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Less is more this December as consumers tighten the festive season purse strings

Less is more this December as consumers tighten the festive season purse strings
There has never been a more emotional time of year for shopping than the festive season, but the latest NielsenIQ Consumer Insights global study Unwrapping the Holiday Outlook reveals that economic constraints may hobble festive spending this year.

“Consumers are determined to spoil themselves and their loved ones, but are also grappling with making the most of tight budgets. Most have adopted tactics such as shopping early and taking advantage of special offers,” says NielsenIQ managing director Ged Nooy.

Nooy notes that last year, a quarter of all rands spent were on promotions during the peak festive season shopping week ending 26 December.

“Significantly, this is 3 percentage points lower than the average for the previous year, and a whopping half of that seen on Black Friday week in the previous month of November 2021. This suggests that retailers and manufacturers pulled back significantly due to their investments in Black Friday,” he says.

The latest NielsenIQ State of the Retail Nation review, which reflects data measured over the four weeks to the end of October 2022, shows that certain long-forgotten consumer behaviours, such as shopping around at different retailers, have started to resume as Covid fears retreat. 

These include more frequent shopping trips and bigger baskets. Shoppers have increased the number of products they purchase per shopping trip as the interval between trips has become longer. NielsenIQ data show that, in some instances, consumers have upsized to buy in bulk, downsized or exited a product category completely due to budget constraints. 

The rise of convenience continues, but not only in the form of rapid delivery and quick e-commerce options. Locality is increasingly important, with independent retailers that have a large footprint and a decentralised offering seeing a significant increase in feet through the door versus the usual superstores.




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In addition to these re-emerging trends, the ongoing effects of inflation are clearly indicated by an increase in the value per buyer in recent months outpacing the number of units they purchase. In simple terms, consumers are paying more and getting less for that spend. 

The latest FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index recovered from -20 to -8 index points during the fourth quarter of 2022, regaining all the ground lost during the first half of 2022 to reach the same (relatively weak) level recorded during the 2021 festive season.

FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya says an uptick in employment growth, particularly in the now fast-recovering services sector, and substantially lower petrol prices since the third quarter have bolstered consumer sentiment in the run-up to the festive season. 

“Nevertheless, given the backdrop of sustained high inflation, rapidly rising interest rates, frequent load shedding and the generally bleak outlook for global economic growth, the 12-point rebound in consumer confidence surprised on the upside, pointing to a level of resilience among SA consumers.”

The rebound in consumer sentiment shows an improved willingness to spend among consumers relative to the second and third quarters of 2022, but consumers’ ability to spend (ie, real disposable income and access to credit) would also need to improve in order to translate into a significant increase in household consumption. In this regard, further sharp interest rate hikes and sustained high food inflation would have muted some of the positive impacts of higher employment growth and lower fuel prices during the fourth quarter.

Matikinca-Ngwenya says the significant improvement in consumer sentiment is positive news for the economy and suggests that household consumption expenditure is holding up — or even expanding slightly — despite difficult economic conditions. 

“However, this time around, it seems likely that the services sector, particularly restaurants, transport, recreation and tourism-related services, will be the main beneficiary, with the retail sector expected to underperform relative to the 2021 festive season,” she adds. DM/BM