Mozambique’s march to authoritarianism has dire potential to spark internal political crisis  

In his first three years after becoming president in 2015, Filipe Nyusi’s governance led Mozambique to fall in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index from a hybrid regime to an authoritarian one.

A hybrid government combines democratic traits such as frequent and direct elections, with autocratic ones such as political repression. An authoritarian system is characterised by highly concentrated and centralised power maintained by political repression and the exclusion of potential challengers. 

Mozambique also dropped in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance, which assesses 54 countries on the continent. In 2010 it was in 22nd position — by 2019 it had fallen four places to 26th out of 54. 

As the end of Nyusi’s second term approaches, he still hasn’t managed to shift Mozambique from the uncomfortable position of ‘authoritarian regime’. And signs of autocracy are increasing, with suspicions growing that he intends to change the country’s constitution to accommodate a third term. 

This has received little global attention, including from Nyusi’s peers in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and African Union (AU). Everyone seems focused on fighting the northern Mozambique insurgency and on the country’s first liquefied natural gas export to ease Europe’s energy crisis since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The fall in the Democracy Index was prompted by the rigged 2018 elections, which observers inside and outside Mozambique widely criticised for unlawfully favouring the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo). In subsequent years, this tendency by the Maputo regime to undermine the levers of democracy has continued. 

In the 2021 Democracy Index, Mozambique scored 25.8% in the electoral process and pluralism component, 14.3% in the functioning of government, 50% in political participation and political culture and 35.3% in civil liberties. These results placed it below countries such as Iraq, Pakistan and Mauritania. In Freedom House’s 2021 world ranking, Mozambique lost 16 points compared to the previous year. With 43 points out of a possible 100, it is now classified as a ‘partially free’ country. 

The most recent signs of centralising power around one individual and his political cronies were seen at the Frelimo congress in September. Nyusi — the only candidate for party leadership — was elected with 100% of the 1,136 delegates’ votes. Roque Silva, Frelimo’s General Secretary and one of Nyusi’s greatest supporters said it was “a result that we are very proud of; it is the 100% Nyusi brand.”

It wasn’t just Nyusi who was re-elected in a clean sweep. On the eve of the congress, the 11 Frelimo provincial secretaries — all proposed by Nyusi’s faction within the party — were also voted in with 100% of ballots in an uncontested race.