Namibian elections ahead — here’s what you need to know

‘Swapo is here to stay. Swapo will remain as the leading party in the Republic of Namibia for years, decades and centuries to come,” said the country’s president, Nangolo Mbumba, at an election rally in Namibia’s northern Oshikoto Region this week.

Despite Mbumba’s sentiments, his party, the South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo), is facing its most difficult election to date, following a trend of former liberation movements losing grip on power across the region.

In June, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its outright parliamentary majority in South Africa, having to form a Government of National Unity (GNU) with nine opposition parties.

Botswana’s former ruling party, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), was unseated by the Umbrella for Democratic Change in October. The BDP had been in power since Botswana gained independence from the British in 1966, but fell from 38 seats to four in the National Assembly after this year’s election.

Earlier in October, the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) and its presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, held on to power. However, the opposition claimed that the results were rigged and an unprecedented wave of protests ensued. The protests are likely to continue.

Read more: ‘Maputo is like a warzone’ — Activists lament global inaction as protest and state suppression deepen in Mozambique

Graham Hopwood, the executive director at the Institute for Public Policy Research, said while there were similarities between Namibia and the rest of the region, Namibia lacked strong opposition parties like South Africa’s Democratic Alliance and the uMkhonto Wesizwe party.

“While the opposition will take some votes from Swapo they are unlikely to unseat them,” said Hopwood.

He said the youth vote would be a major factor in the Namibian elections, stating, “If they do turn out, particularly the urban youth, they could influence the outcome of the election and reduce Swapo’s chances of getting more than 50%.”

Swapo’s dwindling grip on power

Swapo has been in power since 1990 and held a supermajority from the 1994 national elections until 2019, when its presidential candidate, Hage Geingob, secured only 56.3% of the vote, compared to 86.73% in 2014.

Panduleni Itula, a dentist and lawyer, ran as an independent candidate and garnered 29.37% of the vote in 2019. He has since established a new party, the Independent Patriots for Change, and could be Swapo’s biggest threat in next week’s national election.

Read more: Swapo could be the next former liberation movement to lose its grip on power

Henning Melber, an extraordinary professor of political science at the University of Pretoria, said that Itula was able to take almost 30% of the votes from Geingob because people voted for him in protest.

A scattered opposition

He noted that Namibia’s un-unified opposition boded well for Swapo because the parties were “fractured and unable to form meaningful alliances”.

He pointed out that opposition parties often had “nothing to contribute” and that “their elected leaders mainly enjoy the access to the honeypot of being a well-paid MP with considerable fringe benefits.

“Opposition parties managed a coalition in the 2020 regional and local authorities elections for the major Namibian towns which Swapo lost (including the capital Windhoek). But they ended in fights and nothing changed for the better over the last four years.”

Hopwood said none of the present opposition looked like alternative governments in the making.

“They are made up of different interest groups, some of them ethnic-based. They also differ ideologically,” he said.

He said the results of the 13 November special election indicated that Swapo was likely to remain in power. If Swapo doesn’t achieve a clear majority, Hopwood speculates that the party will probably ally with smaller ethic-based parties like the United Democratic Front or the National Unity Democratic Organisation.

However, If Swapo does drop below 45% of the vote “they will have to consider linking up with bigger opposition parties or forming a GNU,” said Hopwood.

Pre-election woes

Lifalaza Simataa, the spokesperson for the Landless People’s Movement (LPM), expressed concerns about how the Electoral College of Namibia (ECN) handled the special voting that took place on 13 November — which was held for essential service personnel and Namibians who live abroad.

Simataa said the LPM had qualms with the way the ECN conducted the special election. He said one venue ran out of voting papers and had to wait for more to arrive and another venue asked voters to shift from inside the building to outside.

“We feel that movement of such delicate and important information can be quite problematic because things can go missing and things can be damaged,” said Simataa.

Tear gas was fired at voters who grew increasingly impatient at one of the polling stations. The chief of the Namibian Defence Force, Martin Pineas, said: “They only used tear gas to disperse soldiers who were overcrowding the entrance and did not heed orders to make way. The intention was simply to make sure there was order and to allow the process to proceed smoothly.”

The co-founder and leader of Affirmative Repositioning (AR), Job Amupanda, accused the Ministry of Defence and Veterans Affairs of buying a single car part for N$8-million (R8-million).

This prompted the ministry to call for an emergency press briefing in Windhoek where they accused Amupanda of seeking political relevance ahead of the election.

Speaking at the press briefing, the ministry’s executive director, Wilhelmine Shivute, said the allegations were part of AR’s political campaign and that “he chose to mislead the public by falsely accusing the ministry”. DM