballito and Stanger. The seat of the district is also KwaDukuza.
The iLembe district is just north of eThekwini. It includes the municipalities of Mandeni and Maphumulo.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC was out in front, winning almost 80% of the vote. The race for second was more interesting as three parties obtained 6%. The DA beat the EFF by one vote while the latter beat ActionSA by one vote. The IFP barely featured.
The ANC lost its outright majority in KwaDukuza, losing seven seats to take 29 of the 59 available seats. The DA too lost ground, falling from 11 seats to nine. Two new parties – ActionSA and the regional Independent Alliance – impressed to win five seats each. The EFF doubled its seat allocation to four, tied with the IFP. Three other parties won a single seat.
The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC held off MK here with its 42% return. MK ran it close with 35% of the vote. The DA came third in the ward with 17%, with the IFP just ahead of the EFF with 2% each.
The ANC was hurt here by MK and the DA. MK pipped the ANC at the Shaka’s Kraal Primary School district by 47% to 42%. At the North Coast Agricultural College district the ANC won 42%, with MK lagging behind on 29%. The DA secured 23%.
MK was the most popular party in the KwaDukuza Municipality with 45%. The DA was slightly ahead of the ANC, as both ended on 22%. The DA matched its 2019 return, while the ANC plummeted from 60%. The IFP was slightly down on 5% but did finish ahead of the EFF which dropped from 8% to 2%.
The by-election: Veteran ward councillor Doeishee Govender defected from the ANC to MK. He aimed to win the seat for the third consecutive time. The DA and ActionSA opted to miss the by-election.
It was a three-peat for Govender as MK routed the ANC, beating it by 598 votes. MK won both voting districts. Its best showing was at the North Coast Agricultural College (65%). This is the district where MK battled in 2024, winning only 29%. The ANC fell from 76% in 2021 to 33%.
The IFP beat the EFF to third place as the latter’s support collapsed in the ward. This was MK’s first KwaZulu-Natal by-election win in a ward in which it was not the biggest party in 2024, making it an important milestone victory. MK has now won two wards off the ANC in less than a month in KwaZulu-Natal, following a win in Richmond a few weeks ago.
New KwaDukuza Seat Allocation: ANC 28 (29) DA 9 Action SA 5 Independent Alliance 5 EFF 4 IFP 4 MK 1 (0) AIC 1 ATM 1 ACDP 1. Total: 59. The ANC’s grip on KwaDukuza is even more tenuous. It will need to continue to engage with smaller parties to ensure it keeps the mayoral chain.
Poll: 60% (52%)
Ward 12 (Highlands) uPhongolo, Zululand: ANC 40% (29% PR) MK 31% IFP 27% (36% PR) EFF 1% (12% PR) NAPF 1% (<1% PR)
The setting: Ward 12 is on the Eswatini border. Most voters live in the village of Highlands. The ward sits next to the N2 national road linking Pongola and eMkhondo in Mpumalanga. The seat of uPhongolo is Pongola. The municipality is known for its citrus and sugar cane farming and the Pongola Dam.
The 2021 local government elections: The IFP beat the ANC by 236 votes on the proportional representation (PR) ballot. They achieved this by winning two of the four voting districts, including Manyandeni School, the second-most-populous district. The IFP won 64% in this district and built up a buffer of 209 votes against the ANC. The IFP won more than 90% in the least-populous district, Nyawoshane Primary School where the gap between the IFP and the ANC was 192 votes. The IFP was the only party to get into double figures in this district as the ANC only received nine votes.
The ANC won the most-populous voting district, Sigqamise School in Highlands, where it received 195 more votes than the IFP. The IFP finished behind the EFF for third place in this district. One of the things that hurt the ANC was that the relative voter turnout at Sigqamise School was lower than in the districts carried by the IFP.
The National Freedom Party (NFP) beat the IFP by 26 votes in the Mkhunjini Primary School district. The ANC finished behind the DA here and 27 votes behind the IFP. The NFP finished third on the PR ballot with 17% of the vote.
The IFP beat the ANC by 153 votes on the ward ballot. The NFP finished in a credible third place and the EFF edged an independent candidate for fourth place. The independent candidate won 9% of the vote, and hurt both the IFP and the ANC. This is why the PR ballot is a better mode of comparison for the by-election, since the independent is not a contender in the by-election.
The IFP won 15 of the 29 seats in the council and the ANC 10. The NFP was third with two. The DA and EFF sent one councillor each to the council chambers.
The 2024 provincial elections: uMkhonto WeSizwe (MK) was the most popular party in the ward, winning just under 50% of the vote. The IFP came second with 25% and the ANC third on 13%. The NFP won 7% of the vote. The EFF finished in 6th place, behind the DA with only one percent.
MK won half of the voting districts, which also happened to be the two most-vote-rich districts. The IFP and NFP won a single district each.
MK was the most popular party in the municipality with 42% of the vote. The IFP came second with 32% and the ANC third on 17%. The EFF finished sixth on 1%, behind the DA and the NFP.
The by-election: The ward councillor died. The IFP, ANC and MK were joined by the EFF and National People’s Front (NAPF), a breakaway party from the NFP.
The ANC, the least-fancied contender in the uPhongolo derby, prevailed, beating MK by just more than 200 votes. It was able to attract a great deal of former NFP and EFF voters. Mkhunjini Primary School was key for the ANC. This voting district was carried by the NFP in 2021. Here the ANC jumped from 19% to 42%. The NFP carried the district in 2021. The ANC beat the MK here by 26 votes.
