South Africa

South Africa, Maverick News

Education experts weigh in: Matric results show promise but raise critical questions for future

Siviwe Gwarube (Minister of Basic Education) with top acheivers at the Ministerial Breakfast With Top Achievers at MTN Innovation Centre on January 13, 2025 in Johannesburg, South Africa. The congratulatory breakfast honours the country's top academic achievers. (Photo: Gallo Images / Luba Lesolle)

By Takudzwa Pongweni

14 Jan 2025

While many education experts acknowledge the improvements in the national pass rate, they caution that the figures might not fully reflect the reality of the education system.

The matric class of 2024 achieved an 87.3% pass rate, surpassing the 82.9% recorded in 2023, which Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube said “should be a moment of great pride”.

However, Professor Suraiya Naicker, head of the department of education leadership and management in the education faculty at the University of Johannesburg, expressed surprise and cautious optimism about the results.

Naicker pointed out the unknowns, such as the type of effort pupils put in between their preliminary and final exams, or the quality of the papers.

“My first impression was that I was surprised that we went up, but I have to give credit to the class for doing that,” she said, acknowledging the pupils’ hard work.

Michael le Cordeur, emeritus professor in education at Stellenbosch University, said he had anticipated a pass rate of about 85%. He believed the education system was stabilising at about 84% or 85%, and he did not foresee a decrease.

“The pass rate of 87% is more than I expected, quite frankly. I thought it was very high, and I would like to study the results more in depth to see exactly why. I cannot see from an education point of view what we have done differently, so much different than in the past. However, I think it’s good for the country, and it’s a positive for the country that our education system is stabilising and our matrics are doing as well as they did,” he said.

Professor Nadine Petersen, the executive dean of the Faculty of Education at the University of Johannesburg, said she was pleasantly surprised by the results, saying an improvement had been expected, since the education system had been on an upward trajectory. While many teachers had anticipated a modest increase, of about 83% or 84%, they did not want to be overly optimistic, given the specific challenges faced by this cohort as they progressed through high school.

“It was a very great surprise, but a pleasant one, to see the 4.4% increase, particularly because most education critics hold up the IEB exams, which deals with a fraction of the country’s learners, against this DBE mammoth of over 800000 learners. It’s nice to compare, but you’re not comparing apples with apples, so it was very good to see how well our kids did,” she said.

Asked about the improvement in the matric results, education expert Mary Metcalfe emphasised the importance of monitoring and data collection. She stressed that it is essential to have clear, demonstrable links between actions taken and improvements in pupil performance.

“I think that is one of the key challenges for each of the provinces, to develop a proper theory of change based on monitoring information. If you don’t have proper monitoring of what actions you’re taking that are demonstrably linked to improved performance, then you won’t be able to use that diagnostic to improve the system,” she said.

Metcalfe also pointed out that without clear data and explanations, speculation becomes inevitable. “If the department doesn’t provide that, and if each of the provinces don’t provide that, then we can only have conjecture.”

Debunking the 30% pass myth

On Monday, Deputy Minister of Basic Education Reginah Mhaule cautioned against spreading misleading information about the NSC pass requirements, and slammed detractors in the matter of the 30% pass rate.

“In a nutshell, all that needs to be said is that the 30% which people are singing, and it became a nice song, and some are even joining the song without understanding the notes, is not a pass mark in this country and it has never been and will never be,” she said.

Mhaule said any candidate who achieves an aggregate of 30% in all subjects would be regarded as having failed.

“There is no way about it. It’s just as it is. There are myths, fallacies and misinformation that get carried year after year, almost by the same people on this matter,” she said.

Mhaule outlined the admission requirements for bachelor studies, saying a candidate must obtain 40% in their home language, 50% in four other subjects (excluding life orientation), 30% in the language of learning and teaching, and 30% in one additional subject. Additionally, the candidate must pass at least six of the seven subjects.

For admission to diploma studies, a candidate must obtain at least 40% in their home language and at least 40% in three other subjects, excluding life orientation. A minimum of 30% is required in the language of learning and teaching at the higher education institution. The candidate must also pass at least six of the seven subjects.

To achieve a higher certificate pass a pupil must obtain at least 40% in their home language, at least 40% in three other subjects (excluding life orientation) and a minimum of 30% in the language of learning and teaching at the higher education institution. Additionally, they must achieve at least 30% in one other subject and pass at least six of the seven subjects taken.

