Op-eds

Is this Mozambique’s last stand for democracy, after 25 years of electoral fraud and one-party dominance?

14 Nov 2024

Following this month’s elections, mass protests are the last resort for the opposition and the public.

When Southern African Development Community (SADC) ministers and heads of state meet from 15 to 20 November in Harare, the crisis in Mozambique should top their agenda.

The country is facing its worst post-election violence to date, with the opposition leading deadly nationwide protests against what domestic observer groups have called highly fraudulent polls. International observers also noted irregularities and a lack of credibility in the electoral process.

The demonstrations have caused dozens of deaths and could reduce economic growth by 2% of the country’s gross domestic product.

Allegations of electoral fraud in the 9 October general elections cannot be seen in isolation. They are the result of an authoritarian march by the Mozambican Liberation Front (Frelimo), which has held power for nearly 50 years. This trend worsened in the past decade under President Filipe Nyusi, and has eroded prospects for building an accountable, democratic state.

Since Nyusi became president and Frelimo leader in 2015, his goal has been to amass power. He was the only candidate for party leadership at the 2022 Frelimo congress and was elected with 100% of the 1,136 delegates’ votes. Roque Silva, then Frelimo’s general secretary and one of Nyusi’s greatest supporters, said it was “a result that we are very proud of; it is the 100% Nyusi brand”.

Read more: SA defers to SADC and AU assessment of Mozambique elections

Nyusi’s ambition to accumulate power has led to fraud and the manipulation of electoral processes. In the 2018 municipal elections – the first after Nyusi took office – rigging saw Mozambique fall from a hybrid democracy to an authoritarian regime in the Democracy Index.

Despite protests from the opposition and democracy watchdog organisations, blatant manipulation continued in the 2019 general elections. That year, Frelimo and Nyusi had one of the biggest victories in liberal democratic Mozambique’s history.

Realising polls could be manipulated without any consequences besides opposition cries and electoral observer group criticism, Frelimo stepped up the election fraud. In the 2023 local elections, Frelimo mayors were declared winners in 64 out of 65 municipalities, leading to a major revolt by the opposition that lasted more than 40 days.

Under pressure, the Constitutional Council – acting as the supreme electoral court – overturned the results approved by the National Electoral Commission (CNE). The CNE’s composition is based on proportional representation of party seats in parliament. Since Frelimo has the most seats, it has the most commissioners, whose decisions will always favour the party.

The Constitutional Council’s decision removed thousands of votes attributed to Frelimo, giving them to opposition parties. As a result, the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) was declared the winner in four municipalities initially “won” by Frelimo.

Although seemingly positive, this was in fact a lost opportunity for the judiciary to hold the electoral administration accountable. Instead of handling its inquiry in a transparent manner to build public credibility, the council deliberated in secret, never explaining how it decided to reallocate votes from Frelimo to the opposition.

Parallel vote tabulation from electoral observers showed that the opposition won in 18 municipalities, with Renamo the victor in key cities such as Maputo, Matola and Nampula. But the electoral justice system lacked the independence and power to overturn the official results, declaring victory for Frelimo.

After this month’s elections, opposition leaders – aware that the electoral justice system would not hold the electoral administration to account – resorted to mass protests. Faced with the police’s heavy-handed response, the protesters have turned violent.

Data from domestic election observers showed that by 8 November, at least 20 people had been killed by police in the protests. Mozambique’s medical association said wounds on the bodies of 10 people showed that the police fired with intent to kill.

Key opposition leaders in two Renamo stronghold provinces, Zambezia and Sofala, told ISS Today that the violence was a direct consequence of the discrediting or collapse of democratic institutions.

The election results released by CNE on 24 October gave Frelimo 195 of the 250 seats in Mozambique’s unicameral parliament – its largest victory since the country’s first multiparty elections in 1994.

In 1999, the legislative election results showed a balance between the ruling party and the opposition. Frelimo won 133 seats against Renamo’s 117. But 25 years of electoral fraud have reduced the opposition’s representation in parliament to just more than 20%, and at a time of growing economic hardship and criticism of the government’s failure to deliver.

Commenting on this month’s polls, Albano Carige of the Mozambique Democratic Movement and mayor of Beira, the country’s second-largest city, told ISS Today: “We all know that the results were fabricated.

“[CNE] itself can’t justify the discrepancy in numbers between the votes obtained in the elections for President… and the votes obtained in the legislative elections, but it had to rush to release the results in order to meet the legal deadlines. This was done to benefit Frelimo.”

Carige said the opposition had no real chance of winning an election since Mozambique’s electoral playing field is uneven and ineffective. He said if the Constitutional Council upheld the results published by the CNE, there was a risk of generalised political violence, leading to more death and destruction.

Presidential runner-up candidate Venâncio Mondlane, a former Renamo member, is in hiding outside the country, and continues to call for protests to paralyse Mozambique’s economy. He has just announced more demonstrations until 15 November, focusing on ports and borders.

Mozambique’s most prominent development corridors, Maputo and Beira, were seriously affected this week, with transporters ceasing activities for fear of attack. Continued demonstrations will further damage the country’s economy.

The various calls for negotiations have been ineffective. The SADC summit starting this week could buttress Mozambique’s last stand for democracy by encouraging the electoral bodies to respect the will of the people, as expressed at the polling stations.

The SADC can also help find mechanisms for the peaceful resolution of post-election conflict by urging Mozambique to follow the SADC principles and guidelines governing democratic elections. DM

Borges Nhamirre, Research Consultant, Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

First published by ISS Today.

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