Patriotic Alliance piles pressure on DA, ANC as its growth surge continues in Western and Eastern Cape wards

21 Nov 2024

The Patriotic Alliance won a seat off the ANC in Matzikama in the West Coast District of the Western Cape. The National Coloured Congress and the PA also made inroads into the key DA-held seat of Manenberg in Cape Town, while the ANC had to contend with DA and PA growth in the town of Bedford in Raymond Mhlaba, Eastern Cape.

Western Cape

Ward 30 (Manenberg) Cape Town: DA 43% (61%) NCC 21% (4%) PA 20% (2%) ANC 11% (11%) ACDP 3% (5%) Al Jama-ah 1% (5%) MK 1% TRUTH <1%

The setting: Manenberg sits between Hanover Park and Gugulethu on the Cape Flats, east of the Cape Town city centre. A railway line separates Manenberg from Gugulethu and Nyanga. Not many communities have an iconic jazz piece named after it. Abdullah Ibrahim, Basil Coetzee and Robbie Jansen’s Manenberg pays homage to this very area and the injustices of apartheid. Rugby player Suleiman Hartzenberg also hails from this community.

The 2021 local government election: The DA beat the ANC by 50 percentage points to win comfortably. The party did, however, lose some footing in Manenberg with a variety of parties taking slivers of DA support.

The DA won all eight voting districts, even edging the ANC at Phoenix High School near Gugulethu. The party did best at Edendale Primary School near Olifants Park where it won over 70% of the vote. It won more than 55% in seven of the eight voting districts and more than 60% in five districts.

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA beat the ANC by a margin of close to four votes to one, but the DA did fall below the 50% mark, getting 49%. The ANC was second with 13% and the National Coloured Congress (NCC) coming third with a gallant 11%, more than doubling its 2021 percentage return. Al Jama-ah also made some inroads, beating the Patriotic Alliance (PA) for fourth place with a 7% total. The PA finished just behind on 6%.

The DA’s decline in 2024 was attributed to some losses to the NCC, PA and Al Jama-ah. The DA’s differential turnout advantage against the ANC was also more subdued compared with the 2021 local elections. The DA’s best return was at the Manenberg People’s Centre near Duinefontein Road where it won 59%. The party won more than 50% of the vote in six of the eight voting districts. It struggled at Sherwood Park, where it finished first with 46%, and at Phoenix High School with just more than 30%.

The ANC beat the DA at Phoenix High School and won more than 15% at Manenberg Primary. The NCC hovered around 15% in three of the eight voting districts. It did best at Sherwood Park Community Centre (16%). Al Jama-ah did best at Sherwood Park as well, getting 14%. The PA won 10% at Edendale Primary School.

The by-election: The ward councillor died following a long illness. An African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) proportional representation (PR) councillor defected to the DA to stand as its ward candidate. The NCC fielded a community activist and the PA put up a community leader who started a well-regarded night class programme for residents to improve their education.

The DA retained the ward in the by-election but lost ground to the NCC and the PA. As per the May provincial election, the DA won the same seven of the eight voting districts. It was only able to breach the 50% mark in two districts. In May, it won more than 50% of the vote in six.

The NCC finished second in this ward because of impressive showings in two districts. It won 35% of the vote at The Downs Civic Centre – this was not even one of the party’s top three voting districts in May. It also won 30% in Sherwood Park and 29% at Rio Grande Primary School. Despite only beating the PA in three of the eight districts, its returns in those three were enough to hold off the PA for the runner-up spot in Manenberg.

The PA did best at Manenberg Primary School where it won 29%. At Edendale Primary School, where the DA did best in 2021, the PA obtained 26%. Turnout was highest here in the by-election. Edendale is where the PA received the most support in May. The party matched its Edendale return at the Manenberg People’s Centre. This district is where the DA did best in May. The PA was able to hurt the DA here.

The ANC fell from second to fourth in the ward, beaten by the NCC and PA in seven of the eight voting districts. It did, however, win more than 50% of the vote in the Phoenix High district. This allowed the party to match its 2021 return. The result in that district is positive for the ANC.

Al Jama-ah fell well off the pace in this by-election, finishing behind the ACDP. At Sherwood Park, the party collapsed from 14% to 2%.

The DA has its work cut out in Manenberg as the NCC and PA have continued to build on their success from May. The DA will know it cannot rest on its Western Cape laurels from May.

Poll: 35% (44%)

Ward 6 (Klawer) Matzikama, West Coast District: PA 40% (15%) DA 31% (32%) ANC 27% (38%) FF+ 2% (4%)

The setting: Klawer is north of Clanwilliam, just off the N7 national road between the national road and the Olifants River. The small town is southeast of Vredendal and south of Vanrhynsdorp. The area is known for its unforgiving summer temperatures and its wine farms and fruit and vegetable farms.

The Matzikama Municipality includes the towns of Vanrhynsdorp, Vredendal and Lutzville, and forms part of the West Coast district which extends to Malmesbury, Piketberg and Clanwilliam.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Questions over governance loom before Matzikama by-election

The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the DA by 142 votes. The ANC won the two Klawer North voting districts. This is the part of the ward with the largest number of registered voters. The DA won the Klawer voting district and the sparsely populated farming district surrounding much of the town.

The DA was the largest party after the 2021 local elections, winning six of the 15 seats. The ANC lost half of its seats to finish second on four. The PA emerged as the third-most-popular party with two. GOOD, the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) and EFF won a single seat each. The DA and FF+ relied on the outside support of the EFF to form a government, the future of which was dependent on the support of the EFF.

The DA did win a PA ward in a by-election in 2022 in Vanrhynsdorp. This saw the DA and the FF+ have the numbers to form a more stable government as the DA now had seven of the 15 seats and the FF+’s one seat was enough for an 8/15 majority in the council.

