PA shrugs off challenges to retain key George ward, DA survives big FF+ scare in Tshwane on day of easy wins

24 Oct 2024

The Patriotic Alliance doubled its support to retain a key seat in a George by-election while the DA retained all five wards it was defending, despite getting a fright from the Freedom Front Plus in Tshwane.

Western Cape

Ward 20 (Borcherds) in George, Garden Route: PA 52% (26%) DA 31% (23%) ANC 12% (22%) Good 4% (6%)

The setting: Borcherds is south of the George town centre and sits above the N2. The ward includes the Steinhoff Industrial Park. George is the third-most-populous municipality in the Western Cape and the seat of power for the Garden Route district.

The 2023 by-election: This was a historic result for the PA as it won its first by-election in the Garden Route district. In 2021 it won just 1% of the vote in the ward. It was a four-horse race with the local Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners (PBI) winning more than 20% to finish fourth. The PA beat the DA by 57 votes. The 2023 by-election took place because the Good party ward councillor defected to the DA.

The 2024 provincial elections: The PA was again the most popular party in the ward with its 39% haul. The DA was second with 30%, well down from 41% in 2019. The ANC fell sharply from 32% to 19%. The EFF was fourth on 7% after only winning 1% here in 2019. What spurred on the red berets here was the endorsement of the PBI. Good fell from 13% to 2%.

The PA was able to take support from the ANC, DA and Good in this ward.

The DA won 52% of the vote in George, up 1% from its 2019 mark. The ANC had a big drop from 30% to 19% as the PA surged to third place with 16%. The EFF was fourth with 5%, up from 3% in 2019. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) finished fifth on 4%, the same as 2019.

The 2024 by-election: Ward councillor Christo Alexander defected from the PA to the DA in August. The PA chose a local activist as its candidate, with the ANC fielding the same candidate from the 2023 by-election, a housing activist known for advocating for better living conditions for the backyard dwellers in this ward.

The PA retained the ward comfortably, beating the DA by 536 votes. The PA doubled its percentage support compared with the previous by-election. At Heidedal Primary School, the PA beat the DA by 581 votes, with a 58% haul in this populous district. While the DA won the other voting district, the margin was much closer. PBI voters made their way to the PA in this by-election. This is an important development for the 2026 local government elections because the PBI founder is now an EFF MP.

The ANC continued to lose ground when one compares its 12% to the 22% it obtained in the 2023 by-election and the 19% it garnered on the provincial ballot in May. The ANC will be dissatisfied with this showing as it fielded a credible, well-known candidate. Good was well off the pace in the by-election. Many of its supporters moved over to the PA in the 2023 by-election and remained there for the national election and this by-election.

Despite the former PA ward councillor standing for the DA, the PA withstood that challenge and has now finished first in this ward in three consecutive elections. The PA is firmly entrenched in Borcherds and will aim to use this as a springboard for major growth in this key Western Cape municipality.

Good laid a complaint with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) against the PA and the DA. Good said “people claiming to represent the DA and the PA” were offering food parcels and drugs, and also threatening voters if they voted for another party.

Poll: 60% (58%)

Ward 8 (Brackenfell) Cape Town: DA 85% (84%) CAPE 13% (1%) ANC 1% (2%) TRUTH <1%

The setting: Brackenfell is a suburb well east of the Cape Town city centre and is the gateway to the Cape Winelands, sitting next to the Stellenbosch municipality. Behemoths such as Shoprite Checkers and Food Lover’s Market are located in Brackenfell. Many braais have also been blessed by Brackenfell with Jimmy’s Sauces hailing from these parts. Although not in Ward 8, but still from Brackenfell, Springbok speedsters Cheslin Kolbe and Courtnall Skosan both made their marks in Brackenfell.

The 2021 local government election: It was a landslide for the DA, with the FF+ coming a distant second with 6%.

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA won 86% of the vote here, up from 81% in 2019. The FF+ finished second with 3%, down from 6% in 2019. The ANC fell from 4% to 2%.

