One step closer to ultimate victory, Ramaphosa and Mashatile dominate ANC branch nominations

23 Nov 2022

The release by the ANC’s Electoral Commission of the branch nominations ahead of the leadership conference appears to confirm predictions that President Cyril Ramaphosa will win another term as leader. They also show the real strength of support for Paul Mashatile as a likely deputy president, and that there is going to be possibly intense contestation for the position of secretary-general.

This may also mark the end of a period in which various people have been making claims with no evidence. In other words, these numbers reveal who has a constituency and who does not, with the effect of narrowing the race and reducing the number of candidates within it. But they also reveal how difficult the party is finding it to introduce proper gender equality within the ANC.

While political conferences can sometimes take on a life of their own, the results of this nomination process are the strongest indication yet that perhaps the only obstacle in the way of Ramaphosa’s second term as ANC leader is the Phala Phala scandal itself.

It appears only a finding by the parliamentary panel investigating whether there is evidence that could lead to his impeachment could prevent his reelection as leader of the ANC.

This is not just because he has more nominations than Dr Zweli Mkhize; it’s because he has more than twice the number of branches behind him than Mkhize does – Ramaphosa won the support of 2,037 branches, to Mkhize’s 916.

Also, these results show the breadth of support for Ramaphosa across the country, while Mkhize’s support is virtually confined to KwaZulu-Natal (he received 643 nominations there, along with 62 from the Eastern Cape, 27 from the Free State and 64 from Gauteng, and virtually nothing from the other provinces).

Ramaphosa received more support in every other province, and was the leading candidate in all eight of them. But in KZN he received only 60 nominations.

This also appears to underscore what may be the growing difference between the ANC in KZN and the party in the rest of the country. This distance may result in the KZN ANC losing out on a top six position again (while the leading candidate for the secretary general post, Mdumiseni Ntuli, is from KZN, the leadership and the province have not backed him). And, if the party loses control of the province in 2024, this could accelerate its slide towards political impotence.

Meanwhile, Paul Mashatile is clearly the frontrunner, by a large margin, for the position of deputy leader. He received 1,791 nominations, compared with 427 for Ronald Lamola and 397 for Oscar Mabuyane.

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Here, the provincial support is fascinating. Mashatile won in seven provinces, losing only in the Eastern Cape (Mabuyane’s home province) and in Mpumalanga (Lamola’s home province). The fact he received such strong support in KZN is also crucial.

In short, it seems virtually impossible for him not to win the deputy presidency in December.

The position of secretary general, so keenly contested five years ago, again appears to be closer than some of the others.

Mdumiseni Ntuli received 1,225 nominations, Phumulo Masualle 889 and Fikile Mbalula 749.

Ntuli is a fascinating figure in this race. He did not receive the support of his home province, where KZN backed Eastern Cape native, Masualle. But Ntuli received more than enough support from other provinces to overcome this.

Of course, it would be fascinating if Masualle won this contest. He has consistently said in his campaign that he believes Ramaphosa should be removed from office. Were he to somehow overcome Ntuli, this could well lead to a situation similar to what happened five years ago, when it was apparent that Ramaphosa and Ace Magashule would not be able to work together.

The release of these results suggests that, for the first time since the 2007 Polokwane conference, Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe may not be in the top six national officials of the ANC.

For the position of national chair, he received 978 nominations, compared with 1,492 for Limpopo premier Stanley Mathabatha. This appears to suggest Mathabatha is in a strong position.

Meanwhile, in the position of deputy secretary general, Nomvula Mokonyane won nominations from 1,779 branches, virtually twice the number received by Fébé Potgieter.

This suggests, despite her complicated back story, that she will win the post.

However, this also underscores the problems the ANC is having with gender. Despite having done probably more than any other political party to ensure gender equality in its top leadership, it appears from this process that there will be only one woman in its top six officials – once again the position of Deputy Secretary-General.

The position of treasurer has perhaps thrown up the biggest surprise in this process, with current presidential advisor, Benjamin Chauke, receiving the highest number of nominations, at 552. Current ANC spokesperson Pule Mabe received 428 and former Ekurhuleni mayor Mzwandile Masina won 348.

There were very few predictions, if any, that Chauke would receive so much support here.

His support appears strongest in provinces like Limpopo, North West and the Northern Cape.

While the short-term focus of these numbers will be on those who now appear likely to win positions, it is also important to examine what has happened to those who appear likely to lose out.

For example, Cogta Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma has been campaigning and giving interviews in which she has spoken much about gender. However, she has been roundly rejected by branches (she won 81 nominations for ANC leader). In KZN, she won even fewer branches than Ramaphosa (he received 65, she received 24).

While this may be important to her, it may also matter to former president Jacob Zuma. He had said, publicly, that she was his preferred candidate for the position of leader.

The former president himself won 73 nominations for the position of national chair (compared with Mathabatha’s 1,492). This may be another indication of what appears to be his waning political power.

They are not the only people to lose out. Lindiwe Sisulu’s campaign of blaming Ramaphosa and the Constitution for our country’s problems does not appear to have worked.

Her 66 nominations for the position of leader surely show conclusively that she has no constituency. Her spectacular failure just proves that she is now officially irrelevant.

Andile Lungisa too is now a “once ran” for the position of treasurer.

But no one has lost so much as current Deputy President David Mabuza. He received 196 nominations for ANC president and just 77 for deputy president. Barring major shocks, it seems as though his career in national politics may be about to end.

While this phase of the nomination process is over, it is not the final story. As the ANC’s Electoral Commission was careful to point out on Tuesday, people can still be nominated from the floor at the conference.

However, there may be important reasons this is unlikely. First, anyone wanting to challenge would need 25% of delegates in a show of hands. For this to occur, it would require the most precise and secret political manoeuvring.

Also, it is not clear what would happen in the moments after such a move was revealed.

In 2017, the ANC’s Nasrec conference appeared to come close to collapse in its final hours, as delegates debated (and appeared to fight over) the issue of land expropriation without compensation.

Were roughly 1,000 delegates to now show their hands for someone unexpectedly from the floor, it is difficult to predict what would happen next. But it is likely that supporters of other candidates would be surprised, and probably shocked. That could lead to a very difficult situation on the main conference floor.

While this process is not yet over (the list of candidates for the national executive committee is still to come) and much can happen at the conference itself, there is now the strongest indication that it is possible to predict the outcome of the ANC’s leadership election.

This is largely because it has become much more transparent than in the past.

This must be good for the party. And the country. DM

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