The purpose of this letter is to address the current impasse in the US-South Africa relationship.
Dear Congressmen/Congresswomen
Let me say at the outset, the very idea of South Africa as a nation is at first absurd. That a nation so divided by race, so brutalised by history and so incoherent can be united in its diversity, is unthinkable. Yet, we are largely peaceful.
That in such a cacophony of difference and diversity, South Africa can produce a life of dignity and hope for its people, is unimaginable. But that is the miracle of South Africa as a democratic experiment precisely because of these internal contradictions, which provides the impetus for us to succeed, and we will.
I write this letter, because I expect that in the coming two years, South Africa will experience a period of financial, economic and social turbulence, and I would like to put some matters in perspective before these events. It is also my aim to provide you with a nuanced perspective of the reality of South Africa, apart from the noise in the policy and political discourse.
The importance of friendship between South Africa and the US
Globally, we find ourselves in a time of great upheaval. A time in which the very fabric of human society is under strain and the foundations of normality are shifting. This is true in many parts of the world, including in the world’s stable democracies, as you well know.
It is during such times that lasting friendships are vitally important. Friendships that are based on mutual regard and shared interests will be what carry us from one side of this torrent of change to the other, where a better future lies in wait to be created for us all.
South Africa is not immune to the forces of change reshaping our world. Internally, we continue to have our own conflicts as the lingering harms of racial distrust, inequity, and abuse of power by extractive elites undermine the liberty and happiness of our people.
Our domestic challenges have grown more acute. Corruption and the mismanagement of public resources, organised crime and the systemic breakdown of key institutions severely undermine our nation’s ability to create shared prosperity.
During this tumult it may be possible to lose sight of who we are and who we aspire to be as society.
What is South Africa?
Some of our friends are asking, “Is South Africa truly a free and democratic society, with a sincere commitment to human rights and the personal dignity of every citizen?”
When one looks at the recent performance of our elected representatives one might surmise that South Africa is just another failing state in post-colonial Africa. Or that South Africa is just another middle-income country caught perpetually in a low-growth debt trap. That our next chapter in national development will be one of broad decline.
One may also observe how South Africa has mishandled the international affairs of the past three years with growing belligerence towards some of our longstanding friends. We seem to be putting ourselves at risk of becoming just another uncooperative, weak and attention-seeking kleptocracy on the international stage.
These stereotypes contain echoes of rightful criticism, but do not accurately depict who and what the South African people are. Allow me to explain.
Response to war in Europe and Palestine
In the past two years the African National Congress (ANC) in government has opted to preach non-alignment in relation to the US-led opposition to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The ANC’s former mouthpiece in the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, then minister Naledi Pandor, has been vocal about South Africa’s justification for refusing to condemn the war outright. More recently, prominent political figures in South Africa have boldly declared South Africa’s alliance with Russia.
I assure you, however, that this is not a reflection of the nuanced position of South Africa as a people. It is a mere projection of an ideological bent within the ANC, underpinned by an anti-western bias and neo-Soviet nostalgia by which the ANC justifies its own outdated and myopic obsession with a one party, state-centric worldview.
It is the same ideology that prevents the ANC from, for instance, seeing with moral clarity, and neutrality, the complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian situation. It is why the ANC has not opted to condemn the actions of all parties, but instead chose sides on the basis of a monolithic moral misjudgment, rooted in a projection of its own sense of historic victimhood.
In contrast, South Africans, I assure you, can see for themselves who is in the wrong and who represents a form of society and international community of which one would want to be part. South Africans can see for ourselves who is a bad actor and who has been an irresponsible actor. We also see with clarity who is the victim in each case and would call for an approach of higher principle than any of the parties in this crisis are currently committed to.
US-Sino relations
On the matter of US-Sino relations allow me to make a similar plea. As the momentum of the BRICS+ formation increases with the build-out of its institutions and prospects of new members, it is unsurprising that the ANC’s representatives in government posture with an increasing arrogance when discussing multilateral reform.
It is after all the same ANC that ceded control of the South African state to the corrupt Gupta family during the State Capture era under then president Jacob Zuma, that now anticipates itself being adorned with prestige and benefits at the hand of new suitors. These attitudes projected by the ANC are not representative of the sentiments and will of the South African people.
South Africa respects the people of the United States, and the role of the United Nations, and recognises with simple pragmatism the need for our state to maintain good relations with you and other global societies, including China. But we know better than to believe naively that a new club of the marginalised gathered narrowly around China’s national interests and grand strategy provides a context in which our own interests will best be advanced. We know that historic injustices that occurred between African states and others will not be righted in this way.