The ANC carried the Sigqamise High School district in the Itshelejuba part of Highlands by 267 votes. It grew from 45% to 53%, with the EFF’s vote share collapsing from 20% to less than 1%. MK was second with 32%.
The IFP carried the Manyandeni School district again but fell from 64% to 49%. MK came second with 28%. The ANC did grow here, from 12% to 18%. Former NFP voters in this ward mainly broke for MK, although some found their way to the ANC. The IFP lost much support in its Nyawoshane Primary stronghold, falling from 93% to 61%. As per all the voting districts, MK came second again, this time with 28%. The ANC activists here did their bit for the collective effort by growing the party’s vote from 4% to 11%.
The IFP has now lost its outright majority, falling from 15 seats to 14 in the 29-seat council. The ANC grew from 10 seats to 11. The NFP has two seats and the DA and EFF one seat each. The IFP will call on the DA to work with it to hold onto the mayoral chain and the speaker’s gavel.
Poll: 53% (52%)
Limpopo
Ward 9 (Louis Trichardt Matshavhawe): ANC 66% (55%) DA 30% (31%) MK 4% APC < 1% (<1%)
The setting: Most of the voters in the ward live in the eastern part of Louis Trichardt, the seat of power in Makhado. There is also a large chunk of voters in Matshavhawe, a village east of Louis Trichardt, in the direction of Thohoyandou. There are a few other rural voting districts, but they are sparsely populated.
Louis Trichardt is the gateway to the Soutpansberg. It is known for its tropical fruit and nut farming. The artist Jackson Hlungwani and performer Sho Madjozi hail from this municipality.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the DA by 568 votes. The ANC won four of the five voting districts. The village of Matshavhawe put the contest beyond doubt as the ANC won more than 80% in the second-most-vote-rich district, prevailing by 372 votes.
The DA bested the ANC by 132 votes at the Louis Trichardt Showground voting district, which has just under half of the ward’s voters. The FF+ came third in the ward with 8% and the EFF fourth with 3%.
Read more: By-elections hub
The ANC enjoyed one of its best municipal results here in 2021, growing from 56 seats to 62 in the 75-seat council. The DA and the EFF lost seats to the ANC, with the DA falling from nine to five and the EFF from seven to four. Four other parties won a single seat on the council.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 60% of the vote here. The DA trailed well behind in second place with 19%. The EFF was just ahead of the FF+ with 6% each.
The ANC won 85% in Makhado, reinforcing the municipality’s status as one of the national highpoints of ANC support. The party was 1% down from 2019. The EFF came second with 6%, a single percent up from 2019. The DA was third with 5%, the same result as 2019. MK finished seventh with 1%.
MK finished in seventh place with 0.34% of the vote, behind the FF+ and two other parties.
The by-election: The ward councillor died after a short illness. The ANC had another big win in the Vhembe region. It was able to grow its vote share by an impressive 11%. There was a significant turnout differential between Matshavhawe and Louis Trichardt of 42%. In 2021, it was 15%. This was a contributing factor to the ANCs growth and the DA’s flat performance. 63% of Matshavhawe’s voters turned out, with the ANC winning 81% of the vote there, while only 21% of Louis Trichardt voters showed up. The ANC was able to grow from 32% to 42% in Louis Trichardt, with the DA edging up as well, from 48% to 51%.
Poll: 37% (45%)
Eastern Cape
Ward 13 (Ngceza Tsojana) Intsika Yethu, Chris Hani: ANC 83% (79%) ACT 9% EFF 6% (11%) UDM 2% (3%)
The setting: This is a rural ward with numerous sparsely populated villages. It is north of the R61 regional road which links Cofimvaba with eNcgobo. It is east of Cofimvaba and north of Tsomo. Each voting district has a few hundred registered voters. The villages of Ngceza, Tsojana and Emawusheni have the most voters in the ward.
Intsika Yethu is an ANC heartland. Its principal towns are Cofimvaba and Tsomo. Trade unionist Vuyisile Mini and Albertina Sisulu hail from this municipality. It forms part of the Chris Hani District which includes the towns of Komani, eNgcobo and Xuba (formerly Cradock).
The 2021 local government election: The ANC came close to the 80% mark with a dominant performance. The EFF was the only other party to get into double figures. The African Transformation Movement (ATM) was third with 5%.
The ANC won 35 of the 42 seats and lost none. The EFF grew from three to four seats to consolidate its status as the official opposition. The UDM fell from two seats to one, while the DA and PAC won a single seat each.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC all but mirrored its 2021 showing with 78% of the vote. It was, however, 6% down from 2019. The EFF also declined, from 9% to 8%. Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT) came third with 5%. The UDM was fourth with 3%, up by a percentage point from 2019.
The by-election: The ward councillor died. The ANC breached the 80% mark for an emphatic victory in Intsika Yethu, winning more than 80% of the vote in seven of the 11 voting districts. Its best return was 97% at the Mkwinti School, a rural voting district.
ACT surprised the EFF to finish second. It beat the EFF By 59 votes and was able to get into double percentage figures in three of the 11 districts. The EFF’s percentage support in the ward almost halved.
Poll: 42% (45%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 16 April when the DA will defend a very competitive ward in eThekwini. It will have to fend off MK, the ANC and an independent candidate. The FF+ will tackle the DA in Randfontein, Rand West City, Gauteng. DM