The by-election: Veteran ward councillor and mayoral committee member Mariaan Nieuwoudt retired. The FF+ elected not to contest this by-election.

The DA all but replicated its 2024 and 2021 showing, with the Cape Independence Party (CAPE) winning more than 10% of the vote. CAPE clearly won over some FF+ voters in this by-election. CAPE won 23% in the Bastion Primary School voting district in Protea Heights. This is where most of the votes were cast. It also garnered 23% of the vote in another Protea Heights district.

The DA won more than 90% in two of the six districts, in the western part of the ward. Its best showing was 95% at Curro Brackenfell School in Sonkring.

Poll: 17% (60%)

Ward 8 (Coetzenburg) Stellenbosch, Cape Winelands: DA 99% (85%) ANC 1% (4%) TRUTH

The setting: Ward 8 has many landmarks. It includes the Maties rugby team’s home ground, the Danie Craven Stadium, which hosted World Cup matches in 1995. It also includes the Coetzenburg Stadium, where Stephen Mokoka broke the national 5,000m record in 2015. Many other national bests have been set on this hallowed track. Coetzenburg also includes the home ground of Stellenbosch FC, the Premier Soccer League club. The ward has a sizeable student population residing in the ward since it is next to the main campus of Stellenbosch University.

The 2021 local government elections: The DA romped home while the ANC edged the FF+ for second place. The DA won 28 of the 45 seats. The party lost two seats, with Good taking the bulk of that DA support. The ANC remained steady on eight and GOOD won three. The EFF won two and a raft of other parties won one seat each.

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA won 82% of the vote, up from 78% in 2019. The EFF surprised the ANC by finishing second in this ward with 7%, after getting 3% in 2019. The ANC fell from 9% to 2%.

The by-election: Ward councillor Carli van Wyk was offered a job by new Home Affairs Minister Leon Schreiber.

Stellenbosch University will hope that its students who are currently in exam season fare better than the turnout percentage in this ward. Turnout was a woeful 4%. Turnout tends to be poor in by-elections in student-rich areas, and it was very poor here.

The DA received 213 out of the 216 votes in this by-election to win 99% of the vote. The party will be happy with this emphatic win but hope that more students register and show up in 2026. The ANC beat the Truth and Solidarity Movement by one vote to finish in second place. Two people voted for the ANC in this by-election.

Poll: 4% (33%)

Gauteng

Ward 84 (The Moot Queenswood) Tshwane: DA 63% (66%) FF+ 36% (21%) ANC 1% (3%) TRUTH <1% Bolsheviks <1% (0%)

The setting: Ward 84 forms part of The Moot area of Pretoria. It is northeast of the city centre and includes Queenswood, a chunk of Villieria, Rietondale, Moregloed, Kilner Park and Waverley.

The 2021 local government elections: The DA won two-thirds of the vote but lost ground in this ward. The FF+ won more than 20%, more than tripling its support, while ActionSA came third with 5%. The FF+ won 27% in the Kilner Park area and 29% in a district which includes Waverley and Moregloed.

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA made a slight increase on its 2019 returns with 67% of the vote, with the FF+ dipping to 16%, down five percentage points. ActionSA finished behind the ANC and EFF on 2%.

The by-election: The veteran ward councillor died following a protracted illness. The DA was able to retain this seat, but was given a serious run for its money by the FF+.

The FF+ won two of the four Queenswood voting districts with more than 50% of the vote in both. It also won more than 40% in the two other Queenswood districts where the DA edged it out.

The DA did best in Kilner Park where it won more than 80% and in the more vote-rich area of Villieria where it obtained 70%.

The DA would have hoped for a stronger showing, especially after the recent ousting of the former mayor Cilliers Brink. The FF+ did, however, back Brink and stood by him in the vote that determined his fate. The DA will have to sit down with its new ward councillor and work out how to win back the support it lost in Queenswood in this by-election.