The 2024 provincial elections: The PA shocked the two established Klawer parties to finish first here with 36%. The ANC was second with 30% and the DA just behind on 29%. The PA won the Klawer North Community Hall district, while the ANC came first in the other Klawer North district, the St James Anglican Church. The DA won the other two voting districts, the Klawer district and the farming district.

The results in the municipality were interesting. The DA was the most popular party with 45% of the vote, but it was down 5 percentage points, with the bulk of that support going to the PA. The PA was second with 23%, a very impressive showing. The ANC fell to third (39% to 22%), with a huge chunk of that support going to the PA. The FF+ was fourth on 4%, up a percentage point from 2019. The EFF remained on 3% while GOOD went from 2% to 1%.

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor defected to the DA. The PA was hoping to replicate its first place in the ward from May, while the ANC wanted its Klawer North machine to click back into gear after a tough election in Matzikama in May. The FF+ was also on the ballot, with a rare foray into a West Coast by-election.

The PA beat the DA by 220 votes. It was able to build on its impressive first place here in May to beat the DA by nine percentage points. The PA’s victory was built around the two vote-rich voting districts in Klawer North. At St James Anglican Church turnout was 65%, 23% higher than in the Klawer centre and a staggering 29% higher than the sparsely populated voting district.

The PA took both the Klawer North voting districts off the ANC, surging from 20% to 46% at the Klawer Community Hall. Here the ANC’s support essentially halved from 45% to 23%, while the DA was able to grow from 24% to 31%, but it was not enough to stop the PA from building a big buffer. At the St James Anglican Church the PA went from 17% to 43%, with the ANC receding from 46% to 34%. The DA grew slightly from 20% to 23%. GOOD received 10% of the vote in both Klawer North districts in 2021. It not on the ballot this time.

While the DA registered growth in Klawer North, it was unable to increase its returns in the Klawer centre. In the NG Kerk district the party slipped from 70% to 66%. The PA grew here from 2% to 13% to come close to beating the FF+ for second place in this district. The FF+ went from 16% to 14%. The low turnout in this district did not help the DA’s cause either.

The DA increased its vote percentage on the farms from 40% to 56%, but the low turnout here too counted against it. The PA grew from 10% to 14%.

This win sees the PA win a second seat on the council. It means the DA will need to continue to work with the FF+ to govern in Matzikama. The ANC fell from four seats to three. It only has one more seat than the PA now.

The ANC has to reconnect with communities like Klawer North on the road to 2026 or it could turn out to be a difficult election night on the West Coast come the local government elections.

Poll: 58% (57%)

Eastern Cape

Ward 23 (Bedford Nyarha) Raymond Mhlaba, Amathole: ANC 59% (67%) DA 21% (15%) PA 19% (7%) IFP <1% TRUTH <1%

The setting: Bedford is located on the R63 regional road which links KwaNojoli (formerly Somerset East) with Adelaide. Bedford is also connected to Makhanda (formerly Grahamstown) via the R360 regional road. The town is known for its gardens, the beautiful Cowie Valley and its annual garden festival. Ward 23 includes the townships of Nonzwakazi and Bhongweni. Raymond Mhlaba extends to KwaMaqoma (formerly Forth Beaufort), Adelaide and Hogsback.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC won more than two-thirds of the vote, winning by large margins in the townships around Bedford. The DA beat the EFF for second place, with the red berets getting 10% of the vote.

The ANC won 33 of the 45 seats in Raymond Mhlaba. The ANC did lose three seats to independent candidates with the more established opposition parties. The EFF and the DA won three seats each.

The 2024 provincial Elections: The ANC won 61% of the vote in Bedford, down from the 67% it won in 2019. The DA finished second in the ward with 15%, well down from the 23% it secured in 2019. The PA came third in the ward with 8%. Much of its vote was at the expense of the DA. The EFF was fourth with 7%, slightly up from 6% in 2019.

The ANC slipped from 81% to 77% in Raymond Mhlaba. The EFF was runner-up with 10%, narrowly up from 9% in 2019. The DA was third again, getting 6%, down from 7% in 2019. The PA came fourth with 2%.

The by-election: Ward councillor Mpho Mahleza was shot dead while sitting in his car outside his home. No arrests have been made.

The ANC retained the seat by winning two of the four voting districts. It built a big buffer by bagging 87% of the vote in Bongweni. This was all but the same percentage it obtained in 2021. The DA benefited the most here from the EFF’s absence by moving from 1% to 9%. The EFF won 10% in 2021.

In vote-rich Nonzwakazi, the ANC went from 83% to 79%, while the PA jumped from 2% to 11% and the DA from 2% to 10%. The EFF came second with 13% in 2021.

Read more: Daily Maverick’s by-election coverage

The DA grew in the Bedford town centre from 43% to 53%, with the ANC declining from 37% to 24%. The PA tripled its support here from 7% to 21%. The EFF was third here in 2021 with 9%.

In Goodwin Park, the PA moved from third to first place, climbing from 28% to 44%. The party fell from first to second with a drop from 37% to 31%. The ANC also declined here, getting 25%, down from 32%. Turnout in Goodwin Park was 12% to 14% higher than the rest of the ward.

The ANC will be satisfied with this hold but will wonder why it was unable to win over EFF supporters.

Poll: 53% (50%)

Next By-Elections

The next round of by-elections will be on 4 December where there will be a big chunk of voting activity. All registered voters in Thabazimbi, Limpopo will have the opportunity to go to the polls and elect a new council when all 12 wards and 11 PR seats will be up for grabs. There will also be by-elections in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North West, Northern Cape and Western Cape, with a number expected to be close contests. DM

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