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Murder on the rise in South Africa’s ‘big four’ provinces

Murder on the rise in South Africa’s ‘big four’ provinces
Daily Maverick
By Daily Maverick
1 Dec 2023
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Four provinces – the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape – have more murders per capita than any other province, accounting for 83% of murders in South Africa in 2022/23. Here are the murder rates for all nine provinces, and the three big contributing factors.

A recent policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) highlights South Africa’s soaring murder rates, particularly in four provinces. While these rates vary substantially across provinces, the Eastern Cape, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng stand out as the deadliest.

Per-capita murder rates per province Source: Institute for Security Studies (ISS) policy brief 'Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces'.



  • In 2022/23, the Eastern Cape had the highest murder rate (71 per 100,000 people), followed by KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, both with annual murder rates of 56 per 100,000 population;

  • Since 2011/12, rates have increased most dramatically in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. The increase was greatest from 2017/18 to 2022/23;

  • KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng both experienced “major surges in murder in 2021/22, with increases continuing in 2022/23. These have taken them well above their rates in the year before the Covid pandemic and national lockdown”; and

  • It was noted that deaths that had occurred during the July 2021 attempted insurrection after the incarceration of former president Jacob Zuma “were not a major contributor to the increases in murder in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in 2021/22”.


Per-capita murder rates per province Source: Institute for Security Studies (ISS) policy brief 'Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces'.



In its 2022 report on organised crime in South Africa, the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime said the increasing prevalence of factors such as weakened policing, the distribution of state firearms to criminals, and corruption within the gun licensing system significantly contributes to the troubling trend. Although detailed police reports are available, the author notes a lack of clarity regarding the extent of organised crime’s influence on murders. The author recommends more thorough provincial research to address this gap in understanding. DM

Read more in Daily Maverick: Organised crime a significant contributor to soaring murder rates in South Africa, reveals policy brief

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