Level 3 – a slightly less terrible option

The Sunday night announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa that we will be moving to Level 3 of the lockdown regulations from 1 June reveals much about what is going on in our politics and the power brokers’ top echelons. It also shows how close to impossible governance in a democracy during a pandemic such as this is. 

Ramaphosa’s announcement was widely expected, and gave some important details about what will happen next. But much still needs to be fleshed out before the publication of the specific regulations.

In Level 4 and Level 5 all activities were prohibited, with a few exceptions. Unless something was on a list, you could not do it.

Under this new level, it appears that things are going the other way. All activities are allowed, unless explicitly listed as prohibited on the list.

This is a crucial shift, because it moves the onus of prohibiting actions on to government. The onus is no longer on individuals or groups to argue their case the other way. 

Under Level 3, life will certainly resume a semblance of the “normality” we once knew, in that most of our rights are returned to us (even though, legally, they could never have been removed).

It would be simple at this point to state that there are “winners” and “losers” in these decisions, and that this suggests there is a power struggle in Cabinet.

Of course, it is nowhere near as simple as that, although there are some Cabinet ministers who appear to have emerged from this with their power much diminished.

The first is certainly Police Minister Bheki Cele. He has continued to argue, forcefully, for the ban on alcohol to continue. To listen to him would be to believe that alcohol, and only alcohol, is responsible for almost all violence and most of the casualties in our hospitals. While the link between violence and alcohol is well-established (and proven every weekend night) Cele refused to acknowledge that car accidents became almost non-existent during the lockdown, because people were not travelling on the roads.

Also, his view did not take into account that people would make illegal alcohol anyway. There have been several instances of desperate drinkers dying from imbibing their home-brewed alcohol. If this ban had continued for much longer, those cases would only increase, and so would the load on hospitals.

Now, the ban has been removed and Cele may feel that the rug under him is not as immovable as it once was.

Just because the government issues an order, that does not mean it will be obeyed. And society’s buy-in needs to be taken into account, otherwise the law of unintended consequences takes over.