This result will motivate the FF+. The party knows that Pretoria is a traditional haven of FF+ support and that it needs to build on this performance and continue to work on voters who backed the DA and ActionSA in the past two elections.

Poll: 27% (60%)

Mpumalanga

Ward 7 (Ermelo Central) Msukaligwa, Gert Sibande: DA 52% (41%) PA 27% ANC 21% (24%) TRUTH 0%

The setting: Ermelo is the principal town in Msukaligwa. This ward is in the heart of Ermelo. It is also the administrative centre of this key Mpumalanga town. Other towns in the municipality are Chrissiesmeer and Lothair. This is the home municipality of late musician Lucky Dube and big-hitting cricketer Lizelle Lee.

The 2021 local government election: The DA prevailed in a three-horse race. It won both the voting districts. The ANC and FF+ traded places in the two districts for second place. The FF+ finished just behind the ANC on 23%.

The ANC lost ground in Msukaligwa, losing five seats to win 24 of the 38 seats. The EFF was the main beneficiary here, winning four additional seats to get seven. The DA came third with four, the FF+ won two and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) won the remaining seat.

The 2024 provincial election: The DA came first with 42% of the vote, up four percentage points from 38% in 2019. uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) surprised everyone by finishing second with 18%. The ANC fell from 28% to 16%, clearly hurt by MK. The FF+ tumbled from 20% to 11%. The EFF dipped slightly from 8% to 7%. The PA barely featured, winning less than a percent.

The DA carried both districts, with MK coming second in both and the ANC third in both, followed by the FF+ which ended fourth in both districts.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. There were concerns about registration irregularities, with non-ward residents registering for the by-election. Two key parties in the ward, MK and the FF+, sat out the by-election. The DA was again able to win both voting districts in the ward to retain the seat in a low-turnout by-election. The DA’s percentage tally all but replicated the combined DA and FF+ percentage in May on the provincial ballot. The PA finished second with 27%. The party fielded community activist Juliet Basson as its candidate. It won more than 20% of the vote in both districts. This is a significant uptick from a few months ago when it barely registered any support in the ward.

The ANC will be disappointed with its third-place finish as both MK and EFF did not contest here. TRUTH received zero votes. This means the candidate did not even bother to show up and vote for themselves.

Poll: 20% (43%)

Ward 24 (Model Park Witbank Ext 12) Emalahleni, Nkangala: DA 89% (60%) ANC 11% (9%)

The setting: Most of the voters in Ward 24 live in Model Park, east of the town centre. The ward does include a section of the centre of Emalahleni, the eastern centre of this coal-mining town. This is the home municipality of Percy Tau and Hugh Masekela.

The 2021 local government elections: The DA won 60% of the vote, with the FF+ coming second with 20%. The DA swept all the voting districts. The ANC edged the EFF for third place as the latter finished on 8%.

The ANC won 35 of the 68 seats. The EFF emerged as the official opposition with 14 seats, with the DA just behind on 13. The FF+ obtained four. The ACDP and African Independent Congress (AIC) shared the remaining two.

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA won 58% of the vote here, well up from the 46% it received in 2019. This was largely off the FF+ which fell from 16% to 8% to finish fourth. The EFF finished second on 12%, the same as in 2019. The EFF also won a voting district in downtown Emalahleni. The ANC fell sharply from 24% to 10%. MK came fifth with 7%.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. With only two parties on the ballot, both the DA and the ANC had the opportunity to increase their vote share, which they did. The DA won more than 90% in three of the four districts. The ANC bagged one district, winning the Taalfees Primary School district near the town centre. However, turnout was only 8%, owing to tertiary exams and the absence of the EFF on the ballot.

Poll: 19% (54%)

The next by-election will be on 13 November when the DA defends a competitive seat in Polokwane. DM

Read more: Previous by-election results

Categories:

Tags:

DM is much better if you are signed in...

Politics