NEC’s decision to quash Phala Phala panel report proves the ANC is (still) the only game in town

5 Dec 2022

The ANC’s supremacy allows the party to retain all of the power without giving up any to other parties. And it means that any decisions about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s future will come only from within the ANC.

As opposition parties prepare to argue for the impeachment of President Cyril Ramaphosa next week, the current crisis once again appears to underscore just how weak they really are. In fact, this situation proves just how little influence opposition parties have in our politics.

This is for many reasons, including the fractured nature of the opposition, and the fact the ANC still has an absolute majority in the National Assembly. But the fact remains, that until a movement or group of movements arrives that could seriously threaten the ANC at the ballot box, it is likely that the opposition will remain impotent. And that the ANC will be able to continue to behave in this fashion.

Ahead of the parliamentary debate about the Phala Phala panel report which found Ramaphosa may have seriously violated the law and the Constitution, several opposition parties have already indicated which way they will vote.

The EFF’s leader, Julius Malema, said that his MPs will vote for the impeachment process to commence and that Ramaphosa should be removed. He called on ANC MPs who have publicly said Ramaphosa should step down to disobey their party whip.

These would include Cogta Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu and International Relations Committee Chair Supra Mahumapelo, whom he called by name.

It seems unlikely that they will heed his advice.

The African Transformation Movement (ATM), which lodged the motion in the first place, is also publicly arguing vociferously for Ramaphosa to be removed.

The DA appears to be playing a slightly more muted game: it is arguing Ramaphosa should be removed, but does not appear to be trying to influence the internal politics of the ANC to the same degree as the EFF.

NEC halts process in its tracks

Meanwhile, the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) has instructed its MPs to reject the report, thus halting the impeachment process in its tracks.

This would mean that despite the findings, and despite the fact the ANC itself felt compelled to call so many high-level meetings in the last few days, it will simply reject the report.

And that would be the end of the parliamentary process. Finish en klaar.

The ANC still holds all the cards. Full stop.

This supremacy allows the party to retain all of the power without giving up any to other parties. And it means that any decisions about Ramaphosa’s future will come only from within the ANC.

Also, as the ANC has now already held a “special NEC meeting”, it is unlikely to call another one before its conference, so this issue will probably be settled at Nasrec.

This leaves opposition parties with only one option, to attempt to overturn the National Assembly’s decision — presumably to reject the report — in court.

But, as UCT Public Law Professor Pierre de Vos has explained, it is unlikely that a judge or judges would ever try to overturn a parliamentary vote as it would mean that judges have replaced MPs and interfered with the separation of powers.

All of this suggests that opposition parties are in a weak position, strong statements and stunts notwithstanding.

This may be why Malema is still concentrating his efforts on trying to influence events within the ANC.

This may bring back memories of some of the pandemic times, when parties outside the government could only watch from the sidelines and shout.

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Opposition parties fight one another

In the days after the Phala Phala panel’s findings, it has been said by many people that while this is damaging for Ramaphosa, it is also damaging for the ANC. Once again, the party is defending a leader it installed in office against claims of corruption.

And again, people have made the prediction that the ANC could fall below 50% in the 2024 elections.

But it is still not clear where voters will move to. In other words, there is still no indication that the current opposition parties are really going to benefit from this.

In fact, in some cases, it appears that opposition parties, such as the Good party and ActionSA, are more interested in taking votes from each other than from the ANC.

While it can be easy to ignore opposition parties, it is this weakness that allows the ANC to keep repeating this cycle.

If the ANC were under more electoral pressure, and genuinely believed it could lose national power, that pressure might translate into real renewal. If it was really worried about losing power, it would be forced to implement its stated intention to act against corruption.

To put it another way, if opposition parties were that close to taking electoral power, it is unlikely that David Mahlobo or Sisulu would still hold positions in government, and many would enjoy government food and lodging at Pollsmoor.

And it would surely be impossible for Zweli Mkhize to run for office if ANC delegates knew they would lose a general election because of the scandals he is linked to.

The strength of opposition parties matters to the health of a democracy.

It is worth repeating that one of the reasons Britain is in such a political mess is that the opposition Labour Party was so weak while the nationalists in the governing Conservative Party were pushing for Brexit. With a stronger Labour Party, Brexit may never have happened.

The apparent weakness of opposition parties may be why so many have jumped with such enthusiasm for new parties when they are launched.

It might explain why some believed the UDM, then Cope, then the Independent Democrats and then the Good Party and then perhaps the Rivonia Circle could be the new governing party.

But to believe this is to forget how difficult it is to form a party with a wide coalition of interests in our country. It is because of our extreme inequality that forming a party that covers a broad spectrum of incomes, identities and interests is always going to be difficult.

The structure of our society makes this difficult, and it’s likely that the situation will not change for some time — it may be many years before a party can come close to challenging the ANC’s breadth of support.

The ANC may continue to tolerate this kind of situation within its ranks, where it can remain divided, and allow those with question marks against their names to remain in elected positions of power.

Like so much of our politics, the true problems may well have more to do with the structure of our society than the personalities of those involved. DM

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NEC halts process in its tracks

Opposition parties fight one another