To achieve an NSC pass a candidate must obtain at least 40% in their home language and at least 40% in two other subjects. They may fail one subject, including the first additional language, but must achieve a minimum of 30% in the remaining six, ensuring a total of six passes. If the pupil has an average of 33⅓% or higher, they will be awarded the NSC. However, while this pass certifies completion of high school, it does not qualify the pupil for further education.

matric Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube at the official release of the National Senior Certificate exam results in in Fairland, Johannesburg, on 13 January 2025. (Photo: Gallo Images / Luba Lesolle)

Every year, the 30% pass threshold for the NSC results generates heated discussions. Metcalfe was clear that the 30% figure is often misunderstood.

“Anybody who thinks that the class, that the NSC result is made up of 30% passes, is not understanding how the NSC pass works,” she said.

“The number of learners who passed with only a National Senior Certificate is only 121. So, only 0.17% of learners passed with that.”

Metcalfe expressed frustration that this nuance is often ignored in public debates.

Peterson emphasised that not everyone is aiming for a bachelor’s pass. In any given classroom there was a broad spectrum of pupils. Some would meet the bare minimum, while others performed above average and some would excel.

“Let’s stop pretending every child is the same and every child has to achieve at the same level,” she said.

Peterson raised the critical question of whether schools are equipping pupils with the necessary 21st-century skills and transversal competencies that will enable them to thrive in the world of work.

Laying the foundations

Announcing the results on Monday, Gwarube highlighted that the department’s strategy to reorient the basic education sector towards foundational learning would play a key role in strengthening the schooling system.

“By prioritising foundational literacy and numeracy in the early years, we will lay the groundwork for stronger performance in grades 4, 10 and 12, resulting in system-wide improvements,” she said.

Le Cordeur said he was very positive about the Bela Act which makes Grade R compulsory.

“Grade R has been long overdue and I think it’s a very good thing that we are moving towards that, because I feel it will have a very positive effect on our education system. Research has shown that kids who have been in Grade R, they take to the curriculum in Grade 1 much easier, they are progressing faster, and they start to read with comprehension much sooner than all the others,” he said.

Naicker stressed the importance of strengthening education from the foundational level to address the gaps in numeracy and literacy that contribute to later struggles with more advanced subjects. She emphasised that it is futile to try to “catch up” with pupils in grades 8 or 9 who have not fully grasped the fundamental concepts.

Peterson said Gwarube’s remarks were music to her ears.

“For a long time we have been arguing that you can have all the interventions in high school and particularly extra classes in matric, but if you don’t take care of the foundations of learning, around numeracy, around literacy and so forth, then we are actually dooming our kids to failure,” she said.

Peterson said research by her colleagues in mathematics education reveals a strong correlation between the development of mathematical concepts in the early years – such as in grades R, 1 and 2 – and a pupil’s ability to succeed in pure mathematics at the high school level and ultimately in matric. She emphasised that early struggles in foundational mathematical skills can have a lasting impact on a pupil’s performance in later years.

“We need to change the narrative in this country. Foundation phase and Grade R and ECD is not babysitting. It actually is cognitively more demanding to work with a group of young children in that phase, because that sets the basis for all their future learning up to high school and even beyond,” she said.

Causes for concern

The department is concerned about the BSM subjects – business studies, accounting and economics – as well as enrolment in maths, where there was a decline of 12,000, the highest in recent years.

In 2024, 69.1% of pupils passed maths, compared with 63.5% in 2023. However, in physical sciences, while 75.6% passed, it was a decrease from 76.2% in 2023.

Metcalfe said this is a concern for South Africa’s long-term education goals, especially in terms of meeting the National Development Plan (NDP) targets for maths success.

“The minister is correct that the strategic replanning of the department has to focus on planning to improve literacy and numeracy from the foundation phase. She made a very compelling argument that if we don’t get literacy and numeracy right, we will not have enough learners actually opting to take maths,” she said.

She explained that the country is “way below” its NDP target of 350,000 maths passes by 2030. “We only had 256,000 entries. So that’s not achieving the targets at all.”

Naicker also expressed serious concerns about the declining enrolment in subjects such as maths and BSM, especially the significant drop in maths enrolment of 12,000 pupils.

