Northern Cape preview: Lots of political action in the largest, most sparsely populated province

On Wednesday, 11 November, 107 seats will be contested in by-elections in all nine provinces. This article forms part of a series in the build-up.

The ANC won an outright majority in the Northern Cape in 2019. It did lose two seats in the legislature as it fell from 20 to 18 seats, as its percentage vote share went from 64% to 58%. The DA remained the official opposition as it won an additional seat in the legislature and sent eight members to the provincial legislature. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) doubled its support in the province, winning 10% of the vote and getting three members elected to the legislature. The Vryheidsfront Plus (VF+) won a seat in the legislature, while the Congress of the People (Cope) lost its seat. 

Between 2019 and late 2020, there have been two Northern Cape by-elections where seats changed hands. The ANC lost a seat to an independent candidate in Sol Plaatje (Kimberley Galeshewe) and the ANC took a seat off the DA in Hantam (Loeriesfontein).

Namakwa District

There are two by-elections in this district. The seat of power in Namakwa is in Springbok. 

Ward 4 (Pofadder Aggenys) in Khâi-Ma. ANC (46% ) DA (40%) EFF (2%)

If you are a party activist in Ward 4 for this by-election, I hope you did not agree to travel from Witbank to Dwaggas Soutpanne on election day. That is a three-hour drive, covering 220km of gravel road, regional road and national road. Witbank is a small settlement on the banks of the Orange River on the Namibian border. Its nearest border villages are Onseepkans and Goodhouse. This is the voting district where the ANC runs up the numbers, and while it is only the third-biggest voting station, it is where the margin of victory was biggest in 2016 and on the provincial ballot in 2019. 

Most voters are in the mining town of Aggenys, which is on the N14 national road linking Pofadder to Springbok. In 2016 the voters here narrowly favoured the DA over the ANC, but in 2019 the ANC won the voting district. The second-largest concentration of voters is in a part of Pofadder next to the R358 regional gravel road, linking Pofadder to a desolate part of the Western Cape. This district was carried by the ANC in 2016 and in 2019.

Only the EFF is taking on the ANC here. It is not clear why the DA is sitting out this by-election. If the DA or another party won this ward from the ANC, the ANC would lose its majority in the council. The DA ran the ANC close here again in 2019. The EFF finished fifth here in 2019, behind the VF+ and Cope. The ANC is expected to hold this ward with ease and keep outright control of this municipality.

Ward 3 (Brandvlei) in Hantam. ANC (55%) DA (41%) EFF (1%)

This ward might have five voting stations, but 87% of voters are registered at one of those stations — at the Brandvlei Community Hall — with the remaining voters registered on farms in the district. Brandvlei sees more salt pans than people. It is on the R27 regional road linking Kenhardt with Calvinia. 

The four small rural voting districts are competitive, but the DA has the edge. The challenge for the DA is that the voters in Brandvlei itself break for the ANC. In 2016, the ANC built up a 250-vote cushion in Brandvlei and it ultimately prevailed by 236 votes in the ward. In 2019, that Brandvlei buffer was higher as the ANC beat the DA by 411 votes at the Brandvlei voting station. This is a competitive ward, but as long as the ANC continues to win at the Brandvlei Community Hall it will continue to hold this ward. The battle for third place will be between the EFF and the Khoisan Revolution (KR) party.

Pixley Ka Seme

This is where the Renosterberg by-elections will take place. For more details, please read here. The seat of power in Pixley Ka Seme is in De Aar.

Ubuntu Ward 1 (Richmond). ANC (55% PR) DA (27% PR) EFF (9% PR) 

Richmond is on the N1 national highway between Hanover in the Northern Cape and Beaufort West in the Western Cape.

Ubuntu was one of the few municipalities governed by the opposition after the 2016 elections. The DA brokered a deal with two independent councillors. That deal ultimately broke down and the independents are now working as a bloc with the ANC. There was a scenario that if the DA or an independent won this ward from the ANC, the DA could break that independent voting bloc and get one of the independents to work with the opposition bloc and reclaim the municipality. In that scenario, the opposition would hold three seats and would just need one of those independents to join them to take over Ubuntu. 

This race is not seen as competitive as the DA has chosen to sit this race out. There was also an independent candidate who came third here in 2016. The independent is also not contesting. The ANC should retain this ward with ease when it goes head to head with the EFF. The ANC will then continue to lead Ubuntu with the two independent councillors. 

ZF Mgcawu District

There are three by-elections in this district. The seat of power is in Upington. This municipality encompasses what is called the Green Kalahari and parts of the Kalahari regions of the Northern Cape. 

Ward 4 (Boichoko Postmasburg) in Tsantsabane. ANC (73%) STC (19%) EFF (6%)

The ANC finished well ahead of the pack in 2016, and did even better in this ward on the 2019 provincial ballot, winning more than 80% of the vote in the ward. This might be a safe ANC seat, but the stakes are high. If the ANC were to lose this ward, the Save Tsantsabane Coalition (STC), the DA and EFF would have the numbers to cobble together a coalition and take over the municipality. STC is a local party and the official opposition in Tsantsabane. 

Boichoko is the township on the western side of the mining town of Postmasburg. It is on the R385 road which links Postmasburg with Olifantshoek. The STC and EFF will also be on the ballot.

Ward 8 (Kanoneiland Keimoes) in Kai! Garib. ANC (55%) DA (36%) EFF (3%)

This ward is sandwiched between the N14 national road and the R359 regional road linking Keimoes with Upington. The Orange River flows through this ward. The ANC bested the DA by 298 votes in this ward in 2016. The margin was closer in 2019, with the ANC getting 142 more votes than the DA on the provincial ballots making up Ward 8. 

In 2016, the ANC won six of the eight voting districts in the ward. The Blaauws Kop is the part of the ward where the ANC triumphed by the largest margin in 2016 and 2019, winning it on both occasions by more than 100 votes. There were voting district flips for both parties when one looks at both the 2019 and the 2016 results.

The ANC won the largest district in the ward in 2019 — Kanoneiland Library — by 79 votes, after losing it by 40 votes in 2016. The DA won the second-largest district in 2019 — Soverby School — by 47 votes after losing it by 120 votes in 2016. In 2019, both parties won four of the eight voting districts in the ward. The challenge for the DA is that its margin of victory was very narrow in many of these districts. If it has any chance of flipping the ward, it will need to win in Soverby and Kanoneiland Library by a much larger margin and keep its losses at Blaauws Kop down to a respectable margin. 

The EFF is the third party contesting Ward 8.

Ward 10 (Upington Rosedale) in Dawid Kruiper. ANC (60%) DA (31%) KR (5%) EFF (3%)

The ANC won here by just shy of 500 votes in 2016 and came close to beating the DA by a margin of 2:1. This ward is north-west of the centre of Upington in the area of Rosedale. The DA made good inroads in this ward in 2019. The ANC won here by 173 votes, and by 9%. The ANC will believe it can steady the ship in this ward and win by a margin closer to the 2016 result than that of 2019. The race for third will be between the Khoisan Revolution party and the EFF. 

It is not often we get so much focus on the largest province in South Africa. This round of by-elections will not only tell us what leadership the voters in Renosterberg and Phokwane will choose, but also how voters in other regions of the province are making political choices in late 2020. DM

Wayne Sussman is an election analyst.