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Brutal truth — study paints grim picture for young South Africans after school

30 Mar 2025

The stagnant economy simply cannot absorb the number of matriculants looking for jobs.

At the dawn of democracy in 1994, South Africa faced a sobering reality. Fewer than a third of 25- to 34-year-olds had achieved at least a matric (12 years of schooling completed) or equivalent qualification.

Thirty years on, the proportion of individuals in this age group who had completed their schooling had almost doubled to 57%.

This figure will be bolstered further by the record-breaking results in the National Senior Certificate (matric) examinations in recent years. South Africa’s school completion rates are now high and comparable with other middle-income countries.

But this good news is tempered by very high youth unemployment and a faltering economy. What are the prospects for young South Africans once they’ve matriculated?

I have aimed to answer this question in my new study. By using the Quarterly Labour Force Survey – a nationally representative, household-based sample survey – and other data sources, I have developed six insights that tell us what the post-matric landscape is like today.

For the purposes of the study, I defined recent matriculants as 15- to 24-year-olds with 12 years of completed schooling.

This study highlights how increasingly larger proportions of recent matriculants find they have limited opportunities. The rising number of young people leaving school with a matric, especially in recent years, is not being met with enough opportunities beyond school, whether in work or in post-school education and training.

Conditions in South Africa’s labour market must improve and further expansion in quality post-school education and training is required for the country to realise the benefits of rising educational attainment and progress for national development.

Less chance of employment

The truth is brutal: 10 years ago, finding a job was easier for matriculants than it will be for the matric class who finished school in 2024. Between 2014 and 2018, about four of every 10 recent matriculants who were economically active (including discouraged jobseekers) were employed. By the start of 2024 this figure was closer to three of every 10.

The likelihood of young people with a matric having a job at the start of 2024 roughly resembled the chances of those without a matric having a job eight to 10 years ago.

With more pupils progressing to matric, especially because of more lenient progression policy during and just after the Covid-19 pandemic, changes in the composition of the matric group could be driving some of the declines in this group’s employment prospects. But there has been a deterioration in the labour market for all young people over the past decade. Employment prospects have even declined for those with a post-school qualification.

Not in employment, education or training

Proportionally fewer recent matriculants are going on to work or further study. Before the Covid-19 pandemic (2014 to 2019), about 44% to 45% of recent matriculants were classified as “not in employment, education or training” (Neet). The Neet rate among recent matriculants peaked at 55% in early 2022 and remained high at 49.8% at the start of 2024.

Stated differently, one of every two recent matriculants was not engaged in work or studies in the first quarter of 2024. That’s 1.78 million individuals. Coupled with the rising numbers of young people obtaining a matric, this implies that the number of recent matriculants who were not working or studying rose by half a million from the start of 2015 to the start of 2024.

Among all 15- to 24-year-olds, the Neet rate rose from 32% in the first quarter of 2014 to 35% in the first quarter of 2024. Even larger increases in the Neet rate occurred among 25- to 34-year-olds – from 45% to 52% over the same period.

This is a worry, but it doesn’t mean the matric qualification has no value.

A matric qualification still provides an advantage

In early 2024, nearly half of matriculants aged 15 to 24 were classified Neet. Almost eight out of 10 of their peers who had dropped out of school were Neet.

In short, you’re still more likely to get a job or further your studies with a matric certificate than without one.

A hard road

The road to opportunity beyond school is harder than it was a decade ago. Among Neet matriculants aged 15 to 24 at the start of 2014, 27% searched for work for more than a year. By early 2024, this figure had risen to 32%.

It’s even worse for 25- to 34-year-olds who hold a matric qualification and have the status of Neet. The percentage searching for work for more than a year rose from 37% at the start of 2014 to 50% in early 2024.

The longer young people remain disconnected from employment, education or training, the greater the toll on their mental health. Neet status is associated with worse mental health, particularly among young men.

Post-school education and training

The government has made ambitious plans to expand opportunities for young people to study further. But enrolments in post-school education and training are not growing sufficiently to match the rising tide in school completion or absorb the young people who cannot find jobs.

And, with projected declines in real per-student spending on post-school education as South Africa tries to address escalating national debt servicing costs, this situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon.

The country is not keeping pace with tertiary enrolment rates in other developing nations like Brazil, Indonesia or China. For instance, 2021 estimates from the World Bank identify South Africa’s tertiary enrolment rate at 25%, compared with 41% in Indonesia, 57% in Brazil and 67% in China.

Location matters

Where someone lives in South Africa influences their chances for upward mobility. These inequalities are reflected in varying youth Neet rates across provinces.

For instance, a third of recent matriculants in the Western Cape were not in employment, education or training in 2023/24. This figure more than doubles in North West to 67%.

How to help

Two things are needed: improving labour market conditions and expanding post-school education and training opportunities. However, this is unlikely without improved economic growth.

This may all sound hopeless, but there are things that ordinary South Africans can do:

Keep encouraging young people in your orbit to complete their schooling;

Where possible, spur them on to obtain a post-school qualification; and

Use your social networks to connect youth to work experience opportunities and help with CVs, referral letters and references.

Young people must also adopt a practical, pragmatic and entrepreneurial mindset. They need to seize every opportunity available to them, whether in the labour market or post-school education. DM

First published by The Conversation.

Gabrielle Wills is a senior researcher at Research on Socio-Economic Policy in the Economics Faculty at Stellenbosch University.

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.

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