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Stuck in a quagmire, Israel risks tearing itself apart

21 May 2024

The collapse in international support for Israel, its slowing economy, the military quagmire and the fracturing of its body politic represent the greatest existential challenge to the country since its founding 76 years ago.

In mid-October 2023, as Israel began its brutal response to the horrific attacks of 7 October, many warned that it risked getting stuck in a Gazan quagmire. Now, not only is that looking to be the case, but the country is facing a series of other even more serious, potentially existential, crises.

The first dilemma is the strategic reality of the war. For more than seven months Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated his objective to achieve “total victory” by “eliminating Hamas”. Following that the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza would supposedly be returned home and calm would return to the northern border as skirmishes with Hezbollah died down.

Those targets, that once seemed so achievable with the cutting-edge weaponry and brute force of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), are looking increasingly unrealistic. Hamas has surged back in areas seized by Israeli forces, while hostage negotiations have all but collapsed. Hezbollah drones and missiles still rain down on the deserted Israeli villages of the Galilee. As one analyst remarked, “this will be Israel’s Vietnam”. The ever-rising IDF casualty count, which now stands at 278 soldiers killed since the offensive started, seems to confirm that.

The second problem is, as many have forecasted, the impact that the war is having on the formerly resilient Israeli economy. The government has ramped up spending and borrowing to fund the conflict. Israel’s 12-month trailing fiscal deficit reached 6.2% of GDP in March, the finance ministry said in April. Expenditure between January and March was 38% higher than during the same period last year. The government envisages a fiscal shortfall for this year of 6.6% of GDP, which would be one of the widest gaps for Israel this century. Last month the Israeli central bank held rates steady to protect the value of the shekel, while rating agency S&P followed peer Moody’s and downgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating. They cited geopolitical risks, spiralling borrowing and stagnant growth.

The near-complete national unity that followed Hamas’s 7 October attacks is fraying.

Third, the country has arguably never in its history been more geopolitically isolated. Even staunch allies, such as the US, are becoming increasingly critical of its actions in Gaza, with President Joe Biden delaying a shipment of weapons to Israel for the first time this month before reluctantly approving it. Other previously supportive governments, such as the UK, France and Egypt, have been stridently critical.

There can be no doubt that the decision by the chief prosecutor of the ICC to apply for arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant is a huge setback for Israel. It is now de facto a pariah state. Many Israelis will be dismayed by the implication that it is on the same moral level as a terrorist organisation.

As student protests continue around the world, it is clearly becoming increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to rationalise and defend Israeli actions and its lack of a credible plan to first end the conflict and then as to what comes next. Netanyahu, however, remains defiant. Recently he vowed that the Jewish state would “stand alone” if necessary and “fight with our fingernails”.

Divisions over the war worsening social and political tensions

Finally, and even more concerning, is that division over the war is fracturing Israeli social and political cohesion. The near-complete national unity that followed Hamas’s 7 October attacks is fraying. The public mood has darkened. About 62% of Israelis now believe “total victory” is no longer possible, against 27% who still think it realistic, according to polling this month that delivered the exact opposite results from a January survey, according to the Midgam Institute. Anti-Netanyahu protests have rocked Jerusalem and Tel Aviv for weeks.

Despite the initial show of unity, the war in Gaza has exacerbated the political instability and tension which have plagued Israel for years.

In an extraordinary announcement on the weekend, cabinet minister Benny Gantz threatened to quit the government if no new war strategy and plan for its aftermath was agreed. “The choice is in your hands,” Gantz said, addressing Netanyahu directly. “The Netanyahu of a decade ago would have done the right thing. Are you willing to do the right and patriotic thing today?”

Gantz echoed earlier statements from Gallant, a member of Netanyahu’s own party, Likud. He said last week that frustrations with how the war is being waged and the lack of a postwar plan are growing within the military establishment, and that victory could not be achieved through force of arms alone but required an alternative governing structure for the strip. According to Gallant, the lack of postwar planning had led to the erosion of Israel’s military gains within the Palestinian enclave.

Netanyahu is in a corner

Netanyahu, however, is unlikely to change tack. Relenting would likely lead to the collapse of his coalition with the extreme right and force the elections he is desperate to avoid. A vote would almost certainly result in his downfall as leader and potentially land him in jail on long-standing corruption charges. The ongoing assault on the Palestinians is therefore a useful means to an end.

Despite the initial show of unity, the war in Gaza has exacerbated the political instability and tension which have plagued Israel for years. The country had five elections in four years up to October 2022 when it emerged with Netanyahu at the head of the most right-wing government in its history. That led to Netanyahu’s attempt to pass a set of judicial reforms and the mass protests which defined the prewar Israeli political context.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Israel-Palestine War

Yet, with more than 35,000 Palestinians killed and millions displaced in what has been described as the “worst humanitarian crisis in 50 years” by a top UN official, the war remains popular with Israelis. A January survey found that 94% of Jewish Israelis said the force being used against Gaza was appropriate or even insufficient. In February, a poll found that most Jewish Israelis opposed food and medicine getting into Gaza.

It remains to be seen how the collapse in international support for Israel, its slowing economy, the military quagmire and the fracturing of its body politic will end. In totality they represent the greatest existential challenge to the country since its founding 76 years ago.

Biden warned after 7 October that Israel needed to think carefully as to how it would respond. Sadly for Israelis, but especially for the Palestinians, its government failed to do that. Instead, its ill-considered response has taken it to the brink of its own self-destruction as a functioning democracy and cohesive society. That is, of course, exactly what Hamas sought to achieve. DM

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