Top achievers for 2024 at the official release of the National Senior Certificate exam results in Johannesburg on 13 January 2025. (Photo: Gallo Images / Luba Lesolle)

“This is a great cause for concern, because some of these subjects, including maths and even business accounting, are the future of the world of work in our society. If learners are not confident to take and excel at these subjects, this doesn’t bode well for progress in those fields in the country,” she said.

To address this, she emphasised the need for revised pedagogic strategies in subjects like maths, science and physics, arguing that current methods are not yielding the necessary success.

Petersen noted that there has been an improvement in achievement across many subjects, with pass rates rising in most areas, except for science. However, she pointed out that gateway subjects continue to present a challenge, particularly because too few pupils are opting for pure mathematics. This trend is concerning for the country, especially considering access to higher education, since too few students are coming into the system in order to enrol in the kind of degree programmes where there are scarce skills. She also highlighted that technical subjects remain a significant challenge.

The dominant focus has traditionally been on the number of bachelor passes, and while that provides some insight into the system’s performance, it no longer tells the full story of how well the education system is truly doing, she said.

“The reality is there isn’t enough space for all the kids who get bachelor passes to enter into university, so what happens to these kids, because we are selling our children in this country this narrative that you can only get ahead in life if you have a bachelor’s pass and you get into university. There are respectable positions and career opportunities for children who can have some other kind of post school education, and I don’t think we prioritise those pathways strongly enough in this country,” she said.

In 2024, South Africa once again ranked last in most major global maths and science comparative tests. While not all countries participate, one of the most prominent international assessments in these fields is the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), which consistently highlights South Africa's underperformance on the global stage.

“This already indicates there’s something wrong with the teaching of medicine and science in our country. I want to make it very clear our learners are not less intelligent than any other child in the world, there’s nothing wrong with our kids, they are as intelligent as any other kid. I think that the system prevents them from excelling in medicine, science and economics, and those are the data subjects,” he said.

He stressed that the declining interest in these subjects is detrimental to the nation’s future. To address this, he emphasised the need for a concerted effort to encourage pupils to engage with and succeed in maths.

Retention a key challenge

Retention – the percentage of pupils who stay in the education system until matric – is a critical issue. Metcalfe said the national retention rate is 63%, but some provinces, such as the Western Cape, fare better.

“The Western Cape leads with a retention rate of 70%... In contrast, the Free State, despite strong NSC performance, has the lowest retention rate at just 55%,” she said.

Metcalfe also raised a difficult dilemma: Should the system retain struggling pupils in the hope they reach Grade 12, or should they be allowed to leave after Grade 9, once compulsory education ends?

Naicker acknowledged the long-standing issue of high failure and repetition rates, stressing that the system still struggles to address the gaps among pupils who fail and repeat grades.

“This has been a persistent problem. Even in higher education, we see students who are not prepared and have gaps from earlier years,” she said, reflecting on the situation over the past 16 to 20 years.

She recommended a more structured approach to remedial education, emphasising that after-school sessions alone are inadequate.

“Remedial education needs properly qualified teachers. We’re not addressing the gaps effectively, and instead we’re just moving students along,” Naicker said.

In addition, large class sizes prevented teachers from giving individualised attention to pupils who needed extra support.

Tracking pupils and addressing dropout

Gwarube noted that in 2013, about 1.2 million pupils started Grade 1, with roughly 740,000 enrolling as full-time Grade 12 candidates in 2024. Those who didn’t enrol in Grade 12 were not necessarily lost to the education system.

“After Grade 9, learners can choose to switch to technical and vocational education… Others progress at different paces, sometimes moving to part-time study or changing subjects. Some even migrate from public to private schools or sit for IEB or SACAI exams,” Gwarube explained.

Those pupils remained within the system but not as full-time candidates in the DBE exams. Therefore, labelling all pupils who didn’t reach Grade 12 in 2024 as dropouts was misleading.

“We must develop systems that track every learner throughout their entire educational journey, including higher education, to ensure accurate accountability,” she added.

Le Cordeur raised concerns about the 500,000 pupils who do not complete their education, suggesting many may end up on the streets, contributing little to the economy and increasing societal insecurity.