South Africans, like Africans north of us on the rest of the continent, also know which strings are attached in each case and that these will eventually result in the upending of the elites who in self-interest commit us to forms of relations that undermine our sovereignty and internal integrity. This applies to all powers, including of course those in the West.
What South Africans desire is mutual respect, mutual benefit, and friendship, especially given our tragic historic experience with extractive relations. If we do in the coming decade see an escalation of conflict between the US and China, over Taiwan or over economic competition, we will consider that a human tragedy of historic proportions. We would instead call for a recalibration of these great powers’ national strategies within the constraints of mutually beneficial peaceful coexistence, which is in everyone’s interests, including ours.
Energy insecurity at home
Domestically, South Africa’s growing ineptitude at managing our energy security and the reform of the state-owned energy utility Eskom has left an indelible mark on our reputation as a developing market. The Eskom debacle is a significant medium-term setback, in contradiction to our proactive participation in, and commitment to, the Paris Agreement.
Unfortunately, we must lay blame on our current ruling elite who have swindled the resources allocated for addressing the matter, abusing the state institution for personal gain, while operating with duplicity in relation to the policy and regulatory choices required to arrest the decline. South Africans admit that this is an embarrassing display of what our so-called national leadership is capable, or should I say incapable of.
Truth be told, we are better than this as South Africans. Our immediate problem is that many of those who rule us no longer respect any rule but their self-interest. They have for so long enjoyed the benefits of incumbency that they have near perfected the art of performative liberation struggle, while they shamelessly pasture themselves on their own people.
The period ahead
Let me assure you that South Africans are wide awake and alive to all these realities. Let me remind you that South Africa has a people who stared down the barrel of apartheid’s guns with dignity, resolve and moral clarity. Let me therefore appeal to you not to write South Africa off quite yet, or to allow these poor indicators of our national character to convince you wrongly of who we really are.
I anticipate that the political landscape in South Africa will shift notably in the coming decade along two dimensions. Firstly, after the current experiment with the Government of National Unity (GNU), local politics will eclipse national politics as a volatile pattern of coalition arrangements become the new norm. Secondly, the state will be forced to operate with much fewer resources, as a reckoning takes place in our public finances. If these happen, the poor will in some instances vent their anger against public and private institutions.
In our economic heartland, the Gauteng ANC will most likely experiment with a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), for the Presidency. The resulting leftist orientation in the government will fail dismally in the following way: within the first two years, a combination of indigenisation and accelerated land reform policies and a related fiscal crisis will push the Presidency into announcing a state of emergency.
By this time, however, the formal private sector will have largely hedged itself against the associated risks and the economic cost will be borne most starkly by the segment of voters most reliant on the state, such as the urban poor. A total of 27 million citizens now survive on monthly cash transfers from the state in the form of grants. What this will do is accelerate the trend towards local politics as a focus.
My hope is that the crisis will give rise to a new level of civic agency and democratic centres of power growing in opposition to the ANC. I expect the Democratic Alliance (DA) will seek cooperation with the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) in KwaZulu-Natal, with some initial success hampered largely in terms of progress by the endemic breakdown of governance that has taken hold at provincial level in that province. Poorer and less populist regions will be bedeviled by a lack of meaningful economic investment, coupled with a failing social safety net. The prospect for the poor is bleak.
In this environment our friends in the US will wonder whether South Africa is descending into total social and political anarchy. The answer is, no we are not. Instead, we need your consistent support, especially in terms of economic relief.
While it is likely that parts of the country will see an increase in insecurity, especially as the inflationary pressures from the mishandling of our economy make their way through the system, there will not be a wholesale collapse. Rather, as is currently the case, there will be sporadic, localised and mostly uncoordinated tensions. As the center comes undone, communities will pull together to manage our domestic affairs at a local level. Insecurity will give birth to self-sufficiency, as is the natural order.
It is in light thereof that I urge you to keep your friendship with us alive, and productive, in spite of the ways in which the conduct of our elites may offend you or how the signals of our decline may concern you.
South Africa needs time
South Africa needs to outgrow the convulsions of being ruled by elites who know hardly anything about managing a modern, sophisticated economy. We need to live through a couple more decades of our democratic experiment, to give us time to cement within ourselves the conviction that the rule of law and a state capable of governing are crucial components of a functional and free society.
We need the delusionary loyalties to our liberation leaders to get worked out of our consciousness by witnessing their inadequacies. We need to arrive at the conclusion that we can select better leaders from among ourselves. We need time to grow our democratic muscle, and to thereby right our ship.
During this time, I ask that you afford us more of your attention, your commitment and your loyalty. Why should you do so amid the clamor and confusion? Because you also believe in the promise of South Africa and liberty. We have the imagination, the wherewithal, and the will to turn our liberty into progress. What we need is your unflinching support. DM