National election 2024: At the centre of it is the issue affecting almost everyone — Law and Order

17 Aug 2023

The first Shared Governing Principle of the new Multi-Party Charter for SA states that the seven opposition parties in it are committed to the Constitution, the rule of law and equality before the law. This shows the power of the issue of ‘law and order’ in our society and how it could be used as a campaigning tool. It is also a powerful unifier for parties with diverse constituencies.

One of the striking aspects of the arguments around the taxi strike in Cape Town was how often people spoke about the law. For many, it was about the fact that taxi drivers have a well-deserved reputation for breaking the law, consistently and every day. Cape Town officials, all from the DA and most of them white men, spoke about how important it was for drivers to simply “comply with the law”.

Meanwhile, in Tshwane, the DA mayor there, Cilliers Brink, has accused the SA Municipal Workers’ Union (Samwu) of breaking the law.

He says Samwu is participating in an illegal strike which has seen at least one Tshwane worker being shot while trying to reconnect water to residents of Montana. Samwu denies its members are on strike, while the Labour Court is due to make a second finding on the issue soon (in its first finding, a judge said there was not enough evidence to show Samwu was involved in a strike).

Here too, the DA appears to be arguing that it is standing up for “law and order”, while Samwu is opposing this.

The phrase “law and order” can have very different resonances in different societies and among different constituencies.

Away from the TV-watching public, it can mean one thing to one constituency and something different to another.

In the US, some politicians have tried to claim they are supporters of “law and order”, and Vice-President Kamala Harris was seen by some as a “law and order” Democrat — which led to her losing the support of those on the left of the Democratic Party.

In South Africa, in the last days of apartheid, the “Law and Order” Ministry had a terrible reputation as the organ of the state that upheld racist laws. And it was the minister of law and order who gave the orders to have anti-apartheid activists killed.

The ANC changed the name of this ministry to “Safety and Security” in 1994, precisely to show that it would now have a very different function (it has since been renamed the “Police Ministry”).

All that said, it is clear that there is a large and diverse constituency of people in South Africa who believe the law must be enforced, and that the current ANC government is failing at that.

It is a lament that can be heard almost everywhere. Whether it is about corruption, taxi drivers, at least one former president or even “illegal foreigners”, there is a general outcry about the state of “lawlessness” in South Africa.

A game-changing issue

The poorer you are, the more likely you are to be a victim of violent crime. Considering the sheer intensity of South Africa’s poverty, and the number of people in this position who do not vote, the power of this issue could be game-changing.

Were a dictator ever to enjoy legitimacy in our country, it would be because they had found a way to bring down the rates of violent crime.

So frustrated are so many about the lawlessness that they could consider voting for a new coalition of forces.

This explains why so many political parties and not just the DA say they support the rule of law.

These parties represent different constituencies, whether it is the DA, the Afrikaans-speaking FF+, the Zulu-speaking IFP or the urban-based ActionSA.

This means there is competition for the votes of those who want the law to be upheld.

Considering that these parties will find it easy to disagree on many other aspects of our society, this is a useful rallying point. They could say they are working together as a coalition simply to uphold the law as it currently is.

And they could promise to work together to fight corruption, uphold the Constitution and improve the driving of taxi drivers.

A message that simple, that uncontested, would be difficult for the ANC to oppose.

It would also mean that these opposition parties would have to cast the ANC and the EFF as being opposed to the rule of law.

They would be able to point to the ANC’s long track record of corruption and of protecting people accused of corruption and the involvement of the EFF’s leadership in the looting of the VBS bank.

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-09-08-vbs-theft-money-laundering-lifes-little-luxuries-julius-malemas-time-of-spending-dangerously/

There are various proxy fights that may be fought here.

First, any corruption scandal involving the ANC or other parties could be used against it, and any gesture or supposed gesture of support for the taxi industry, or any kind of law-breaking in any way could become a focal point of the elections.

However, the ANC may respond to this by invoking South Arica’s past.

For example, when so many ANC figures referred to the Cape Town councillor JP Smith as “arrogant” during last week’s taxi strike, they were really reminding people of the fact that he is a white man. They were making the point that this was a white person using the law against black people.

Of course, most voters have strong memories of apartheid.

But there is also a growing resentment at the way our nation is governed, and in particular the corruption and apparent “lawlessness” which is on daily display.

This means that while the ANC may argue that appeals for “law and order” involve white people in the DA trying to oppress black people, the power of that message is weakening.

Those parties that have advocated for the radical or even violent redistribution of wealth away from white people have not been able to come close to a majority. This suggests that the priorities of most voters have lain elsewhere.

For many voters, the first priority must be the safety of their families and themselves and an end to violent crime and corruption. While it is hard to fully assess this across the electorate, this issue may be more important than the identity of the person campaigning for the rule of law.

This is an indication of how quickly the levels of violent crime have risen, and of how frightening life has become for so many people in the years after the pandemic.

If this new coalition of parties is properly able to harness this sentiment and put the ANC on the back foot, it will be to its immense benefit.

But it will take a clear commitment, a clear message and completely above-board behaviour from all the leaders of these parties. DM

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A game-changing issue