Mpho Phalatse vs John Steenhuisen – who will win?

Fresh from being voted out of Johannesburg’s mayoral office, Mpho Phalatse launched her campaign on Monday to become leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA) at the party’s federal congress in April.

The telegenic and popular doctor-turned-politician will run on her understanding of the “astute challenges of government” as an executive mayor and a member of the mayoral executive under Herman Mashaba.

The DA will campaign in 2024 as a party that ran good governments wherever it headed the administration.

Asked what governing strengths Phalatse would campaign on, a supporter said her plans for mitigating load shedding, balancing a precarious city budget and taking a firm line on corruption by reconstituting Johannesburg’s disciplinary board, would count in Phalatse’s favour.

Then mayor Mpho Phalatse during a media briefing regarding the City’s interventions to manage and mitigate rolling blackouts, City of Jhb Council Chamber, 26 January 2023. (Photo: Julia Evans)

Handful of supporters

But only a few Johannesburg councillors attended Phalatse’s Soweto launch on Monday, where there were more journalists than supporters in attendance.

The closest officials from her year in office are not part of her campaign. Phalatse has two months to win the support of delegates to the party’s federal congress that takes place in April.

“It’s safe to say an incumbent has an advantage,” said a supporter of Phalatse, referring to party leader John Steenhuisen. He is a popular leader in the DA and has already won significant support to get his second term, according to his supporters.

He was elected federal leader in November 2020 after serving as an interim leader when Mmusi Maimane quit. Steenhuisen has the support of many voting blocs who will elect new leaders in April, including councillors, branch members from vote-rich DA constituencies, and the party’s MPs and members of provincial legislatures.

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Steenhuisen was a councillor in Durban for many years and his knowledge of, and empathy for, the tough challenges faced by ward councillors has won him support from the most powerful group at the federal congress.

Steenhuisen is also seen to have stabilised the party and dealt with the cliques and leaks that had come to characterise the DA.

DA leader John Steenhuisen. (Photo: Gallo Images / Darren Stewart)

While Phalatse is popular in the DA, strategists say she should have taken a seat as an MP in 2024, when there will be a national election, and then launched a bid for leadership in 2026.

She led a tough coalition government in Johannesburg and faced two motions of no confidence, the second of which she conceded. Her court battle against an earlier power grab by the unstable coalition won her many plaudits. But she leaves behind a shattered Johannesburg for which she had good ideas to fix, but this is a city so battered that her government could not make much of an impact in such a short time.

With Phalatse as the face of the party, the DA would get 35% of the vote in 2024, said her campaign manager, Solomon Maila, who is also a manager of the party’s Johannesburg caucus.

‘Support across provinces’

He said Phalatse had support across provinces and that many people in the party were not happy with the prospect of Steenhuisen being the face of the party’s election campaign in 2024.

Maila said that with Steenhuisen as party leader, the DA could secure less than the 22% it managed in the 2021 local government poll.

“John welcomes the challenge and welcomes Mpho Phalatse’s willingness to stand. No leader is ordained or hand-picked,” said Steenhuisen’s campaign manager, Ashor Sarupen, adding, “John’s chances are looking strong.”

The following extract from the DA’s constitution shows how the party chooses delegates for its congress. The make-up favours incumbents:

The Federal Council or Federal Executive shall determine the number of Congress delegates, which shall comprise:

1. 
   
   
   
   1. The Federal Leader
   
   
   2. The Federal Chairperson
   
   
   3. The three Deputy Federal Chairpersons
   
   
   4. The Chairperson and two Deputy Chairpersons of the Federal Council
   
   
   5. The Federal Chairperson of Finance
   
   
   6. The Chief Executive Officer, without voting rights
   
   
   7. Any co-opted members of the Federal Executive
   
   
   8. The Provincial Leader, one Deputy Provincial Leader and the Provincial Chairperson, if any, per province
   
   
   9. All Members of Parliament and Members of Provincial Legislatures
   
   
   10. The balance of Congress shall comprise:
   
   
   
   

Local government councillors equal to five times the number of Members of Parliament and the Provincial Legislatures in the country allocated to the provinces based on the proportion of votes obtained by the party in that province in the last election of a national nature;

Non-public representative delegates allocated to branches and elected by a proportional voting system approved by the Federal Council or Federal Executive, which shall not comprise less than 45% of the total Congress delegates;

The Federal Leader, the Federal Chairperson and Provincial Chairpersons of the Democratic Alliance Youth;

The Federal Leader, the Federal Chairperson and Provincial Leaders of the Democratic Alliance Women’s Network;

The Chairperson of the Association of Democratic Alliance Councillors, or their nominee, and the Provincial Chairperson of the Association of Democratic Alliance Councillors in each province, if not already a delegate in another capacity;

The DA Abroad Leader or their nominee;

Nine other delegates from DA Abroad were allocated according to a formula approved by the Federal Council; and

Other persons invited by the Federal Leader or the Federal Chairperson, with the approval of the Federal Council, provided that such persons may not vote. DM