Mediated dialogue required as Burkina Faso coup threatens to compound Sahel’s political and security crises

The 24 January military coup that overthrew Burkina Faso’s president Roch Marc Christian Kaboré comes amid a deepening security crisis in the country. Both civilians and defence and security forces have long voiced their discontent, including with Kaboré’s political stewardship.

This is also West Africa’s fourth coup in less than two years. Kaboré’s deposition follows those of former Malian presidents Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta and Bah N’Daw in August 2020 and May 2021 respectively, and that of former Guinean president Alpha Condé in September 2021.

Much more than a trend, increasing coups reflect a major crisis in West Africa’s political systems, which aren’t meeting the people’s expectations and are plagued by corruption. They indicate a need to rethink democratic models — not just elections, but also the effectiveness of institutions that are supposed to protect and serve citizens. 

Burkina’s latest coup was orchestrated by Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, who was recently promoted to head the country’s third military region. 

Since 2015, the country has faced an unprecedented crisis that has killed an estimated 7,569 people in six years and displaced more than 1.6 million. Frequent attacks by jihadist insurgents have targeted civilians and government officials, especially the armed forces, which have suffered heavy losses. Teachers, civil servants and judicial staff are also being targeted, leading to the disuse of public services in conflict-affected areas.

In June 2021, an attack on the village of Solhan, not far from the Niger border, killed at least 132 people. It was one of the deadliest in the country but wasn’t an isolated case. In 2021 alone, Burkina Faso recorded some 1,337 crisis-related violent incidents, with 2,294 casualties.

This despite Kaboré’s efforts to prioritise security. In January 2020, his government created the Volontaires pour la défense de la patrie, a corps of civilian auxiliaries mobilised to support the national defence and security forces. Most of its members come from former community militias. The government has also made budgetary efforts. Between 2016 and 2021, the national budget for defence and security grew from €240,746,280 to €652,759,680 — an increase of 271.14%. 

However, these investments haven’t improved the forces’ living conditions or operational capacity much, partly due to financial management problems. Rather, persistent equipment and supply problems have made them weaker while jihadist groups grow stronger.

In November 2021, 53 police officers died in a terror attack on the Inata military post while they were waiting for logistical support and supplies, including food rations. The incident sent shock waves through the country, leading to calls for Kaboré’s resignation. The dismissal of his prime minister Christophe Dabiré in early December initially eased tensions, but this was short-lived.

The Inata tragedy widened the gap between troops on the ground and military and political hierarchies. But the distrust isn’t surprising or new — it is mutual and long-standing. It dates back to the fall of Blaise Compaoré in 2014 and the dissolution of his presidential security regiment, as well as the attempted counter-coup in September 2015. While the counter-coup was thwarted, it damaged political leaders’ confidence in the military.

Many Burkinabè were also frustrated with the political management of the Kaboré regime, which was regularly accused of corruption, laxity and nepotism. Since 2017, polls have shown a steady decline in trust and satisfaction with a government that has failed to meet the Burkinabè people’s expectations for good governance. These expectations were considerable after 27 years of rule by Compaoré, who also came to power in a coup.

Public satisfaction rating for President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré’s actions, on a scale of 0 to 10

Public satisfaction rating for President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré’s actions, on a scale of 0 to 10. (Source: Institute for Security Studies graph, based on 2020 Présimètre data)