DA retains Mangaung ward with solid win, PA snatches votes from ANC in surge to second place

30 Nov 2023

The DA retained a ward in Mangaung to win the last Free State by-election of the year and the second-last metro by-election of 2023. The Patriotic Alliance took votes from the ANC, the DA and the EFF to finish runner-up in this diverse ward in the eastern part of Bloemfontein.

Ward 47 (Bram Fischer Airport Heidedal) in Mangaung: DA (44%) ANC (25%) PA (11%) EFF (10%) AASD (1%)

The setting: This is a large, expansive ward which includes Bram Fischer Airport. It is on the eastern side of Bloemfontein which encompasses the industrial area of Oos Einde. It includes the Patriotic Alliance (PA) stronghold of Heidedal. Other districts include the traditional ANC voting districts of Grassland and a part of Bloemside. It also includes traditional DA districts in suburbs and plot sections such as Roodewal.

The 2021 local government elections: The DA beat the ANC by 789 votes in the ward. It was a relatively wide margin in a traditionally competitive ward. The DA ran up the numbers in Roodewal, Estoire, Noordhoek, Raceway Park and Olive Hill. The ANC’s best showing was in the Bloemside part of the ward. It also beat the DA by a margin of more than 2:1 in the Grasslands area next to Heideldal. The PA beat the DA by 99 votes in Heidedal. This win helped it pip the EFF for third place. The EFF’s best returns were in Grasslands and the plot area of Linquinda. The Freedom Front Plus came fifth in the ward with 6%.

The ANC lost seven seats in Mangaung but retained its outright majority in the only metro in the Free State. The party won 51 of the 101 seats in the council. The DA lost one seat but remained the second-largest party in Mangaung with 26 seats. The EFF took seats from the ANC as it grew from nine to 12. The FF+ increased its seat total from two to five. The PA and a local party, the Afrikan Alliance of Social Democrats (AASD), won two seats each. Three other parties obtained one seat each.

The by-election: The two-term DA ward councillor joined DA MP Nomsa Marchesi in defecting to Rise Mzansi. The previous ward councillor decided to not contest the by-election in her new party colours. The DA, ANC, PA and EFF were joined by the AASD on the ballot. The AASD fielded former Mangaung mayor and their party leader, Papi Mokoena, as its candidate.

The DA retained its seat by a wider percentage margin compared with the recent elections in this ward. This was built on the back of a near shutout win in Roodewal where the party won 91% of the vote. In 2021, the DA won 71% and the FF+ 11%. The margin of victory was wider here than any other voting station. The DA won 93% of the vote in Estoire, where it also outperformed the combined DA and FF+ total from 2021.

Read more in Daily Maverick: ANC crushes opposition in KZN with resounding Imbali victory, EFF and IFP trail with middling results

The PA surged to a solid second-place finish. Its growth in the ward was centred on Heidedal. It grew from 43% to 69%. Most of the gains here were at the expense of the ANC. The ANC declined from 17% to 6% in Heidedal, with the DA shrinking from 31% to 24%. In the ANC stronghold of Bloemside, the PA went from 11% to 26%, taking small slices of support from the ANC, DA and EFF.

The turnout was low in Grassland. Only 16% of voters turned up on election day. Here the ANC lost ground as it moved from 48% to 35%, with the PA the main beneficiary as it ballooned from 5% to 20%. The DA and EFF also made small gains in Grassland to still finish second and third in this district.

The ANC will take some comfort from winning the Acarta Phase 3 voting district. It has very few voters, but it is a brand-new part of the metro. The ANC pipped the EFF by five votes to finish first.

Poll: 30% (48%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 6 December when the ANC defends three seats, with a by-election in KwaZulu-Natal and the final by-elections of the year in the Western Cape and North West. DM

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Ward 47 (Bram Fischer Airport Heidedal) in Mangaung: DA (44%) ANC (25%) PA (11%) EFF (10%) AASD (1%)