The unrest that broke out in Mozambique just before Christmas has been linked to a prison riot that left 33 dead and hundreds of prisoners on the loose. The escalating conflict may pose a threat to South Africa’s national security and economic interests.
A riot at a prison in Mozambique’s capital, Maputo, on Wednesday, 25 December resulted in 1,534 prisoners escaping from the facility. The incident followed an outbreak of unrest in the country, stemming from the contested outcome of the October election.
During the clashes at Maputo Central Prison, 33 people died and 15 were wounded, according to Bernardino Rafael, general commander of the Mozambique police. A video seen by Daily Maverick appears to show bodies of those shot and killed during the riot piled in rows on the ground.
Dr Paula Cristina Roque, executive director of the research and advocacy organisation Intelwatch, described the situation in Mozambique as “very dangerous and volatile”.
“We have a lot of contradictory forces in play, and it’s very dangerous, because with … this volatility, anything can happen and then nobody will be held responsible, because it’ll all be excused on the premise of [dealing with] criminality,” she told Daily Maverick.
Rafael placed the blame for the prison riot on “subversive demonstrators”, claiming they approached the facility and broke people out of their cells.
According to a report by Agência de Informação de Moçambique (AIM), this contradicts statements made by Mozambican Justice Minister Helena Kida. She claimed the mass breakout was an inside job and had nothing to do with the post-election rioting.
Among those who escaped were 29 prisoners serving sentences for terrorism, according to AIM. By Wednesday evening, police had recaptured more than 150 of the fugitives, with operations under way to locate the rest.
‘Preparation for a bigger conflict’
Disruptive protests broke out in Mozambique on Tuesday, 23 December after the country’s Constitutional Council certified the ruling Frelimo party and its presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, as the winners of the presidential, legislative and provincial elections in October. There have also been reports of widespread looting of shops across Maputo over the past few days.
Read more: SA calls for urgent dialogue amidst Mozambique’s escalating violence and protests
The elections were marred by accusations of rigging. Opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane, the head of the Podemos party, previously stated that chaos would erupt if the Constitutional Council did not declare him the true victor.
He has since urged his supporters to stop the looting, stating that the point of the demonstrations was to establish the truth about elections and not to target private shops, according to AIM.
The escape of prisoners from Maputo Central Prison took place against this backdrop of unrest. However, it doesn’t appear to be an isolated incident.
Borges Nhamirre, a Maputo-based researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), said, “In addition to the more than 1,500 prisoners released from Maputo's central jail, similar incidents have taken place in four other district-level prisons in Maputo and Zambézia provinces. So, around 2,000 prisoners have been released in around a month and the level of recapture is very low — around 10%. The conflict is still escalating and the worst may be yet to come.”
Nhamirre suggested that the events unfolding in Mozambique were in “preparation for an even bigger conflict”.
“The government may be preparing an even heavier military response and the opposition leader is not backing down. The release of prisoners may be part of the plan for this longer and more intense struggle,” he said.
Roque suggested that the incident at Maputo Central Prison may have been orchestrated by agents of the state to discredit opposition protesters and justify a heavier crackdown on the unrest.
According to AIM, the unrest has had a severe impact on the local health system. Medical professionals have been unable to reach their workplaces due to the disruption of passenger transport services. On Wednesday, more than 200 people working at Maputo Central Hospital, the country’s largest health facility, were unable to get to work because of blocked roads.
On the SA border
The chaos unfolding in Mozambique has implications for safety and security in South Africa, said Roque. She warned that criminality stemming from the prison breaks was likely to spill across the border.
“Any criminality or small arms will cross the border into South Africa. There’s no doubt about that, whether it takes a more organised form of syndicates or just people crossing the border,” she said.
Roque pointed out that the conflict would also have an economic impact on South Africa, affecting exports and trade.
South African petrochemical company Sasol has already reduced natural gas production at its central processing facility in Temane, Mozambique, to ensure the safety of its staff and assets, according to a Reuters report.
Daily Maverick contacted the South African Border Management Authority (BMA) about the measures in place at the Lebombo border post — the main entry point for South Africans into Mozambique — in light of the unrest and prison break.
“Our systems are in place. We are processing everyone … and we’re doing traveller profiling. If you do not have documents to enter South Africa, you will not be allowed to enter the country,” said BMA spokesperson Mmemme Mogotsi.
“One of our enforcement techniques [is that] we’ve deployed drones that are assisting to monitor movement on the borderline… Once we detect any movement on the borderline, we are able to send our patrols to go and just block them where they are trying to enter… We’re working closely with the South African National Defence Force.”
The BMA has continued to allow movement through the Lebombo border post. However, cargo trucks have been barred from entering Mozambique due to safety concerns.
“This was discussed with the trucking association and truck owners that seek advice in terms of what the situation is like on the ground. Mozambique government officials were able to advise and say ... just at this point, truck movement should be suspended,” she said.
Far fewer travellers crossed the South Africa-Mozambique border this December than last year, probably because of the ongoing unrest, said Mogotsi.
“If you look at 25 December last year, we were processing just over 10,000 people. On 25 December this year, we were processing just over 3,000 people. So, you can see a significant decrease in terms of movement,” she said.
Mogotsi said that on 24 December, the day when many people travel home for Christmas, only about 5,000 people crossed the border, compared to more than 20,000 on the same day in 2023.
Mediating the conflict
Roque called on South Africa to take on a more active mediation role in the Mozambique conflict, adding that it was “irresponsible” not to, especially given the potential impact of the unrest on its national security interests.
The South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) released a statement after the Constitutional Council ruling on Mozambique’s election results, calling on all parties to “commit to an urgent dialogue” to “heal the country and set it on a new political and developmental trajectory”.
“South Africa is ready to assist Mozambique in any manner to facilitate this dialogue,” said Dirco. “The South African government will continue working with SADC [Southern African Development Community] and other multilateral agencies in supporting a lasting solution to the current impasse. South Africa calls on all parties to exercise restraint and calm.”
African Union (AU) chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat released a statement on 25 December expressing “deep concern” at the ongoing violence in Mozambique and calling for calm in the region.
“The chairperson encourages security services to exercise restraint in the use of force in the midst of the violence… The chairperson further urges the government and all the national political and social actors to seek a peaceful solution to resolving the current crisis to avoid further loss of life and destruction of property,” read the statement.
Mahamat reaffirmed the AU’s commitment to collaborate with the Mozambican government, national stakeholders and the SADC to end the violence and safeguard constitutional democracy in Mozambique. DM