“This is a real concern. If we factor these learners in, our pass rate is closer to 55%, not 80%. These kids are out there, looking for opportunities, and they’re lost,” he said.

Asked how to track missing pupils, Le Cordeur proposed using technology, such as an app, to monitor their movement across the education system. While some might pursue vocational training, he pointed to the system’s limited capacity – fewer than 10,000 seats available – while only about 20,000 move to private schools. This left half a million unaccounted for.

“We need to stop debating and start acting. We must enhance our vocational schools and provide real opportunities for learners who wish to exit at Grade 9. The current system isn’t sufficient, and we cannot accept the dropout numbers as they are. It’s bad for the country,” he added.

Naicker expressed concern about the 36% dropout rate and the 8% of students who did not sit for exams.

Minister Siviwe Gwarube with the top achievers in Johannesburg on 13 January 2025. (Photo: Gallo Images / Luba Lesolle)

Teacher working conditions and socioeconomic factors

Peterson acknowledged that the throughput rate is always a concern among education critics but emphasised the importance of considering South Africa’s broader social challenges. She didn’t believe it is a straightforward in-and-out ratio, and emphasised that without proper data it is difficult to say with certainty what is happening.

Peterson said the basic education system isn’t solely to blame for all the challenges. It was also important to consider how much support pupils receive from their families to complete their studies through to Grade 12. Additionally, the role of community structures and the psychological support needed, especially given the trauma many young people face, cannot be overlooked. These social safety nets play a crucial role in helping learners reach matric and perform to their full potential.

“There’s a whole lot of factors around the throughput rate that we need to interrogate a little bit more and with accurate learner tracking we may be able to do so. I think that’s a big issue for improvement as these results are presented and I do think that this seems to be getting the kind of attention with the new minister, that we should be looking at moving forward,” she said.

Naicker echoed similar sentiments and noted that external factors such as teacher working conditions and socioeconomic issues also significantly affect student performance. She specifically pointed to overcrowded classrooms and the challenges faced by teachers.

“We must also look at the working conditions of teachers in the school and where schools are overcrowded. And, you know, the quality there that you can give,” she said.

Migration to provinces like Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal affected school overcrowding, which further strained resources and teacher capacity. DM

Scoring big

South African cricket prodigy Kwena Maphaka, who completed high school at St Stithians College in Johannesburg, managed to put together an average of 67% in his matric finals.

Maphaka had a particularly memorable 2024. He starred in the Under-19 World Cup on home soil, as the Proteas lost in the semifinals. He later made his senior debut as South Africa toured the West Indies and also appeared in the Indian Premier League.

Despite his strenuous schedule Maphaka bagged some impressive marks, including 78% for history, 76% for English, 75% in Afrikaans and 73% in life orientation.

“What is truly remarkable about Kwena was his determination to continue to serve the school as a prefect, as a mentor to juniors, and as our first team hockey captain despite all of these external commitments and opportunities,” said St Stithians principal David du Toit.

South African sprinting sensation Bayanda Walaza had an equally gruelling sporting 2024, while balancing it with his final year of high school; which he was doing at Curro Hazeldean. The 18-year-old passed with exemption and also achieved one distinction.

This achievement came on the back of him being part of the relay 100m team which won silver for South Africa at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Not long after his Olympics exploits, Walaza won the 100m and 200m titles at Junior World Championships in Lima, Peru.

“I’m impressed with how I did. With these results, I hope they will push me towards what I want to do this year, which is to study logistics,” Walaza, who turned down offers to study abroad, told SABC.

New T20 batting star Lhuan-dre Pretorius, who plays for the Paarl Royals in SA20, passed his final year of high school at Cornwall Hill College in Centurion. He spent the first four years of high school at St Stithians College in Sandton but moved up north after signing a contract with the Titans in Pretoria at the start of last year.

Outside of playing for South Africa under-19 at the Junior World Cup at home last year, he also made his first-class and T20 debuts for the Titans in a year filled with lots of cricket and not as much time in the classroom.

It’s no wonder his opening partner at the Paarl Royals during the SA20, Englishman Joe Root, said that the 18-year-old was surprised at successfully completing his final year of high school.

“I think he’s surprised himself that he’s passed his matric,” Root said about the youngster on Monday. “We had a good laugh about that.” DM

Categories:

Tags:

DM is much better if you are signed in...