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Moderates vs far left and far right — the future dynamics of SA politics

Moderates vs far left and far right — the future dynamics of SA politics
Stephen Grootes
By Stephen Grootes
21 Apr 2025
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While the short-term focus is on whether the national coalition will survive, the main axis of our politics may be shifting beyond the current dynamic. It now looks as if our medium-term future could revolve around the tension between parties in the moderate middle and parties on the radical left and right. This might mean that the racial element in our politics becomes less important.

A series of recent polls and the results of last year’s elections show that the ANC and the DA together have the support of a significant majority of South Africans. At the same time, other research suggests that the national coalition (as it is currently constituted) also has broad support.

At the same time, our politics is likely to continue to fracture, with more voters voting for more parties, often parties formed around one political personality.

This can give the impression that this fracturing will continue forever, and that there will be no axes to judge what voters want. This is particularly true at the current moment, when the major parties of the national coalition are fighting with one another, and when other actors, such as Action SA, are fighting for space.

However, to remove the names and labels and simply look at parties through their political identities might reveal something else.

It suggests that in fact the group of parties that are in what could be called the “moderate middle” of our politics is larger than just the ANC and the DA.

This group would have to include Rise Mzansi, Action SA, Bosa and Good.

There is much that these parties have in common with the DA and the ANC. They are all racially diverse, they believe in constitutionalism and want to follow a largely pragmatic economic policy.

What might be different, though, is how they are led.

Action SA, Good and Bosa can all give the impression they revolve around one single personality. Action SA, for example, despite existing since 2019, has still not held a conference at which leadership elections have been held.

That said, it would still appear to be in the broad middle of our politics. 

Radical change parties


At the same time, at the other end of this axis are parties such as MK and the EFF, parties which call for radical change.

But included in this list might be parties that are almost exclusively defined around one element of identity.

So, for example, Al Jama-ah, based around the Muslim identity, or MK, which appears to be based around former President Jacob Zuma and aspects of his ethnic identity, could fit into this category.

While the identities of these parties are an important factor, perhaps more important is what kind of change they want in our society.

If they won an election single-handedly, these parties would want to radically change South Africa, to make it unrecognisable from what it is now. 

So then, perhaps the simplest way to understand our politics at the moment is to ask if a party is part of this moderate middle, or wants radical change and is defined around a narrow identity.

However, it is not that simple. Some parties, such as the IFP or the FF+, are organised around an ethnic identity, but are also broadly constitutionalist.

It is likely that their main aims are to protect and promote their communities. But there does not appear to be an intention to completely change the country (this can, of course, change from political season to political season).

Some parties, such as the Patriotic Alliance, may be difficult to define. 

A few of its beliefs, such as its full-throated support for Israel, might see it wanting to make some radical changes. On the other hand, it is currently very comfortable working with the ANC and the DA. Its leader, Gayton McKenzie, recently wrote an important op-ed piece arguing that the national coalition must continue, despite his own stated antipathy to the DA.

The PAC, too, does not fit easily into any box. 

It is a measure of how much has changed in our society that the PAC was once seen as one of the most radical parties in our politics. It has now been overtaken by parties such as the EFF which want radical change, and MK which wants no Constitution, and for traditional leaders to take the lead in governance.

The race factor


One of the more important aspects of viewing our politics in this way, through the axis of moderate middle vs radical shift, is that race is not an essential factor.

This shows how important this shift is.

In the past, and even now, race has played a major part in our politics. One of the reasons there is so much tension between the ANC and the DA is simply because of the issue of race.

While it is likely that race will be an important factor in our politics for as long as we have racialised inequality, it might now become less of a determining factor.

Instead, our politics will be defined by this axis of moderation vs radicalism.

This might also suggest that the broad support there appears to be for parties in the middle of our politics will continue.

But, this might depend on two main factors.

The first is whether our voting system remains as it is, with proportional representation, or if it is changed to a different system.

Our current system makes it difficult for a party to win elections, or even to win more than 20% in elections, without appealing to a diverse group of voters.

But if it is changed to perhaps a constituency system, or something else, it might be easier for a party with support limited to one group to win more votes.

And then, of course, there is the fact that it is possible that the muddle in the middle that might now define our politics leads to no economic growth, and crucially, no jobs for young people.

It has often been observed that if there were one party that organised properly around the unemployed, that party would win a two-thirds majority in our Parliament.

For the moment, that has not happened. But if the economic situation gets worse, one day someone may be able to organise millions of people who have gained virtually nothing from our current situation.

And that, in turn, could change our politics radically and move us away from moderation to something very different. DM

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