Masisi’s shock defeat in Botswana heralds big changes, difficult turnaround

Botswanan President and presidential candidate for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) Mokgweetsi Masisi (right), arrives for his party's final campaign rally in Gaborone, on 29 October 2024, ahead of Botswana’s general election. (Photo: Phill Magakoe / AFP)

By Anthony Carroll

3 Nov 2024

Botswana has a new boss in President Duma Boko after an election victory over a party that has been in power since independence 58 years ago. A lot is set to change, including the country’s relations with South Africa and Zimbabwe.

Botswana held its national election on 30 October and then president Mokgweetsi Eric Masisi and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) were soundly beaten.

The BDP has been the ruling party of Botswana since its independence in 1966. One could argue that despite its reputation of being an open and democratic society, the country would not mature into a fully-fledged democracy until a national election resulted in an opposition party prevailing.

masisi shock botswana changes Umbrella for Democratic Change supporters in Gaborone cheer victory in the early hours on 1 November 2024. (Photo: Monirul Bhuiyan / AFP)

So bad was the BDP loss that it retained only four of 61 parliamentary seats. Historically, the BDP was able to prevail because the opposition was weak and divided. But not this time as it came in fourth place out of four registered parties following division within the BDP itself. To his credit, former president Masisi offered a gracious concession speech.

Read more: Diamond market dip spurs seismic political shift in Botswana as voters punish ‘aloof’ long-time leaders

Economic failure

There are numerous reasons for this shocking defeat. Foremost was the economy where unemployment among youth is estimated at 45%.

Certainly, the fall in diamond prices is partially attributable but Masisi’s pledges to diversify the economy had failed.

There was also Masisi’s imperious and divisive leadership. He made a serious mistake in attacking his predecessor Ian Khama by issuing an arrest warrant, causing Khama to go into exile until just before the election. By attacking Khama he also alienated the Bamangwato tribe to which Khama was the paramount chief and home to important BDP constituencies.

There were deep suspicions that the Masisi administration was corrupt. Many land and mining deals were opaque and alleged to favour Masisi personally as well as his close associates.

masisi shock botswana changes Defeated former Botswanan president and presidential candidate for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) Mokgweetsi Masisi (right), arrives for his party’s final campaign rally in Gaborone, on 29 October 2024. (Photo: Phill Magakoe / AFP)

On top of that, Masisi entered a concerning relationship with a startup diamond dealer, HB Antwerp, that will secure diamonds from the state-owned entity and as such is in competition with De Beers for the supply of Botswana diamonds – killing the goose that laid the gold egg. The amount of money that the government of Botswana wants to invest in HB Antwerp in exchange for equity for a start-up with no record is $65-million.

The BDP issued a post-election statement that it will pursue all evidence of corruption and the money, including the HB Antwerp transaction.

Boko’s agenda?

It may be too early to define what President Boko will prioritise and who he will appoint to his Cabinet. Although as president he can select six additional members of parliament, his Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) party will maintain a slim majority and may have to work with the other two leading opposition parties. His appointment of Ndaba Gaolathe as Minister of Finance is a positive step to restore fiscal discipline.

Two things are certain: Botswana’s relations with South Africa will change, but in opposite directions. It was well known that presidents Ramaphosa and Masisi had a frosty relationship. The South African first lady and her Motsepe family have historic ties to the Khama family and while in exile Ian Khama maintained an office in Sandton.

This tension started after Masisi came into office and directed his government to hire a private prosecutor to track $48-million of Botswana government funds allegedly laundered in South Africa. Relations never recovered and were thinly masked whenever the two presidents shared the stage.

Read more: Botswana takes flak over its ‘persecution’ of former president Ian Khama

Conversely, relations with Zimbabwe are likely to worsen. Masisi had become the spokesman for removing sanctions against Zimbabwe, often angering the US government and Congress. Just before the election, Batswana protested at the Zimbabwe embassy alleging that the BDP would import voters from Zimbabwe and thereby fraudulently stuff ballot boxes.

While Botswana has turned the corner toward a mature democracy, its problems will not disappear.

While showing some signs of life, many believe that the natural diamond business may never recover to the record levels it attained during the Covid pandemic.

A record drought has claimed the agricultural and livestock industries. And, for the first time, Botswana has accumulated record debt levels with the IMF and World Bank and its 2025 GDP growth forecast is barely positive.

Finally, Botswana has been unable to diversify its economy despite having a credible record of economic governance, universal free education and healthcare and an enviable infrastructure, while national confidence in governance has been eroded. It will be a turnaround job that may last years. DM

Anthony Carroll is a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC.

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Economic failure

Boko’s agenda?